The Dictatorship
It’s not whether there will be a shutdown — it’s how much of government will close
With less than 72 hours until most of the federal government runs out of funding, a partial shutdown now appears likely. The more pressing question is how much of the government will close — and for how long.
Senate Democrats told MS NOW that their support for a Department of Homeland Security funding bill hinges on new restrictions on President Donald Trump’s immigration enforcement agencies.
Republicans, who are also facing political pressure after officers killed two U.S. citizens in Minnesota, say they’re open to hearing the Democratic proposals. But time is short, and any agreement would need to clear both chambers of Congress — with House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., signaling no plans to bring the House back from recess.
Instead, Johnson and other GOP leaders are urging Senate Democrats to join Republicans in passing the remaining six of the 12 annual appropriations bills without changes, even though Democrats are adamant they won’t do that.
As Friday night’s deadline looms, lawmakers need to move quickly to avert a funding lapse that could affect roughly four-fifths of federal agency budgets.
But there’s a massive barrier in the way. Republicans want a handshake agreement with Trump on changes at Immigration and Customs Enforcement, rather than codifying restrictions in the Homeland Security funding bill itself. Democrats say they don’t trust the administration to follow through.
“Can’t trust anything, any promises this administration makes,” Sen. Chris Murphy, D-Conn., said Tuesday. “It’s got to be in legislation so there’s no way around that.”
Murphy, the top Democrat on the subcommittee that funds the Department of Homeland Security, told MS NOW late Tuesday that he expects his caucus to propose a number of changes to the DHS funding bill. In the meantime, Democrats are pushing to strip DHS funding out of the broader six-bill package in order to keep other agencies operating past the deadline.
Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-S.D., opposes that approach. While he said he’d listen to Democratic proposals, he wants the six-bill funding package to stay intact.
“If there are things the Democrats want in the Homeland bill that are addressed in the context of this situation, then they ought to make those clear and known, and see to what degree the administration may be able to address that,” Thune told reporters Tuesday. “So I would prefer that there be a way that we keep the package together.”
Any changes to the six-bill, $1.3 trillion funding package would force House lawmakers to return from recess to approve the revised measure. Otherwise, all agencies covered by the package will shut down after midnight on Friday night.
That would affect the Departments of Defense, Labor, Health and Human Services, Education, Transportation, Housing and Urban Development, Treasury and Homeland Security. House leaders have not offered to recall members to vote.
Aside from their proposed policy changes, Senate Democrats are pushing to split the Homeland Security bill off from the other five measures — suggesting they would pass the other five spending bills and continue negotiating on DHS.
“There have to be changes, so split the five bills away from DHS and the Dems will provide the votes to get the five bills passed,” Sen. Tim Kaine, D-Va., said Tuesday. “But if the Republicans won’t do that, it’s because they want to shield DHS from accountability.”
Still, even a successful Senate vote on the five bills, without Homeland Security, would require another vote in the House to send the five-bill package to Trump’s desk. Otherwise, all the agencies under the six bills will face a shutdown on Saturday.
If those agencies do shutter, DHS ironically would be protected from many of the effects of the funding lapse. That’s because of a roughly $178 billion pot of money enacted in the GOP’s reconciliation bill last summer.
Those funds, which are separate from the normal, annual funding process, included $75 billion for ICE. The Defense Department also got a $156 billion stash of money in the tax-and-spending law that it could tap during a shutdown.
But other departments funded by the six-bill package would feel the full effect of a shutdown.
“It’d be a genuine shame for us to lose all of these positive steps we managed to get through a full appropriations process that rejects all the Republican poison pills and that projects a wide range of most pernicious budget cuts,” Sen. Chris Coons, D-Del., a senior appropriator, told MS NOW.
Thune has pointed to that dynamic, urging Democrats to separate the negotiations from funding bills — a set of negotiations that gives Democrats leverage but also risks a shutdown.
“Not only is it complicated, I think it could be risky,” Thune said of seeking changes to the House-passed funding package.
Democratic lawmakers have plenty of proposals for changes at ICE. But they haven’t formed them into a cohesive offer yet.
They want independent investigations of the recent shootings, Sen. Tammy Baldwin, D-Wis., told MS NOW. Sen. Richard Blumenthal, D-Conn., told MS NOW he wants “a ban on arrests in sensitive locations like churches and hospitals.” And Democrats don’t want federal immigration enforcement in cities and states that don’t consent to those actions, Kaine said.
Senators have also already discussed changes like barring immigration officers from wearing masks, requiring them to have warrants for arrests and sending Border Patrol agents back to the border.
Democrats have also discussed restrictions on the ability of officials to use the massive pot of money enacted last summer, separate from the current, annual funding talks, Kaine said.
The killing of 37-year-old intensive care nurse Alex Pretti — following the death of 37-year-old Renee Good — prompted criticism from some Republican lawmakers, who say they’re open to restrictions.
Sen. Thom Tillis, R-N.C., said he could agree to several ideas Democrats have floated, including requirements for agents to wear body cameras and have warrants, and for investigations after shootings.
“If they’re talking about reforms where if you have an officer-involved shooting that you have to have an indie review, count me in,” Tillis told reporters Tuesday.
Tillis also called for Trump to fire Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem, saying she’s squandered the public’s faith in the president’s immigration agenda. But he stopped short of calling for the changes to be written into the bill to fund DHS.
Tillis said lawmakers could try to pass a short-term stopgap funding measure for DHS and pass the other five bills, though he acknowledged there could be a short “technical shutdown” if the House doesn’t return in time to pass the altered package before Friday.
But Pretti’s death has also made it harder for Democrats to vote for a bill that includes funds for ICE, even if lawmakers agree to a compromise on policy changes.
For example, Murphy stopped short of saying he would support a Homeland Security funding bill if it includes a compromise set of policy changes.
“Let’s just see what the list is first,” Murphy said. “We’re still trying to run to ground the list of things that we want.”
Kevin Frey and Mychael Schnell contributed reporting.
Jack Fitzpatrick covers Congress for MS NOW. He previously reported for Bloomberg Government, Morning Consult and National Journal. He has bachelor’s and master’s degrees from Arizona State University.
Rep. Eric Swalwell dropped out of the Democratic primary for California governor on Sunday night after detailed accusations of sexual assault and misconduct doomed his once successful campaign — and led his closest allies and aides to demand he bow out.
“I am suspending my campaign for Governor,” Swalwell said in a statement posted on social media.“To my family, staff, friends, and supporters, I am deeply sorry for mistakes in judgment I’ve made in my past. I will fight the serious, false allegations that have been made — but that’s my fight, not a campaign’s.”
The damning allegations brought by a former aide against the congressman sparked a criminal investigation in New York City and threatened the one-time presidential candidate’s political future.
By Sunday, several Democratic lawmakers — including fellow members of the California congressional delegation — had called on Swalwell to not just end his campaign for governor, but resign from Congress.
There must be accountability with both House Ethics and law enforcement about the sexual assault, and Eric Swalwell should resign.”
Rep. Ro Khanna, D-Calif.
“There must be accountability with both House Ethics and law enforcement about the sexual assault, and Eric Swalwell should resign,” Rep. Ro Khanna, D-Calif., said Sunday.
Several Democrats suggested they would support an expulsion effort if Republicans would take down one of their own: Rep. Tony Gonzalez of Texas, who is under a House ethics investigation for alleged sexual misconduct with an aide who died by suicide.
Rep. Anna Paulina Luna, a Florida Republican, announced her effort to push an expulsion resolution against Swalwell, saying, “I am not going to serve with these sexual deviants, that is not what Congress is about.”
Swalwell vehemently denied the accusationsfirst reported by the San Francisco Chronicle Friday, and disregarded calls from prominent California Democrats, including his two campaign co-chairs, Reps. Jimmy Gomez and Adam Gray, to drop out of the race.
“These allegations of sexual assault are flat false. They are absolutely false. They did not happen. They have never happened,” Swalwell said in a video address posted to social media after the reports were made public. “And I will fight them with everything that I have.”
House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries and former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, whose district spans much of San Francisco, called for Swalwell to relinquish the race while key backers withdrew their endorsements and his campaign effectively suspended its operations.
It was unclear which of the candidates in the crowded Democratic primary to succeed California Gov. Gavin Newsom, a term-limited Democrat who is seen as a 2028 presidential contender, would gain the backing of the Democratic establishment.
MS NOW spoke with the woman at the center of the allegations, a former Swalwell staff member, who confirmed that she made the sexual assault allegations first reported by the Chronicle and later by CNN, which citedthree other women alleging various kinds of sexual misconduct by Swalwell.
The main accuser, who has not been publicly identified and worked for Swalwell for nearly two years, said she had sexual encounters while he was her boss. She said he sexually assaulted her on two occasions when she was too intoxicated to consent, the Chronicle reported. The former aide confirmed to MS NOW that she made the sexual assault allegations.
Her former colleagues supported her and condemned Swalwell.
“We stand with our former colleague, and the other women who have come forward. We believe you should stand with them, too,” the California lawmaker’s gubernatorial and congressional staff wrote in a joint letter issued over the weekend. “The behavior detailed in these reports is abhorrent, beneath the dignity of those serving in public office and betrays the trust of all Californians.”
Sydney Carruth is a breaking news reporter covering national politics and policy for MS NOW. You can send her tips from a non-work device on Signal at SydneyCarruth.46 or follow her work on X and Bluesky.
The Dictatorship
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán concedes defeat after ‘painful’ election result
BUDAPEST, Hungary (AP) — Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbánconceded defeat on Sunday after what he called a ″painful″ election resultending 16 years in power for a powerful figure in the far-right movement allied with U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Partial official results show opposition leader Peter Magyar’s party dominating the vote, in a bombshell election result with repercussions around Europe and beyond. ‘’Thank you, Hungary!” Magyar posted on X, as thousands of his supporters thronged the banks of the Danube in Budapest.
Across town, Orban told his followers that “I congratulated the victorious party.”
“We are going to serve the Hungarian nation and our homeland from opposition as well,” he said.
With 60% of the vote counted, Magyar’s Tisza party had more than 52% support to 38% for Orbán’s governing Fidesz party. That proportion will change as more votes are counted.
It’s a major blow for Orbán, the European Union’s longest-serving leader and one of its biggest antagonists, who has traveled a long road from his early days as a liberal, anti-Soviet firebrand to the Russia-friendly nationalist admired todayby the global far-right.
The parties of both Orbán and Magyar said they had received reports of electoral violations, suggesting some results could be disputed by both sides.
Voters showed up in droves
Turnout by 6:30 p.m. was over 77%, according to the National Election Office, a record number in any election in Hungary’s post-Communist history.
“I’m asking our supporters and all Hungarians: Let’s stay peaceful, cheerful, and if the results confirm our expectations, let’s throw a big, Hungarian carnival,” Magyar said.
Orbán’s chief of staff, Gergely Gulyás, said the record high turnout showed that “Hungarian democracy is extremely strong.”
‘Choice between East or West’
Orbán has repeatedly frustrated EU efforts to support Ukraine in its war against Russia’s full-scale invasion, while cultivating close ties to President Vladimir Putin and refusing to end Hungary’s dependence on Russian fossil fuel imports.
Recent revelations have shown a top member of his government frequently shared the contents of EU discussions with Moscow, raising accusations that Hungary was acting on Russia’s behalf within the bloc.
The election was closely watched in countries around Europeand beyond, which is a testament to the outsize role Orbán occupies in far-right populist politics worldwide.
Members of Trump’s “Make America Great Again” movement are among those who see Orbán’s government and his Fidesz political party as shining examplesof conservative, anti-globalist politics in action, while he is reviled by advocates of liberal democracyand the rule of law.
After casting his vote, Magyar told reporters that the election was “a choice between East or West, propaganda or honest public discourse, corruption or clean public life.”
Casting his ballot in Budapest, Marcell Mehringer, 21, said he was voting “primarily so that Hungary will finally be a so-called European country, and so that young people, and really everyone, will do their fundamental civic duty to unite this nation a bit and to break down these boundaries borne of hatred.”
Strained relationship with the EU
During his 16 years as prime minister, Orbán has launched harsh crackdowns on minority rightsand media freedomssubverted many of Hungary’s institutions and been accused of siphoning large sums of money into the coffers of his allied business elite, an allegation he denies.
He also has heavily strained Hungary’s relationship with the EU. Although Hungary is one of the smaller EU countries, with a population of 9.5 million, Orbán has repeatedly used his veto to block decisions that require unanimity.
Most recently, he blocked a 90-billion euro ($104 billion) EU loanto Ukraine, prompting his partners to accuse him of hijacking the critical aid.
Serious challenger on the rise
Magyar rapidly rose to become Orbán’s most serious challenger. The 45-year-old leader of the center-right Tisza party, which led in independent polls, campaigned on issues affecting ordinary voters including Hungary’s faltering public health care and transportation sectors and what he describes as rampant government corruption.
A former insider within Orbán’s Fidesz, Magyar broke with the party in 2024 and quickly formed Tisza. Since then, he has toured Hungary relentlessly, holding rallies in settlements big and smallin a campaign blitz that recently had him visiting up to six towns daily.
In an interview with The Associated Pressearlier this month, Magyar said the election will be a “referendum” on whether Hungary continues on its drift toward Russia under Orbán, or can retake its place among the democratic societies of Europe.
Tisza won 30% of the vote in European Parliament elections in 2024, and Magyar took a seat as an EU lawmaker. Tisza is a member of the European People’s Party, the mainstream, center-right political family with leaders governing 12 of the EU’s 27 nations.
Uphill election battle
Magyar and Tisza face a tough fight. Orbán’s control of Hungary’s public media, which he has transformed into a mouthpiece for his party, and vast swaths of the private media market give him an advantage in spreading his message.
The unilateral transformation of Hungary’s electoral system and gerrymandering of its 106 voting districts by Fidesz also will require Tisza to gain an estimated 5% more votes than Orbán’s party to achieve a simple majority.
Additionally, hundreds of thousands of ethnic Hungarians in neighboring countries had the right to vote in Hungarian elections and traditionally have voted overwhelmingly for Orbán’s party.
Fidesz and Tisza both have launched platforms for reporting irregularities, accusing their opponents of planning to commit election abuses.
Russian secret services have plotted to interfere and tip the election in Orbán’s favor, according to numerous media reports including by The Washington Post. The prime minister, however, has accused neighboring Ukraineas well as Hungary’s allies in the EU, of seeking to interfere in the vote to install a “pro-Ukraine” government.
Such accusations are part of why many in the EU see Orbán as a danger to the bloc’s future.
But across the Atlantic, Trump and his MAGA movement are all-in for another Orbán term. Trump has repeatedly endorsed the Hungarian leader and U.S. Vice President JD Vance made a two-day visit to Hungarylast week meant to help push Orbán over the finish line.
The walls are closing in around Rep. Eric Swalwell, D-Calif., who faces a criminal investigation into sexual assault allegations and mounting pressure — not just to abandon his campaign for California governor — but to resign from Congress.
Rep. Pramila Jayapal of Washington state, who has long advocated for survivors of Jeffrey Epstein, was one such Democrat on Sunday saying Swalwell should resign or be expelled.
When asked on NBC’s “Meet the Press” Sunday if she thinks Swalwell should abandon the race for governor, Jayapal said, “I absolutely do.”
She also said Swalwell should resign, along with Republican Rep. Tony Gonzalez of Texas, who is under a House ethics probe for a sexual relationship he admitted to having with an aide who later killed herself. “I do think that both of them need to step down from Congress,” Jayapal said.
“What we are seeing now is an emergence of women across the country who have been dismissed, told to shut up, told to move on —who have been abused by men in powerful positions. This is not a partisan issue,” Jayapal said.
Rep. Ro Khanna said Swalwell, a fellow California Democrat, should step down.
“There must be accountability with both House Ethics and law enforcement about the sexual assault, and Eric Swalwell should resign,” Khanna, a leader in Democratic efforts to investigate the Justice Department’s Epstein files, said in a statement on X Sunday after appearing on Fox News.
Rep. James Walkinshaw, D-Va., said he agreed. “His campaign for governor is over whether he realizes it or not,” he said during an appearance on MS NOW’s “Alex Witt Reports” Sunday.
Rep. Anna Paulina Luna, a Florida Republican, announced this weekend that she will push an expulsion resolution this week against Swalwell, saying, “I am not going to serve with these sexual deviants, that is not what Congress is about.”
Swalwell, who was the frontrunner in the California governor’s race to replace current term-limited Gov. Gavin Newsom, has vehemently denied any wrongdoing. Newsom, seen as a 2028 Democratic presidential contender, has not weighed in on whether Swalwell should resign or at least end his campaign for governor. His office did not immediately respond to MS NOW’s request for comment on Sunday.
But he said in a statement issued Friday, “These allegations from multiple sources are deeply troubling and must be taken seriously.”
Rep. Byron Donalds, a Republican from Florida, said he, too, would support expulsion resolutions for both Gonzalez and Swalwell. “If separate motions to expel the two congressmen come before the House, I will be voting yes on both measures,” Donalds said on “Meet the Press” Sunday.
The Manhattan District Attorney’s Office said on Saturday it launched an investigation into allegations of sexual assault against Swalwell, a one-time presidential candidate.
The main accuser, a former aide to Swalwell who spoke with MS NOW, first told the San Francisco Chronicle that the congressman sexually assaulted her on two separate occasions when she was too intoxicated to consent.
California House Democrats have turned on their colleague. Rep. Ted Lieu announced Friday he was withdrawing his endorsement of Swalwell for governor and Rep. Robert Garcia — another prominent advocate for Epstein survivors — called on Swalwell to quit the race.
Sen. Adam Schiff, D-Calif. withdrew his endorsement of Swalwell as campaign staffers abandoned him in droves. Rep. Jared Huffman, D-Ca., said Saturday that both Swalwell and Gonzalez should resign or face expulsion.
“Swalwell must halt his campaign, resign from office, and face the consequences of a full investigation,” California Rep. Sam Liccardo said Friday.
Senior staff working in Swalwell’s congressional office and on his gubernatorial campaign issued a joint letter over the weekend, saying they are “horrified” by the news reports detailing the sexual assault allegations against their boss and that any decision to remain on payroll “should not be viewed as support for Eric Swalwell.”
“We stand with our former colleague, and the other women who have come forward. We believe you should stand with them, too,” the letter said. “The behavior detailed in these reports is abhorrent, beneath the dignity of those serving in public office and betrays the trust of all Californians.”
Mychael Schnell and Jillian Frankel contributed to this report.
Erum Salam is a breaking news reporter for MS NOW, with a focus on how global events and foreign policy shape U.S. politics. She previously was a breaking news reporter for The Guardian.
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