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‘It was too close’: Tennessee’s tight special election brings midterm warning signs for Republicans

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Republicans won Tuesday’s special election in Tennessee. But instead of celebrating, many are dreading what it means about the midterms.

Republican Rep.-elect Matt Van Epps’ roughly nine point win marks a massive shift toward Democrats from 2024, when President Donald Trump carried the district by 22 points. That double digit swing — on the heels of crushing losses in off-year elections in November — could be a harbinger of what House Republicans will face in the midterms next year, members and strategists warned, as they seek to hold on to their narrow control of the chamber.

“Tonight is a sign that 2026 is going to be a bitch of an election cycle,” said one House Republican, granted anonymity to speak candidly. “Republicans can survive if we play team and the Trump administration officials play smart. Neither is certain.”

Democrat Aftyn Behn’s overperformance in the Tennessee special election — which attracted millions of dollars in spending and national attention in its final days — continues a trend of concerning electoral results for the GOP. Earlier this year, Democrats saw big overperformances in losses in other special elections in deep-red seats, and last month they swept a slate of critical off-year elections, including gubernatorial races in Virginia and New Jersey.

In the wake of those victories, some Republicans urged the White House to retool its political message to better engage moderate voters and independents who broke for Trump in the presidential election.

“I’m glad we won. But the GOP should not ignore the Virginia, New Jersey and Tennessee elections,” Rep. Don Bacon (R-Neb.), who is retiring from his swingy Omaha-based district, said. “We must reach swing voters. America wants some normalcy.”

House Republican leadership had been preparing for Tuesday night’s results. And while Speaker Mike Johnson leadership’s team was bracing for a tighter-than-comfortable race, the single-digit margin was still a hard pill to swallow after national Republicans pulled out all the stops — including a Trump tele-rally and Johnson visit to the district — to rescue Van Epps in the final days.

“It was too close,” said one House GOP leadership aide, who was also granted anonymity to candidly discuss the race.

Trump himself projected confidence after the win, celebrating Van Epps’ victory. “The Radical Left Democrats threw everything at him, including Millions of Dollars. Another great night for the Republican Party!!!,” he wrote on Truth Social.

But Matthew Bartlett, a GOP strategist and appointee in the first Trump administration, said the single-digit margin for Van Epps continues the momentum Democrats already feel after the New Jersey and Virginia races.

“None of it bodes well for the GOP in the midterms,” Bartlett said. “Being an ostrich with your head in the sand on the key issues that matter most to Americans is not a strategy, or certainty not a winning one.”

Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) directly tied Van Epps’ underperformance to Democratic voters motivated by their disapproval of Trump, and he pleaded with Republicans to “set out the alarm” with Republican voters about the consequences of losing control of the House and the Senate.

“It was dangerous. We could have lost this district because the people who showed up, many of them are the ones that are motivated by how much they dislike President Trump,” Cruz said in a Fox News interview Tuesday evening.

“In a year, it’s going to be a turnout election, and the left will show up,” he added. “Hate is a powerful motivator.”

Turnout was extraordinarily high for a special election, pacing the 2022 midterms. Van Epps got roughly 90 percent of the number of raw votes Republican Mark Green — whose retirement triggered the special election — got that year, while Behn got over 115 percent of the 2022 Democrat nominee’s total.

One GOP consultant, granted anonymity to speak candidly, worried the result in Tennessee signals that Republican voters won’t turn out in significant numbers for candidates other than Trump — a problem that has plagued Republicans in the past.

“The Trump coalition is captivated by the force of his personality and willingness to disrupt the established order. There’s not much interest in supporting other ‘politicians’ when Trump isn’t on the ballot,” the consultant said. “The winds are likely to blow against Republicans in federal races in 2026. People are rarely satisfied anymore and they’re looking for someone to punish.”

In a statement celebrating his victory on Tuesday, Van Epps acknowledged Trump’s importance in the race.

“Running from Trump is how you lose. Running with Trump is how you win,” he said.

Ahead of Tuesday’s election, National Republican Congressional Committee chair Rep. Richard Hudson sought to downplay the results of an election that was projected to be uncharacteristically competitive, telling House Republicans in a closed-door meeting that special elections are unique. And after Tuesday’s win, he celebrated Van Epps, saying in a statement “no one is better positioned to take up the mantle and deliver results” for Tennessee.

But coming out of that meeting, one House Republican said that a narrow result could send shockwaves among the House GOP conference.

“If our victory margin is single digits, the conference may come unhinged,” the House Republican said prior to polls closing on Tuesday.

Elena Schneider and Lisa Kashinsky contributed to this report.

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Republicans took shots at Hillary Clinton — and she came ready to fight back

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Republicans on the House Oversight committee, not getting the answers they sought about Jeffrey Epstein, focused elsewhere in the former secretary of State’s deposition…
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Republicans took shots at Hillary Clinton — and she came ready to fight back

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Republicans on the House Oversight committee, not getting the answers they sought about Jeffrey Epstein, focused elsewhere in the former secretary of State’s deposition…
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Ties to Israel plague Democrats in top primaries post-Gaza

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Israel, after a long, devastating war in Gaza, has become so unpopular among many voters in the Democratic base that major candidates in top primaries are using even small connections to the country’s political leaders to hit their opponents.

One Illinois Democratic operative involved in this year’s primaries has dredged up a 2019 trip that Illinois U.S. Senate candidate Juliana Stratton took to Israel to meet with the then-leader of the Israeli opposition Tzipi Livni. The operative, who was granted anonymity because they feared getting blacklisted from future political campaigns, went even further back citing a decade-old plus arrest warrant a British court issued related to a weeks-long conflict with Gaza that started in December 2008. And one of Stratton’s opponents has gone on the record criticizing the trip.

Livni, of course, is one of Netanyahu’s top critics and is solidly on the left in Israel. She is a vocal advocate of a Palestinian state aside a secure Israel despite support for a two-state solution in Israel falling precipitously in recent years. And she has met with numerous Democratic politicians over the years, including Joe Biden in 2010, Barack Obama in 2013 and a congressional delegation led by Nancy Pelosi in 2018.

Despite that record, Illinois Senate primary opponent Rep. Robin Kelly (D-Ill.) said that Stratton’s 2019 meeting with Livni raises questions about her leadership.

“Illinois voters believe that judgement matters,” she said in a statement to Blue Light News when asked about Stratton’s Livni meeting. “Juliana Stratton owes them an explanation.”

Kelly sees her stance on Livni as one of her progressive bona fides.

“When I first ran for office I made a promise that nothing would compromise my ability to look myself in the mirror each day, and I’ve spent my career standing up and speaking out against injustice,” she said. “I’m the only candidate to call what happened in Gaza a genocide, reject AIPAC money, and refuse ICE-contractor cash.”

Kelly’s views on Israel’s conduct in Gaza have also shifted since she entered the Senate race in May. Kelly and Stratton, who is backed by Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker, are facing Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi (D-Ill.), the frontrunner in the March 17 primary. Less than a year ago, Kelly even accepted donations from pro-Israel lobby AIPAC, and she’s been to Israel numerous times as part of congressional trips. In January, Kelly said she wouldn’t take AIPAC money again.

Even tangential ties to the longtime U.S. ally are likely to become campaign issues across the country as the conflict with Iran intensifies into a regional conflagration. All three candidates following the strikes on Iran were quick to condemn the joint U.S.-Israeli action, citing what they believed was Trump’s overreach and swift action without congressional approval. Other Democrats have voiced concern that Trump’s decision could plunge the U.S. into another protracted war in the Middle East.

A Gallup poll released Friday found that around two-thirds of Democrats sympathize more with the Palestinians with only around 20 percent saying they are aligned with Israelis, down from half of Democrats being pro-Israel in 2016. Nearly 50 percent of Democrats even had an unfavorable view of the Israeli people, while the same amount had a favorable view, according to a Pew poll taken in September.

Stratton is not the only Democratic candidate who has been criticized by rivals for ties to Israel. In the Michigan Senate race, Abdul El-Sayed has blasted rival Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Mich.) for being a vocal advocate of Israel and protesters have shown up to her office to denounce donations she’s received from AIPAC. Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-Texas), whose Senate primary is Tuesday, has also been forced to defend herself for voting to fund defensive weapons for Israel.

Stratton, the current lieutenant governor of Illinois, went to Israel as part of the “2019 Influential Women in Leadership Delegation” organized by the America-Israel Friendship League and the Israeli Ministry of Foreign Affairs. A video from the organization shows her meeting with Livni, the former vice prime minister and foreign affairs minister.

In 2009, a British court issued an arrest warrant for Livni over accusations of war crimes in Gaza for her role during Operation Cast Lead. She was a member of the Israeli war cabinet during the conflict, which Palestinian authorities and an Israeli human rights organization said killed hundreds of Palestinian civilians.

She was supposed to give a speech in London at the time but later cancelled her trip. The warrant was withdrawn after the court found out that she wasn’t in the U.K. and the British government formally apologized to her for the arrest warrant.

She also had told Palestinian counterparts in 2007 during negotiations that even though she was the justice minister, “I am against law – international law in particular” and that “Palestinians don’t really need international law.”

Livni’s office has said she was “proud of all her decisions regarding Operation Cast Lead” and that the conflict achieved its objectives to protect Israel and restore Israel’s deterrence from Hamas rocket attacks from Gaza.

The America-Israel Friendship League, the Israeli Foreign Affairs Ministry and Livni didn’t respond to requests for comment.

Although Israel has yet to become a leading issue in the campaign, at a recent debate Stratton said she wanted to “see the suffering end” in the region and said that Netanyahu should step down.

Asked about the trip, a Stratton campaign spokesperson said in an email that the Livni meeting was “a group meeting that took place on a delegation trip promoting women in leadership coordinated by a third party – Juliana did not arrange the meeting and was one of several participants.” The spokesperson reiterated that she supports a two-state solution and “wants to see lasting peace in the region.”

This reporting first appeared in Illinois Playbook. Sign up to receive it in your inbox every weekday.

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