Politics
How Virginia’s top court might decide Democrats’ gerrymandering fate
Virginia Democrats are moving forward with plans to gerrymander their way to four more congressional seats — but they need help from the state’s top court.
After a lower court blocked Democrats’ efforts to amend the state Constitution and redraw federal congressional lines ahead of this fall’s midterm elections, the Virginia Court of Appeals requested the Virginia Supreme Court weigh in.
That puts the fate of the map — and potentially congressional control after the 2026 midterms — in the hands of a group of justices that observers say can be hard to predict.
Political and legal experts in Virginia agree the state Supreme Court is not overtly ideological, with many describing it as “small-c conservative,” leaning heavily on tradition and precedent rather than handing down ideologically right-wing rulings. And many observers say the court is wary of wading too heavily into political fights. But this time, it’s unavoidable.
“It’s kind of a state Supreme Court tradition to stay away from political matters whenever they can. They like to leave the legislating to the legislature. So this is going to be a really interesting test of that tradition,” said Carolyn Fiddler of the Democratic Attorneys General Association, who attended William & Mary Law School in Virginia and worked in state politics.
Virginia is one of only two states where the legislature elects Supreme Court justices. Because the state has had divided control for much of the past quarter century, the balance of the court’s justices were appointed by bipartisan compromise. The court’s current seven members include one justice who was elected when Democrats had sole control of the General Assembly, three when Republicans controlled both chambers and three when control of the legislature was split.
“I voted for all these people – every one of them — and I don’t think any of them are overly political. And they shouldn’t be,” said Virginia House of Delegates Minority Leader Del. Terry Kilgore (R), who said he thinks the court will rule in his side’s favor. “They just should follow the law. If they do, we win.”
The question before the Virginia Supreme Court is not if, but when, new maps are allowed to go into effect — and whether they’ll be in place for this year’s midterms.
Gov. Abigail Spanberger (D) signed legislation scheduling a statewide referendum for April 21 last week, asking voters to grant state lawmakers the power to redraw federal Congressional lines immediately. It came a day after Democratic state lawmakers unveiled proposed maps that aim to tilt the congressional map 10-1, potentially handing Democrats four more House seats and leaving just one Republican in the federal delegation.
But a wrench was thrown in their plans when a circuit court judge in conservative Tazewell County ruled late last month that Virginia Democrats did not follow proper procedure when initiating the constitutional amendment.
To change the Virginia Constitution is a multi-step process, requiring approval by two separate sessions of the General Assembly with a statewide general election for the House of Delegates taking place in between those sessions.
Judge Jack Hurley ruled that because early voting was already underway when the General Assembly first passed the amendment last October, it should not count as the first step. If the Virginia Supreme Court agrees, the earliest the state could enact new maps is after the next legislative election in 2027 — a blow to Democrats’ hopes of winning back the House this fall.
It’s a question both sides hope the top court weighs in on – and quickly.
“If they answer the question that there was not an intervening election, which, that’s the big one … then the redistricting is dead,” said former Del. Tim Anderson (R), and who is a practicing attorney. “If they say that there was an intervening election, then the redistricting amendment will go forward.”
The next opening on the court’s docket for a new case is March 2, a tight timeline since that’s the same week early voting is scheduled to begin.
Jay O’Keeffe is a left-leaning appellate attorney based in Roanoke who has argued before the top court. He said it is not uncommon for the justices’ opinions to reference Sir William Blackstone’s “Commentaries on the Laws of England,” the 18th century treatise often cited by those who interpret the law through an originalist, conservative-leaning reading of the law.
“The justices I’ve dealt with don’t seem to see themselves as political actors,”O’Keeffe said. “But you could imagine a more progressive court … approaching the whole job of judging in a different way.”
The question both Democrats and Republicans hope the Virginia Supreme Court will answer is whether the April referendum vote can proceed.
“In matters like this, the Supreme Court is going to try to call it right down the middle, and not on a political basis,” said Steve Emmert, a retired appellate lawyer. “What the parties need now is certainty, and they need it soon.”
Politics
Republicans hold their breath and hope for a quick Trump endorsement in Texas
President Donald Trump is signaling he will soon endorse someone in the Texas primary. Key Republican players are scrambling to make the case for incumbent John Cornyn — and hoping Trump acts fast.
“I hope it’s going to be soon,” Senate Majority Leader John Thune told reporters Wednesday, just hours after making his latest plea on Cornyn’s behalf to the president.
At stake is $100 million or more in Republican donor money that many in D.C. party circles believe could be burned in the 12-week runoff showdown with Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, who finished closely behind Cornyn in Tuesday’s GOP primary.
Beyond the money that stands to be incinerated, party operatives fear the scorched-earth campaign will give a further leg up to Democratic candidate James Talarico, the state lawmaker who won his party’s primary outright Tuesday.
In a lengthy Truth Social post Wednesday, Trump spelled out that he was mindful of a costly internecine fight.
“I will be making my Endorsement soon,” he wrote, as he called on the candidate he doesn’t endorse to “DROP OUT OF THE RACE,” stressing that Republicans must “TOTALLY FOCUS” on beating the “Radical Left Opponent.”
Cornyn’s Senate colleagues delivered a succession of public and private entreaties to the president throughout the day Wednesday.
Sen. Katie Britt (R-Ala.) said in an exclusive interview for Blue Light News’s “The Conversation” that Cornyn was “without a doubt the candidate to win in November.” The episode is set for publication Friday.
“There’s nothing more powerful than President Trump’s endorsement,” Britt added, speaking before she traveled to the White House for a roundtable event with Trump.
Multiple Republicans delivered a similar message directly to Trump, according to three people granted anonymity to describe the private conversations — sharing their concerns that a Senate seat that has been in GOP hands since 1961 could be at risk of flipping in November if the scandal-dogged Paxton is the top of the ticket.
Senate Republicans were told during their closed-door lunch Wednesday that Trump will soon endorse in the race, two attendees said, but not whom the president will back.
But there was a palpable sense of hope among some of Cornyn’s allies Wednesday, who believe that things are aligning in the incumbent’s favor as he appears on track to win a plurality in Tuesday’s voting.
As of Wednesday evening Cornyn led Paxton by about 25,000 votes with more than 95 percent of ballots counted, according to the Associated Press. That represented an overperformance, some Cornyn allies argued, given that several pre-election polls had him soundly trailing Paxton.
A Cornyn campaign aide said there is “new momentum” and “new support coming” after Tuesday’s results.
“The case got stronger because of last night — that’s undeniable,” the aide said about Trump endorsing Cornyn. “There certainly are lots of conversations happening, lots of people who are seeing the bigger picture.”
Arriving in the Senate Wednesday evening, Cornyn declined to answer questions about the possibility of an endorsement — or anything else — as his colleagues warmly welcomed him back to Washington.
“Big John,” said No. 2 Senate GOP leader John Barrasso of Wyoming, greeting Cornyn as he rushed into the Capitol after a flight from Texas.
Several former Trump campaign aides are now associated with Cornyn’s campaign and are thought to be lobbying on his behalf. But Trump has long been personally fond of Paxton, a MAGA firebrand who eagerly joined his effort to overturn the 2020 presidential contest that elected Joe Biden.
A Republican close to the Paxton campaign, granted anonymity to speak candidly before Trump sent his Truth Social message, said Trump “knows that the base despises Cornyn” and would not risk alienating them by endorsing the sitting senator.
“He knows Cornyn is a squish and RINO,” he said. “But he’s got to make a pragmatic decision. It just kind of depends on what folks are telling him.”
Hopes for a quick endorsement for Cornyn could be on hold as the final votes are counted and his lead over Paxton is confirmed.
“Any president would prefer to be positioned with the winning campaign,” said one GOP donor, granted anonymity to speak candidly about the endorsement dynamics.
The White House did not respond to requests for comment on when the president will endorse and which candidate.
Talarico clinching the nomination while two well-financed Republicans beat each other up is exactly the scenario Washington Republicans were hoping to avoid ahead of Tuesday’s election. Internal polling released earlier this month by the Senate GOP’s campaign arm showed Paxton would lose the general election to Talarico by 3 points while Cornyn could beat him by 3 points.
The Republican close to the Paxton campaign said the attorney general is well positioned to win a runoff given that the primary electorate tends to be more conservative — and that Talarico is more beatable than Washington Republicans believe, given his past comments on transgender rights and his liberal view of the Bible. The person said Paxton’s data modeling showed a Cornyn plurality “was a possibility.”
“I guess it’s fair to say he was a little bit stronger than expected, but again it wasn’t too far up from our data,” the person said.
Still, the strong showing gave Cornyn’s colleagues a prime opportunity to argue that it was time to bring the rivalry to an end.
“John Cornyn is the best bet to win the November election,” said Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), a close Trump ally known to have the president’s ear.
Barrasso added that he, too, would encourage Trump to back his Texas colleague, adding that it’s “critically important for John Cornyn to be the nominee.”
“We need to hold that seat which means we need to nominate someone who is going to win in November,” Barrasso added. “The person that will win in November is John Cornyn.”
Dasha Burns and Adam Wren contributed to this report.
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