President Donald Trump is heading into Tuesday’s State of the Union facing a messy Capitol Hill backdrop: a Supreme Court smackdown of his global tariffs, fresh GOP anxiety over the political fallout and a DHS funding standoff that’s revealing chaos within his own administration.

Add in a snowstorm scrambling the House and Senate schedule — postponing House votes on aviation safety legislation and delaying a key farm bill markup — and lawmakers are facing a compressed, high-stakes week.

Here’s what we’re watching:

— Trump’s address: Attendance could be thin as lawmakers try to get back to Washington after a major snow storm on the East Coast. Many Democrats had already planned to boycott.

Several Republicans told Blue Light News they hope Trump will focus on affordability and economic issues and highlight the megabill tax cuts.

Trump critics on both sides of the aisle plan to make statements with their SOTU guests. Several Democrats are bringing individuals impacted by rising health care costs and the Trump administration’s immigration crackdown. Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.) is bringing his wife, Carolyn Moffa, who has been a target of attacks from Trump.

“Trump thought it was appropriate to include her in two of his broadsides,” Massie said. “So I thought it would be appropriate to invite her to his speech.”

— Tariff fallout: After the Supreme Court struck down Trump’s sweeping global tariffs on Friday — a move cheered by a number of GOP lawmakers — Hill Republicans are now in a tough position as Democrats hope to put them on the record voting for or against the new 15 percent global tariffs the president announced in response.

The new tariffs expire after 150 days and Congress will have to vote to extend them — something Republicans privately say they won’t have the support to do.

Among the Republicans who have tough decisions to make are farm state lawmakers who had been pressing the administration for carveouts in Trump’s tariffs but voted in support of his Canada tariffs. They got a taste of what could happen if they cross Trump, who over the weekend rescinded his endorsement of Rep. Jeff Hurd (R-Colo.) and endorsed his GOP challenger.

Rep. Don Bacon (R-Neb.), one of the six Republicans who voted to rebuke Trump’s Canada tariffs two weeks ago, said the levies are “terrible politics for Republicans” and that Trump’s latest move “will also fail in the courts.”

“President Trump is putting a ball and chain” on the GOP in the midterms, Bacon told Blue Light News. “I hate seeing it.”

— DHS stalemate: The DHS shutdown appeared to get real over the weekend when the department said it would suspend TSA PreCheck and other airport security services, but then quickly reversed course “based off of conversations the secretary had with the White House and TSA,” according to the Washington Post. Officials still plan to pause airport courtesy escorts for members of Congress as well as Global Entry.

The White House and Democrats are entering the week without substantial public evidence of progress on an agreement to fund DHS and establish immigration enforcement guardrails. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer said Sunday that the administration is “choosing to inflict pain on the public instead of adopting common sense ICE reforms.”

What else we’re watching:  

House Rules will take up two bills to roll back Biden-era efficiency standards at 4 p.m. 

Meredith Lee Hill contributed to this report.

Republican tariff skeptics on Capitol Hill celebrated Friday after the Supreme Court struck down the core authority behind President Donald Trump’s sweeping global tariffs — dealing a blow to a major plank of the president’s agenda but offering a welcome off-ramp to GOP lawmakers who viewed the levies as a political loser.

Retiring Rep. Don Bacon (R-Neb.) broke with Trump and GOP leaders a week ago to help overturn Trump’s Canada tariffs. On Friday, he hailed the “common sense ruling” by the high court that essentially invalidates those and many other tariffs.

“The checks and balances our Constitution puts in place works,” Bacon said in an interview Friday morning shortly after the decision, adding, “I feel vindicated.”

Another Republican who backed the effort to overturn the Canada tariffs, Rep. Thomas Massie of Kentucky, also praised the ruling.

“On its face, this case was obvious, because the Constitution vests the power to tax with the legislative branch, not the Executive branch,” Massie said in a text message. “No contrived emergency can undo that.”

Speaker Mike Johnson and other key GOP leaders did not immediately weigh in on the ruling Friday.

Trump himself appeared upset at the decision, cutting short remarks he was delivering to governors upon hearing the news at a White House breakfast Friday, according to two people in the room granted anonymity to describe the private event.

“He was not happy. He got the info in real time,” one of the people said.

Ahead of the Canada vote last week, Johnson said the congressional effort to overturn Trump’s tariffs was a “fruitless” exercise, given the Supreme Court could rule any day on the underlying emergency authorities Trump invoked to levy them. He urged his conference to hold off on breaking ranks until the decision, but Democrats successfully forced the vote in which all but six Republicans voted to back Trump.

The ruling comes just four days before Trump is set to deliver his State of the Union address to a joint session of Congress and an audience that will include the Supreme Court justices who rebuffed the cornerstone of his economic and foreign policy agendas.

A few GOP backers of the tariffs quickly spoke out, with Sen. Bernie Moreno of Ohio decrying the ruling as “outrageous” and saying it “handcuffs our fight against unfair trade that has devastated American workers for decades.”

“These tariffs protected jobs, revived manufacturing, and forced cheaters like China to pay up. Now globalists win,” Moreno added in a social media post Friday.

The ruling prompted tough questions for both parties about what comes next. Bacon indicated the decision could put an end to a flood of additional tariff disapproval votes headed to the House floor in the coming weeks.

“We’ll see if it’s necessary,” he said.

But House Democrats want to keep hammering Republicans on the topic in the weeks ahead.

And, Senate Democrats, according to a person granted anonymity to discuss private strategy, are waiting to see how Trump responds to the decision before determining whether to force more votes disapproving of individual emergency declarations.

Democrats in the Senate had hoped to put up the House-passed Canada resolution for a vote in the coming weeks, but there are ongoing internal conversations over whether it qualifies for special fast-track procedures allowing for a quick simple-majority vote, according to a second person granted anonymity to describe the matter.

Other Democrats said further action was needed to forestall the Trump administration from sidestepping the ruling, possibly by invoking separate national security powers. Rep. Suzan DelBene of Washington, who chairs the House Democratic campaign arm and sits on the chamber’s main trade panel, noted that the White House “has promised to use other avenues to maintain these illegal tariffs.”

“Congress must step up to put an end to this chaos and protect our economy,” she added.

Asked about the prospect of Trump trying to implement his tariffs through other avenues, Bacon said, “I think they’ll try, but it would not be advisable.” Friday’s ruling authored by Chief Justice John Roberts broadly defended Congress’s sole power under the Constitution to levy taxes.

Congress might also end up having to wrangle with the question of whether refunds are due to businesses or consumers who paid levies now found to be illegal.

“The Court has struck down these destructive tariffs, but there is no legal mechanism for consumers and many small businesses to recoup the money they have already paid,” Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) noted in a statement. “Instead, giant corporations with their armies of lawyers and lobbyists can sue for tariff refunds, then just pocket the money for themselves.”

Some Republicans are also urging congressional action in response to the ruling, with Rep. John Moolenaar of Michigan, who chairs the Select Committee on China, pressing for a revocation of Beijing’s permanent normal trade relations status.

Jordain Carney and Daniel Desrochers contributed to this report.

President Donald Trump sent a clear message to congressional Republicans this month that there’s no need to pass another party-line megabill this year. Many, however, aren’t ready to give up yet.

Trump’s comments in a Fox Business Network interview earlier this month appeared to finally settle a long-running GOP debate over whether to pursue a follow-up to the “big, beautiful bill” enacted in July, saying “we’ve gotten everything passed that we need.”

But some lawmakers are insisting that the filibuster-skirting budget reconciliation process offers an unmissable opportunity for Republicans to enact major conservative policy changes ahead of the midterm elections — and that there is still a window to get it done.

Those Republicans are largely brushing off Trump’s comments, refusing to take them as a death knell for their efforts.

“One day he’s okay with it, and the next day he’s not,” said Sen. John Kennedy (R-La.), who is one of the loudest evangelists for passing another party-line bill before the midterms, arguing Republicans “haven’t done a damn thing” since last year’s effort.

Those attitudes threaten to extend the will-they-or-won’t-they discussion for potentially several more months as some factions keep pressure on GOP leaders to keep hope alive.

The influential Republican Study Committee, which includes scores of House conservatives, has been holding listening sessions since last August for what could go into “Reconciliation 2.0.” It put out a framework in January outlining how such a bill could fulfill an ambitious housing, health care and energy agenda. The group is not yet abandoning the effort.

“There’s always a chance until there’s not,” said Rep. Kevin Hern (R-Okla.), a former RSC chair and member of House GOP leadership.

Rep. August Pfluger (R-Texas), the RSC’s current chair, said in a statement that a second reconciliation bill would be “the perfect vehicle” to unite Republicans behind “Trump’s America First agenda in 2026.”

“This is our moment, and we intend to make the most of it,” he said.

But to many senior Republicans that amounts to false hope — and a distraction from other matters on the congressional agenda in the coming months. Hopes abound for progress on bipartisan housing, permitting and transportation bills.

It was a particularly grueling process to get the first megabill through both chambers last year — and leaders had $5 trillion worth of tax cuts to dangle in front of recalcitrant members to help push it along.

House Republicans barely passed the bill on party lines in July, and their margin has only decreased since: They can currently afford no more than one defection.

“I would love a second reconciliation bill, but I can count votes,” Ways and Means Chair Jason Smith (R-Mo.) said in an interview. “And we do not have the votes for a second reconciliation.”

Speaker Mike Johnson and other House GOP leaders insist they haven’t ruled out doing a second reconciliation bill and say it’s still an active discussion, even as some senior House Republicans and GOP leadership aides privately doubt they will ever have the votes to move forward.

Senate Majority Leader John Thune also hasn’t dismissed another bill — but privately there’s a hefty dose of skepticism among senators and aides that there’s much of an appetite for another big party-line heave.

Asked about Trump’s latest comments, Thune acknowledged in an interview that there’s interest among some members. But he added that Republicans have to be “realistic” about the prospects of assembling a proposal that can garner 51 GOP votes and withstand a free-for-all of politically tricky changes from Democrats.

“We have to have a reason to do it,” Thune added.

To get another bill across the finish line during a midterm year, Republicans would likely need Trump to articulate what precisely he wants in a bill and then for the president to spend weeks, and potentially months, trying to help round up the votes.

But Trump has expressed skepticism about reconciliation, further raising the likelihood that the prospects of another bill are DOA. In addition to his recent comments, he kvetched about how little can actually get done in a reconciliation bill during a meeting with Senate Republicans last fall, instead urging Republicans to break the filibuster — a nonstarter for a significant swath of the conference.

Trump rekindled that push Thursday, telling senators in a Truth Social post to pass a GOP elections bill by insisting on a “talking filibuster” that would theoretically force Democrats to hold the floor indefinitely. The Senate is expected to vote on the bill, but many Republicans aren’t interested in skirting the chamber’s 60-vote supermajority requirement for most legislation.

The intraparty division is expected to come to a head next month at the House Republican retreat in south Florida, where a second reconciliation bill will be a topic of conversation. A previous closed-door meeting of GOP lawmakers in December grew heated, with vulnerable Rep. Mike Lawler (R-N.Y.) saying it would “never” happen.

Reconciliation got a brief mention during a Senate GOP retreat earlier this month, but most of the focus was on a slate of bipartisan bills that could come up this year, as well as the need to promote last year’s megabill, according to attendees who were granted anonymity to describe the closed-door event.

But some Republicans on the Senate Budget Committee — including Chair Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) — are pushing for more. Graham has told his members that he plans to move forward with a budget resolution that would tee up a second reconciliation bill aimed at beefing up military and border spending, addressing health care costs and targeting fraud in social services.

But according to his committee members, Graham hasn’t given a strict timeline for when he’ll start moving, and there’s skepticism that it will amount to much without GOP leaders’ involvement.

“I don’t know how you move forward without the majority leader’s okay,” Kennedy said in an interview. “Senator Thune wants us to only work on bipartisan bills. I love Senator Thune like a taco, but he needs to back off the crank if he believes that. There aren’t going to be any bipartisan bills — we’re right in the middle of the midterm election. Our one shot to get something is reconciliation.”

One of the other challenges is litigating what exactly would go into a second reconciliation bill.

Senate conservatives have floated taking another crack at healthcare, but that would risk exposing deep GOP divisions just months before the midterms. Many of the party’s most unifying health care proposals were omitted from last year’s megabill because of the Senate’s strict rules governing reconciliation.

Some senior House Republicans have discussed attempting to codify Trump’s tariffs in another party-line bill. But that long-shot effort is now effectively dead after six Republicans voted this month to reject Trump’s levies on Canadian imports — with more such tariff votes to come.

Asked about the possibility of codifying tariffs in a party-line package, Smith reiterated in an interview, “There’s not going to be a second reconciliation bill.”

Meredith Lee Hill contributed to this report.