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Government shutdown could lead to $14B in lost GDP, CBO reports

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The ongoing federal shutdown could cost the U.S. economy between $7 billion and $14 billion, according to a new report from the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office.

The report, prepared in response to a request from House Budget Chair Jodey Arrington (R-Texas), estimated the economic impact of the shutdown if it lasts four weeks — a mark hit Wednesday — six weeks, or two months.

Under all three scenarios, the CBO expects economic growth to be back on track after 2026, but some of the real gross domestic product loss resulting from furloughs of federal workers will not be recovered. That permanent loss could be anywhere from $7 billion, if the shutdown were to end now, and $14 billion, if it were to drag on for an additional month.

The Trump administration has placed about 750,000 federal workers on furlough, and many more are currently working without pay, although their ability to claim back pay after the government reopens — a standard precedent under previous government shutdowns — appears uncertain.

The CBO also anticipates that real GDP will be anywhere from 1 to 2 percentage points lower in the fourth quarter of 2025 than it would have been if the government remained open.

“The effects of the shutdown on the economy are uncertain. Those effects depend on decisions made by the Administration throughout the shutdown,” CBO Director Phillip Swagel wrote in the report.

The economic impacts of the shutdown will also be exacerbated when the federal government ceases disbursements of Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program benefits beginning Nov. 1, per the CBO.

The Department of Agriculture, which administers the program in partnership with states, has decided not to tap emergency funds to keep food aid flowing amid the shutdown — a move being challenged by Democratic leaders of more than two dozen states.

While a resolution to reopen the government remains elusive, Senate Majority Leader John Thune told POLITICO on Wednesday that talks to end the shutdown have “picked up.”

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Congress

GOP senators see path to ending DHS shutdown after Trump meeting

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A group of Senate Republicans believe they’ve found a path to ending the five-week Department of Homeland Security shutdown after meeting Monday with President Donald Trump.

Asked after the White House meeting if they had a solution after meeting with Trump, Sen. Katie Britt of Alabama told reporters, “We do.”

Britt and Sens. Bernie Moreno of Ohio, Lindsey Graham of South Carolina and Steve Daines of Montana met with Trump to try to pitch to accept an agreement that would fund most of DHS.

Their pitch, according to two people with knowledge of it, was to pass a funding bill that would fund all of DHS except specific parts of Immigration and Customs Enforcement, which is already funded under last year’s GOP megabill.

Graham told colleagues on the Senate floor after the meeting that the president is now open to a new party-line reconciliation bill after rejecting the idea over the weekend, Sen. John Kennedy (R-La.) said. That could give Republicans a path to pass more ICE funding — if they can muster the votes.

The White House did not immediately respond to a request for comment. And Republicans cautioned that nothing is official until Trump backs it publicly.

Senate Majority Leader John Thune said “hope so” when asked Monday night whether a deal was in hand.

Proceeding with the arrangement with Trump’s support would represent a U-turn from just 24 hours ago for the president, who insisted Sunday that DHS could be only funded if Democrats agreed to pass a partisan GOP elections bill, the SAVE America Act, alongside it.

Democrats in both chambers have pressed Republicans multiple times to take up their bills that would fund all of DHS except ICE, Customs and Border Protection and the secretary’s office. Republicans have rejected the efforts each time.

Sen. John Hoeven (R-N.D.), a senior appropriator, said there are “various options” for funding the department but is “hopeful” a solution was within grasp.

“Republicans have put a lot on the table, and hopefully the Democrats will agree,” he said.

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GOP senators meet with Trump on DHS

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Four Senate Republicans are meeting with President Donald Trump at the White House to discuss funding the Department of Homeland Security, which has been shuttered for more than a month amid a standoff with Democrats over the administration’s immigration enforcement agenda.

GOP lawmakers attending the Monday night meeting, according to a person granted anonymity to share details of a private confab, are Sens. Katie Britt of Alabama, Lindsey Graham of South Carolina, Bernie Moreno of Ohio and Steve Daines of Montana.

Britt is the chair of the appropriations subcommittee with oversight over DHS and has been helping lead negotiations to reopen the agency — though Trump warned Sunday night a deal should not be brokered until Democrats agree to help Republicans pass a partisan elections bill known as the SAVE America Act.

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No DHS talks expected until Mullin is confirmed, White House official says

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The White House is holding off on further DHS funding negotiations until the Senate confirms Oklahoma Sen. Markwayne Mullin to lead the agency, according to a White House official, granted anonymity to share internal thinking.

Democrats have previously canceled meetings, and given Mullin is close to confirmation, the official said, aides to President Donald Trump believe it’s better to wait so he can be a “full and active” participant in funding talks from the DHS side.

The White House earlier in the day rejected a Monday morning meetingwith a bipartisan group of senators who have been negotiating to end the DHS shutdown. Democrats had previously canceled a Saturday meeting.

The Senate is scheduled to vote on Mullin’s confirmation shortly before 8 p.m. Monday.

Some Senate Republicans are aiming to meet with Trump on Monday night to discuss the DHS funding situation, although no meeting has been officially scheduled.

The meeting, according to two people with knowledge of the matter, would be to try to pitch Trump on a plan to fund all of DHS except specific pieces of ICE, which have already been funded through last year’s megabill.

Trump was in Memphis, Tenn., earlier in the day, attending an anti-crime event and paying a visit to Graceland, Elvis Presley’s former home.

Senate Majority Leader John Thune said he expected additional meetings Monday but declined to say who was involved: “Conversations continue,” he said.

Meredith Lee Hill contributed to this report.

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