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Capitol agenda: The GOP’s 3 big tests in April

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Republicans are facing a trifecta of major challenges this week on President Donald Trump’s legislative agenda, his trade war escalation and the biggest test of the party’s political staying power since November. Here’s a rundown of what’s coming.

News on Trump’s legislative wish list: Senate Republicans will move as soon as Wednesday to start advancing the budget plan Congress has to approve to enact Trump’s tax cuts, border agenda and energy policies.

Senate Republicans are aiming to adopt a budget resolution before leaving for the weekend. A vote-a-rama could start as early as Thursday.

Before they get there, senators expect to receive a decision from the Senate parliamentarian as soon as Tuesday or Wednesday on whether they can use an accounting maneuver known as current policy baseline, which would allow them to treat an extension of Trump’s 2017 tax cuts as not costing anything. The Senate GOP needs the parliamentarian to make that call before moving ahead.

On the sidelines, the “Big Six” tax negotiators — Speaker Mike Johnson, Senate Majority Leader John Thune, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett, Senate Finance Chair Mike Crapo and Ways and Means Chair Jason Smith — are set to meet Tuesday. Senate Finance Republicans will meet ahead of time on Monday night. House Ways and Means Republicans will gather Thursday for an all-day session to continue hashing out the tax bill.

Even if Republicans succeed in nailing down a budget blueprint before Easter, they’re still punting key fights over how to pay for Trump’s plans. Trump’s push for action now and unity later has the House and Senate GOP moving ahead with budget numbers that don’t match up — meaning the chambers’ committees aren’t aligned on deficit reduction targets. House committees will be asked to cut at least $2 trillion, while Senate committees might be directed to find a minimum of a few billion dollars.

Tariff tensions: Trump is threatening to ratchet up tariffs Wednesday — what he’s calling “Liberation Day” — and Hill Republicans are scrambling to shield their states from the impacts. GOP lawmakers are coordinating with industry groups to push for exemptions.

What makes it harder for Republicans is that no one but Trump is fully certain what these tariffs will look like. That’s causing unease among White House officials and Trump’s allies. Senate Democrats are hoping to capitalize on Republican discomfort around the issue by forcing a vote aimed at blocking Trump’s Canada tariffs as soon as Tuesday.

One of the reasons Trump has been pushing to increase the scope of the tariffs is to be able to claim hundreds of billions of dollars in more revenue that he believes will pay for a large chunk of his massive domestic policy bill, said three people with direct knowledge. Some Republicans are anxious about this move, arguing it’s a clear-cut budget gimmick and that tariffs likely won’t drive that much revenue.

Trump’s political test: Two special elections are on tap Tuesday in Florida to replace former Reps. Matt Gaetz and Mike Waltz. Republican Randy Fine’s bid to succeed Waltz in the state’s deep-red 6th District has been a huge headache for the GOP, with the party fearing the race will be closer than expected. As BLN reported last week, NRCC chief Rep. Richard Hudson and Majority Whip Tom Emmer warned Fine to “get his shit together.”

Meredith Lee Hill, Jordain Carney, Jennifer Scholtes and Benjamin Guggenheim contributed reporting.

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SAVE America Act is ‘No. 1 priority,’ Trump tells Republicans

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DORAL, Florida — President Donald Trump told House Republicans Monday to pass a major partisan elections bill a third time with new provisions, saying it should be the GOP’s “No. 1 priority” ahead of the midterm elections.

“It will guarantee the midterms,” Trump told lawmakers gathered at his golf resort. “If you don’t get it, big trouble, my opinion.”

The president spent 13 minutes at the close of a nearly hourlong address making crystal-clear he expects Speaker Mike Johnson and other top leaders to meet his demands. The House has already two passed versions of what is now called the “SAVE America Act” that would institute tough new citizenship and photo ID requirements for voting.

But Trump asked the gathered lawmakers to add in provisions curbing mail voting and targeting transgender rights — even it means abandoning the remainder of their legislative agenda before the November elections.

“Let’s go for the gold,” he said. “It’s actually a matter in a serious way of national survival. We can’t have these elections going on like this anymore.”

The already passed version of the SAVE America Act is awaiting a Senate vote. Majority Leader John Thune has committed to calling it up, but it is certain to be blocked by Democrats under the chamber’s 60-vote filibuster threshold.

Some conservatives, with Trump’s backing are looking to sidestep that obstacle with a “talking filibuster” that would force Democrats to hold the floor. Thune and other Senate Republicans are skeptical it would work without a rules change, but Trump said Monday failure was not an option.

“They have to get it done,” he said of the Senate. “If it takes you six months — I’m for not approving anything. … I don’t think we should approve anything until this is approved.”

Trump also endorsed a push by some House Republican hard-liners to attach a must-pass spy powers extension to the SAVE America legislation in a bid to pass both together — creating a nightmare for House GOP leaders who already face obstacles passing either bill.

He cast the voting and transgender provisions as proven political winners that Democrats would be hard-pressed to oppose, even though they have so far stayed almost entirely united against the legislation.

“That should be the easiest thing to get passed that you’ve ever had,” Trump said. “Those are best of Trump. This is the No. 1 priority, it should be, for the House.”

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Rising energy prices threaten cornerstone of GOP midterm pitch

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DORAL, Florida — The economic fallout from President Donald Trump’s decision to go to war with Iran is imperiling the GOP’s legislative sales pitch ahead of the midterms, with energy price spikes threatening at least some of the pocketbook gains Americans are seeing from the sweeping tax cuts Republicans enacted last year.

Analysts with the Wall Street advisory and investment firm Evercore ISI estimated Monday that the impact on household costs attributable to the current crisis could erase the tax benefits from the “big, beautiful bill” for at least the bottom 30 percent of Americans — even if oil prices come off their $100-plus-per-barrel highs.

Some top Republicans acknowledged rising energy prices are cause for political concern.

“The price of gas is always kind of a benchmark,” Senate Majority Leader John Thune told reporters on Capitol Hill Monday. “I do think the fact that we’ve increased our supply here domestically will help ease it, but it’s something obviously we’ve got to pay attention to. And hopefully the operations in Iran … won’t be an extended situation.”

The impact of higher gas prices is hitting just as House Republicans gather for their annual policy retreat at Trump’s resort in Doral, Florida. The evidence could be seen just outside the gates, where regular gas was retailing at multiple stations for $3.59 per gallon — up about 70 cents from the Miami-area average on Jan. 1, according to GasBuddy.com.

The hope among Republicans gathered at the resort is that the crisis is short-lived, with several saying they believed Trump’s assurances that the supply bottlenecks caused by Iran’s effective blockade of the Persian Gulf would soon ease.

“I believe there’s a lot of emotion built into energy prices,” Rep. Chuck Edwards (R-N.C.) said in an interview. “I would look for things to settle down very soon.”

But other Republicans granted anonymity to speak candidly expressed real alarm as crude oil prices surged to nearly $120 a barrel overnight before settling later in the day below $90 — still about 30 percent above recent lows.

“If you are a Republican and not concerned right now, you are stupid,” one House Republican said, adding, “Hopefully, we will square this away sooner than later.”

Another House Republican, asked if the wartime crisis threatened to overshadow the benefits of the GOP megabill, replied, “Hell yes.”

“The most sensitive thing amongst most driving Americans is the price of gasoline,” the person added, saying it threatens to send Americans “right up the wall.”

Trump is scheduled to address lawmakers in Doral shortly after markets close Monday, and they will be listening closely to his message on the hostilities in the Middle East and his plans to address high energy prices. He has announced plans to get oil shipments moving through the Gulf again, including by providing naval escorts for tankers and backstopping insurance for vessels.

White House spokesperson Taylor Rogers said in a statement that oil prices will “drop dramatically once the objectives of Operation Epic Fury are achieved.”

“President Trump and his entire energy team have had a strong game plan to keep the energy markets stable well before Operation Epic Fury began, and they will continue to review all credible options,” she said.

But the president so far has shown little interest in pushing his party to foremost focus on legislation tackling affordability, as some of his political aides have advised. Instead, Trump is pressing Senate Republicans to pass a sweeping GOP elections overhaul bill — adding on demands for a near-complete ban on mail voting and unrelated policy provisions like banning transgender surgeries for minors.

Hours before taking the stage in front of House Republicans at his Florida resort, he reiterated his request.

Even before the oil price shock, Trump’s agenda had come with a hefty price tag for consumers. Analysts at the Tax Foundation have already determined that the president’s trade policies cost Americans $1,000 on average last year, matching the average size of refund checks that Trump officials say will ease cost-of-living concerns.

The Supreme Court struck down many of Trump’s tariffs, but those that remain are projected to cost households $600 on average this year, according to the nonpartisan think tank.

House Republican leaders are hoping to keep the annual policy retreat focused on their legislative priorities ahead of the midterms. Rep. Lisa McClain of Michigan, the GOP Conference chair, said ahead of the retreat she hoped to firm up the party’s messaging around last year’s megabill.

But going into the Doral resort Monday, members were trained on all the reasons they hoped the politically perilous price spike would be short-lived.

House Natural Resources Chair Bruce Westerman (R-Ark.) said in an interview that reopening the Iranian-controlled Strait of Hormuz “would be even better for energy prices, although we’re seeing obviously a peak right now with the war going on.”

Rep. Riley Moore (R-W.Va.) said the supply crunch was “not an existential threat to us because of all the things we’ve done to make ourselves self reliant in terms of energy resources,” while acknowledging the “fungible” nature of the global oil market. He was hopeful about more ships navigating the Strait of Hormuz.

Rep. Carlos Gimenez (R-Fla.) said in an interview a “short-term gas price hike is … not what’s important.”

“What’s important is the long term benefits of having a peaceful Iran that means that gas prices will drop dramatically for the long term,” he said. “I’m not that concerned about it.”

Sam Sutton contributed to this report.

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Thune: Talking filibuster ‘more complicated and risky’ than people realize

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Senate Majority Leader John Thune sent a warning shot Monday over the talking filibuster, saying the procedural playcall is “way more complicated” than many supporters realize.

“This particular approach in terms of the process is much more complicated and risky than people are assuming at the moment,” Thune told reporters, cautioning that a talking filibuster without forcing through a formal rules change — for which there isn’t the votes — could take up months of Senate floor time.

Thune’s comments came after President Donald Trump urged the Senate to quickly take up and pass GOP-led voting legislation, known as the SAVE America Act — even if it means invoking a talking filibuster, which would force Democrats to physically hold the floor in order to block consideration of the bill.

Trump also pitched expanding the bill’s scope beyond voting to include red meat issues like banning men from participating in women’s sports and prohibiting gender affirming surgery for children. Thune said Monday it would “make sense” for the House to send an updated bill to reflect Trump’s latest priorities.

Thune is the target of a fierce online pressure campaign to skirt the Senate’s 60-vote legislative filibuster — coming both from House Republicans and what the majority leader characterized Monday as a “paid influencer ecosystem.”

Part of the pitch from Sen. Mike Lee (R-Utah) and his allies has been that Republicans could force Democrats into a talking filibuster without having to officially change the Senate rules or precedents. Thune reiterated Monday that formally nuking the legislative filibuster is “not going to happen.”

“The one thing I’ve said all along and I’ve told him and others — that I can’t guarantee an outcome,” Thune said, referring to Trump. “I can’t guarantee a result if the result is only achieved by nuking the legislative filibuster. We don’t have the votes to do that, and so that’s just not a realistic option and I’ve made that clear to anybody who’s asked.”

But a significant number of GOP senators are also skeptical of a talking filibuster even without changing the Senate’s rules. Some believe the gambit would permanently weaken the 60-vote legislative filibuster. Others think the procedural option being floated by Lee and others is unworkable because it would let Democrats bog down the floor and potentially hijack the bill for any proposal for which they could get at least 50 votes.

“The process and how you ultimately try and get a result is still unclear to me based on all the research we’ve done,” Thune said Monday about invoking a talking filibuster, adding that conversations are still ongoing within the conference about the process.

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