Congress
Capitol agenda: Decision day for Senate Dems
Get ready for a do-or-die Senate weekend.
Senate GOP Leader John Thune will try to break the shutdown impasse Friday. Democrats we’ve spoken to say he won’t succeed, as they dig in to force more GOP concessions in the coming days.
Thune will tee up another vote on the House-passed CR Friday as part of a plan that could pave the way for ending the shutdown. The majority of Democrats said Thursday night they’d block the effort — even as party moderates are talking with Republicans about an offer that would advance a minibus appropriations package and revised stopgap into at least December, with a promise of a future vote on extending Affordable Care Act subsidies.
Some Republicans and Democrats are also discussing whether the revised stopgap funding deal could include language to reverse President Donald Trump’s RIFs and add stronger provisions to guarantee back pay for federal workers, although key details still need to be hammered out.
Both parties had seemed optimistic heading into this week. But the mood has turned gloomier, and those involved in bipartisan talks were skeptical there would be a breakthrough Friday. GOP leaders were noncommittal Thursday on whether the Senate would stay in Washington through the weekend.
“Unfortunately, it’s folks trying to figure out a path forward. But there is no organized effort at this point that is bearing fruit,” Sen. Mike Rounds (R-S.D.) told reporters Thursday. “There are attempts to find a way to bring people forward, but I’m discouraged. I’m hoping that overnight, things might change a little bit, but I’m not optimistic.”
Voters are about to feel the pinch, with the Trump administration slashing flights and airlines pleading for Congress to end the shutdown. Behind the scenes, some Senate Democrats are trying to come up with options to address the expiring Affordable Care Act subsidies that could realistically pass the House. Reaching a bipartisan agreement on the subsidies has become a difficult and politically challenging issue for Democrats, with many highly skeptical their GOP counterparts will ever follow through on the issue once the shutdown ends, Benjamin Guggenheim reports this morning.
Some freshman Democratic senators are trying to make progress: Sens. Andy Kim and Lisa Blunt Rochester plan to meet with GOP Reps. Brian Fitzpatrick (Penn.) and Jeff Van Drew (N.J.) Friday to talk about a possible bipartisan plan. One Democratic aide involved in bipartisan talks said “we are not going to get a better offer.”
“The hardliners have yet to articulate any sense whatsoever of how they think this ends or any proposal to get Republicans to the table other than waiting longer and longer,” another Democratic aide said. “And in the meantime it’s the families who can afford it the least that are increasingly getting walloped by the shutdown.”
What else we’re watching:
— Crypto bill in progress: Senate Agriculture Chair John Boozman said he came away from a Wednesday call with White House crypto and AI czar David Sacks feeling “95 percent” aligned on a major crypto market structure bill
The Agriculture Committee is nearing a draft deal on its portion of the crypto bill that would outline oversight of the industry by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. The House passed its version of the overhaul of crypto regulations in March, and the crypto industry has been pushing for the Senate to pass its own version swiftly.
— GOP fears LIHEAP funding cliff: Many Republicans are fretting that constituents who rely on federal subsidies to help them pay their heating bills won’t get support as the shutdown continues into the colder months. The Trump administration has proposed zeroing out the Low-Income Home Energy Assistance Program’s entire budget making it unlikely to disburse additional funds without being compelled by Congress to do so through a government funding bill.
Jordain Carney, Calen Razor, Andres Picon and Meredith Lee Hill contributed to this report.
Congress
SAVE America Act is ‘No. 1 priority,’ Trump tells Republicans
DORAL, Florida — President Donald Trump told House Republicans Monday to pass a major partisan elections bill a third time with new provisions, saying it should be the GOP’s “No. 1 priority” ahead of the midterm elections.
“It will guarantee the midterms,” Trump told lawmakers gathered at his golf resort. “If you don’t get it, big trouble, my opinion.”
The president spent 13 minutes at the close of a nearly hourlong address making crystal-clear he expects Speaker Mike Johnson and other top leaders to meet his demands. The House has already two passed versions of what is now called the “SAVE America Act” that would institute tough new citizenship and photo ID requirements for voting.
But Trump asked the gathered lawmakers to add in provisions curbing mail voting and targeting transgender rights — even it means abandoning the remainder of their legislative agenda before the November elections.
“Let’s go for the gold,” he said. “It’s actually a matter in a serious way of national survival. We can’t have these elections going on like this anymore.”
The already passed version of the SAVE America Act is awaiting a Senate vote. Majority Leader John Thune has committed to calling it up, but it is certain to be blocked by Democrats under the chamber’s 60-vote filibuster threshold.
Some conservatives, with Trump’s backing are looking to sidestep that obstacle with a “talking filibuster” that would force Democrats to hold the floor. Thune and other Senate Republicans are skeptical it would work without a rules change, but Trump said Monday failure was not an option.
“They have to get it done,” he said of the Senate. “If it takes you six months — I’m for not approving anything. … I don’t think we should approve anything until this is approved.”
Trump also endorsed a push by some House Republican hard-liners to attach a must-pass spy powers extension to the SAVE America legislation in a bid to pass both together — creating a nightmare for House GOP leaders who already face obstacles passing either bill.
He cast the voting and transgender provisions as proven political winners that Democrats would be hard-pressed to oppose, even though they have so far stayed almost entirely united against the legislation.
“That should be the easiest thing to get passed that you’ve ever had,” Trump said. “Those are best of Trump. This is the No. 1 priority, it should be, for the House.”
Congress
Rising energy prices threaten cornerstone of GOP midterm pitch
DORAL, Florida — The economic fallout from President Donald Trump’s decision to go to war with Iran is imperiling the GOP’s legislative sales pitch ahead of the midterms, with energy price spikes threatening at least some of the pocketbook gains Americans are seeing from the sweeping tax cuts Republicans enacted last year.
Analysts with the Wall Street advisory and investment firm Evercore ISI estimated Monday that the impact on household costs attributable to the current crisis could erase the tax benefits from the “big, beautiful bill” for at least the bottom 30 percent of Americans — even if oil prices come off their $100-plus-per-barrel highs.
Some top Republicans acknowledged rising energy prices are cause for political concern.
“The price of gas is always kind of a benchmark,” Senate Majority Leader John Thune told reporters on Capitol Hill Monday. “I do think the fact that we’ve increased our supply here domestically will help ease it, but it’s something obviously we’ve got to pay attention to. And hopefully the operations in Iran … won’t be an extended situation.”
The impact of higher gas prices is hitting just as House Republicans gather for their annual policy retreat at Trump’s resort in Doral, Florida. The evidence could be seen just outside the gates, where regular gas was retailing at multiple stations for $3.59 per gallon — up about 70 cents from the Miami-area average on Jan. 1, according to GasBuddy.com.
The hope among Republicans gathered at the resort is that the crisis is short-lived, with several saying they believed Trump’s assurances that the supply bottlenecks caused by Iran’s effective blockade of the Persian Gulf would soon ease.
“I believe there’s a lot of emotion built into energy prices,” Rep. Chuck Edwards (R-N.C.) said in an interview. “I would look for things to settle down very soon.”
But other Republicans granted anonymity to speak candidly expressed real alarm as crude oil prices surged to nearly $120 a barrel overnight before settling later in the day below $90 — still about 30 percent above recent lows.
“If you are a Republican and not concerned right now, you are stupid,” one House Republican said, adding, “Hopefully, we will square this away sooner than later.”
Another House Republican, asked if the wartime crisis threatened to overshadow the benefits of the GOP megabill, replied, “Hell yes.”
“The most sensitive thing amongst most driving Americans is the price of gasoline,” the person added, saying it threatens to send Americans “right up the wall.”
Trump is scheduled to address lawmakers in Doral shortly after markets close Monday, and they will be listening closely to his message on the hostilities in the Middle East and his plans to address high energy prices. He has announced plans to get oil shipments moving through the Gulf again, including by providing naval escorts for tankers and backstopping insurance for vessels.
White House spokesperson Taylor Rogers said in a statement that oil prices will “drop dramatically once the objectives of Operation Epic Fury are achieved.”
“President Trump and his entire energy team have had a strong game plan to keep the energy markets stable well before Operation Epic Fury began, and they will continue to review all credible options,” she said.
But the president so far has shown little interest in pushing his party to foremost focus on legislation tackling affordability, as some of his political aides have advised. Instead, Trump is pressing Senate Republicans to pass a sweeping GOP elections overhaul bill — adding on demands for a near-complete ban on mail voting and unrelated policy provisions like banning transgender surgeries for minors.
Hours before taking the stage in front of House Republicans at his Florida resort, he reiterated his request.
Even before the oil price shock, Trump’s agenda had come with a hefty price tag for consumers. Analysts at the Tax Foundation have already determined that the president’s trade policies cost Americans $1,000 on average last year, matching the average size of refund checks that Trump officials say will ease cost-of-living concerns.
The Supreme Court struck down many of Trump’s tariffs, but those that remain are projected to cost households $600 on average this year, according to the nonpartisan think tank.
House Republican leaders are hoping to keep the annual policy retreat focused on their legislative priorities ahead of the midterms. Rep. Lisa McClain of Michigan, the GOP Conference chair, said ahead of the retreat she hoped to firm up the party’s messaging around last year’s megabill.
But going into the Doral resort Monday, members were trained on all the reasons they hoped the politically perilous price spike would be short-lived.
House Natural Resources Chair Bruce Westerman (R-Ark.) said in an interview that reopening the Iranian-controlled Strait of Hormuz “would be even better for energy prices, although we’re seeing obviously a peak right now with the war going on.”
Rep. Riley Moore (R-W.Va.) said the supply crunch was “not an existential threat to us because of all the things we’ve done to make ourselves self reliant in terms of energy resources,” while acknowledging the “fungible” nature of the global oil market. He was hopeful about more ships navigating the Strait of Hormuz.
Rep. Carlos Gimenez (R-Fla.) said in an interview a “short-term gas price hike is … not what’s important.”
“What’s important is the long term benefits of having a peaceful Iran that means that gas prices will drop dramatically for the long term,” he said. “I’m not that concerned about it.”
Sam Sutton contributed to this report.
Congress
Thune: Talking filibuster ‘more complicated and risky’ than people realize
Senate Majority Leader John Thune sent a warning shot Monday over the talking filibuster, saying the procedural playcall is “way more complicated” than many supporters realize.
“This particular approach in terms of the process is much more complicated and risky than people are assuming at the moment,” Thune told reporters, cautioning that a talking filibuster without forcing through a formal rules change — for which there isn’t the votes — could take up months of Senate floor time.
Thune’s comments came after President Donald Trump urged the Senate to quickly take up and pass GOP-led voting legislation, known as the SAVE America Act — even if it means invoking a talking filibuster, which would force Democrats to physically hold the floor in order to block consideration of the bill.
Trump also pitched expanding the bill’s scope beyond voting to include red meat issues like banning men from participating in women’s sports and prohibiting gender affirming surgery for children. Thune said Monday it would “make sense” for the House to send an updated bill to reflect Trump’s latest priorities.
Thune is the target of a fierce online pressure campaign to skirt the Senate’s 60-vote legislative filibuster — coming both from House Republicans and what the majority leader characterized Monday as a “paid influencer ecosystem.”
Part of the pitch from Sen. Mike Lee (R-Utah) and his allies has been that Republicans could force Democrats into a talking filibuster without having to officially change the Senate rules or precedents. Thune reiterated Monday that formally nuking the legislative filibuster is “not going to happen.”
“The one thing I’ve said all along and I’ve told him and others — that I can’t guarantee an outcome,” Thune said, referring to Trump. “I can’t guarantee a result if the result is only achieved by nuking the legislative filibuster. We don’t have the votes to do that, and so that’s just not a realistic option and I’ve made that clear to anybody who’s asked.”
But a significant number of GOP senators are also skeptical of a talking filibuster even without changing the Senate’s rules. Some believe the gambit would permanently weaken the 60-vote legislative filibuster. Others think the procedural option being floated by Lee and others is unworkable because it would let Democrats bog down the floor and potentially hijack the bill for any proposal for which they could get at least 50 votes.
“The process and how you ultimately try and get a result is still unclear to me based on all the research we’ve done,” Thune said Monday about invoking a talking filibuster, adding that conversations are still ongoing within the conference about the process.
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