NORFOLK, Virginia – Six months out from November, Virginia Democrats believe the governor’s race is Abigail Spanberger’s to lose.

There’s a risk the former member of Congress could get bogged down by national malaise toward the Democratic Party, and her margins could end up being tight because of the negative Democratic brand.

But Democrats are hopeful that Spanberger can overcome that national dynamic. She flipped a competitive district in 2018 that stretches into rural Southwest Virginia and she benefits from the unpopular actions of President Donald Trump. His stop-and-start trade war coupled with the elimination of thousands of federal jobs and looming Medicaid cuts are widely unwelcome in the Commonwealth. Spanberger enjoys strong name recognition and is far out-fundraising her opponent, a candidate who even some fellow Republicans are wincing about.

A sweeping Democratic victory this fall could spook Republicans in Congress over their inaction to Trump’s aggressive agenda and provide a blueprint for staying laser focused on kitchen table issues like economic uncertainty and federal belt-tightening that the party can ride into the midterms next year.

“If we can get these people to vote we’re going to smoke them,” Virginia House Speaker Don Scott said. “We just got to get them to vote. That’s the fear – apathy.”

Spanberger, speaking with reporters ahead of a campaign event in the battleground region of Hampton Roads last week, shrugged off the fact that her campaign is under the national spotlight. She said the operation is “totally grounded” in Virginia and the “issues and priorities that matter here.”

“If that ends up setting a good example for other people running other places, then that’s their choice,” she said before entering a packed event full of local elected officials, donors and supporters in Norfolk, to mark the launch of her affordability agenda calling for lowering health care and prescription drug costs. She’s readying forthcoming plans to address other strains on Virginians’ budgets.

Selling strong messages on affordable housing, rural hospitals and public schools will help Democrats appeal to the more conservative parts of the state in Southwest and Central Virginia, said Aaron Rouse, a state senator and one of six Democrats running for lieutenant governor. Spanberger is “doing everything right so far,” he said.

Spanberger raised $6.7 million in the first quarter, dwarfing the $3.1 million brought in by opponent Winsome Earle-Sears, the lieutenant governor who was limited by state law from fundraising during the state legislative session earlier this year.

Early polling shows Spanberger is in a strong position: A Roanoke College survey this month showed her with a 17 percentage point lead, and more than half of respondents believe the country is on the wrong track. Another poll put the race at a much tighter margin, with Spanberger leading by four points.

But Spanberger’s campaign may run into the strong negative headwinds around the Democratic Party, which has been trying to reverse pessimistic attitudes toward its leaders. National Democrats believe that if Spanberger can broaden her appeal beyond the blue strongholds of Northern Virginia by convincingly talking about kitchen table issues, that will give them a much-needed morale boost and help guide them in the midterms.

Spanberger is focusing her campaign for governor on how she plans to lower costs – and blaming Trump in Washington and term-limited Republican Gov. Glenn Youngkin in Richmond for making life more expensive. Virginia’s off-year elections are viewed as a referendum on the party controlling Washington, and Democrats are feeling confident as Trump’s DOGE cuts come down hard on Virginia’s robust federal workforce.

A recent analysis from the University of Virginia found that the state is projected to lose more than 9,000 government jobs, propelling a downturn in employment that is worrying state leaders.

“[Trump] creates the general political environment that you’re in,” said Virginia-based Democratic strategist Ben Tribbett. “She’s done a pretty good job of surfing that wave, of bringing more people into the party when they’re not happy with what the Trump administration is doing.”

November turnout may answer how much Democrats can count on Trump’s disassembling of the federal government as a motivating issue in the midterms. Virginia Democrats, confident that Elon Musk’s unpopularity will linger even as his term as a special government employee has expired, point to Department of Defense workers and contractors living in the more competitive Hampton Roads area who lost their jobs as evidence that anger over DOGE is not just limited to the northern part of the state.

Youngkin has defended the cuts as necessary to trim government waste, and encouraged out-of-work Virginians to pursue other open jobs in the state. His office has created a website to connect former federal workers to new positions. Earle-Sears was captured on leaked audio in April saying that “we don’t want people to lose their jobs” but downplayed the losses.

“Abigail Spanberger is dusting off the same worn-out playbook that cost Democrats the governor’s mansion in 2021,” said Peyton Vogel, press secretary for the Earle-Sears campaign, in a statement, referring to when Youngkin defeated Democrat Terry McAuliffe. “Back then, Virginians rejected fear mongering messaging and chose a leader with real solutions to make life more affordable and move the Commonwealth forward. Spanberger’s current strategy failed then, and replaying it now won’t change the outcome.”

Moderate Democrats see Spanberger as the ideal candidate to confirm their view that the party should shift toward the middle. In 2018, she defeated Tea Partier Rep. Dave Brat in an upset, joining the wave of women elected to Congress on a wave of anti-Trump energy. But Trump is much more popular than he was in his first term, so appealing to his voters becomes a crucial part of the comeback strategy.

In her first campaign ad launched this week, Spanberger highlighted her bipartisan voting record while serving in Congress. In 2022, after Democrats came close to losing the House, she was captured on leaked audio criticizing Democrats for embracing positions defunding the police and warned them to “never use the word socialism again.”

“Her biggest vulnerability is being a Democrat in this moment, but she is sufficiently defining herself as a different kind of Democrat,” said Matt Bennett, co-founder of the center-left group Third Way. “She watched carefully what happened to us in 2024 and is trying not to make the same mistakes, just trying to keep her focus on the things that voters actually care about and not get distracted by things that they don’t.”

Democrats view Hampton Roads, a competitive area that Spanberger needs to win, as the epicenter of several of Trump’s policies. In addition to DOGE layoffs, the Port of Virginia located here is bracing for a decline in shipments from other major trading partners.

It’s also a popular vacation destination for America’s neighbors to the north. Virginia Beach State Del. Michael Feggans, a Democrat running for reelection in one of the most competitive state legislative races, said he’s heard from local business leaders concerned about the decline of Canadian tourists annoyed by Trump’s annexation talk. Democrats are aiming to expand their one-seat majority in the state House, and are adopting a similar economic message as Spanberger to try to make that happen.

“He said on day one he was going to fix the price of everything and bring world peace, and there’s been nothing but chaos, confusion, and people are scared and people are worried,” Feggens said.

Virginia Republicans, on the other hand, are banking on DOGE being a distant memory when voters head to the polls in November. Those Republicans are skeptical that Spanberger’s anti-Trump message will resonate beyond the Democratic base, and they insist that swayable voters.

“Her entire message seems to be: Trump sucks,” said a Republican operative granted anonymity to speak freely. “When you get down to brass tacks, people want to see what exactly are you going to do.”

COLUMBIA, SOUTH CAROLINA — Democrats here took a vital first step in delivering Joe Biden the presidency five years ago. Now, they’re hoping his tarnished legacy won’t jeopardize their future as an early primary state.

Already, there are hints some Democrats will revert to New Hampshire holding the party’s initial primary contest, while progressives want to see labor-heavy Nevada take the lead. And there’s even talk of friendlier southern states, like Georgia or North Carolina, leapfrogging South Carolina.

“The unfortunate part is, Democrats are saying that, and they think that [South Carolina leading] is a bad part of Biden’s legacy,” said Bre Booker-Maxwell, a national committeewoman, Saturday on the sidelines of the state party’s convention.

She questioned the rationale of such a decision, before answering herself. “The fact that the man ran the second time, and he probably shouldn’t have run?” she asked skeptically. “Some people just need to get over themselves and whatever issues they have with Joe Biden.”

Attempts to move past Biden and the bad aftertaste of 2024 got underway this weekend as state party insiders hosted a pair of out-of-state governors with obvious, but still publicly undeclared, sights on the 2028 nomination.

Govs. Wes Moore of Maryland and Tim Walz of Minnesota took turns gracing the outdoor stage while onlookers feasted on whiting filet on white bread, at the World Famous Fish Fry, an annual tradition hosted by the state’s Democratic kingmaker, Rep. Jim Clyburn (D-S.C.).

Walz, the first to greet the crowd, spoke of the missteps from the last cycle and Democrats needing to expand their reach beyond a handful of swing states.

“I went to the same seven damn states over and over and over,” Walz said. “People are pissed off in South Carolina, they’re pissed off in Texas, they’re pissed off in Indiana. … We need to change the attitude, compete in every district, compete for every school board seat.”

Moore, who earlier Friday delivered the keynote address at the state party’s Blue Palmetto Dinner, drew cheers from the mostly Black attendees of the fish fry when he said “we come from a resilient culture” and encouraged them not to run in the face of challenge. He then pivoted to Trump and the havoc his so-called big beautiful bill would create if passed, which Moore suggested would push tens of thousands of kids into poverty while enriching the president’s billionaire buddies.

Once speeches wrapped, several in the crowd broke into line dance while South Carolina crooner 803 Fresh’s campaign anthem “Boots on the Ground” blared over loudspeakers.

It was not the rip-roaring affair of 2019 when a cavalcade of 21 presidential candidates — including Biden — wooed attendees with stump speeches. Friday night’s gathering at the EdVenture Children’s Museum was held as many Democrats are still grappling with the pain of widespread electoral defeats.

Biden’s return to the national spotlight — through negative coverage detailing how those in his inner circle shielded the president’s deteriorating condition from the outside world — has only resurfaced some long-held misgivings about his legacy.

“All this talk about President Biden and what should have and what could have, what might have, is a bunch of bullshit,” said Trav Robertson, a longtime Democratic operative and former chair of the state party. “We can peck that to death if you want to, but that is in the past. South Carolina represents going into the future.”

South Carolina, a state where Black Democrats make up a substantial portion of primary voters, played a pivotal role resurrecting Biden’s moribund campaign. When Clyburn threw his support behind Biden ahead of the South Carolina primary in 2020, it vaulted him to the nomination and later, the presidency. In return, Biden pressured the Democratic Party to upend its traditional nomination calendar by moving the state to the lead-off position.

But that electoral situation was tenuous. By running for reelection, Biden sapped energy out of the 2024 primary. Now, party officials are bracing for its status as the kickoff state to be ripped away.

“I think it would be a mistake to act like South Carolina’s place [at the top] is just because of Biden, when this has been a conversation we’ve been having for 20 years,” said Nick Sottile, an attorney and executive director of the South Carolina House Democrats.

Like nearly every Democrat in the state, he points out the benefits of South Carolina are vast. In addition to paying homage to a vital Democratic voting bloc, the small state with relatively cheap media markets won’t bankrupt campaigns, which can hit upstate, midlands and the coast — a mix of urban, suburban and rural areas — all on a single tank of gas. Then there’s the robust defense of South Carolina primary voters’ history of picking presidents — Bill Clinton in 1992, Barack Obama in 2008 and Biden in 2020 — particularly in contrast to New Hampshire and Iowa.

“We get it right, and it’s a proven track record,” Sottile added. “It’s not one election and one candidate that we’re talking about.”

That feeling is not shared by many outside the state.

A longtime member of the DNC’s committee that helps determine the presidential primary order granted anonymity to discuss informal discussions suggested South Carolina’s current spot atop the calendar will undoubtedly come under scrutiny in the coming months.

“Clearly South Carolina members will want to continue to be first in the calendar for obvious reasons,” the person said. “I think that no one else is going to feel any kind of obligation to keep South Carolina at the top of the calendar — because Biden is gone.”

Biden may have unintentionally shattered South Carolina’s standing next cycle, which only adds to a sense of betrayal over his role in ushering in another Trump presidency.

“There are people who are just mad as hell about everything that happened in 2024,” said Sam Skardon of Charleston.

He admits he was one of the few in the state party who believed Biden’s promise to be a “bridge” candidate to the next generation. He took the job as chair of the Charleston County Democrats in March 2023 hoping to preside over a robust primary. A month later, Biden announced his reelection bid.

“There’s a special connection here that’s a deeper attachment, I think, than most states’ Democratic Parties have to President Biden, probably up there with Delaware for thinking of him as our own,” Skardon added. “But yeah, then there is additional anger, I think, at Biden for … not not letting us put our best foot forward.”

Some believe Biden is simply too convenient a scapegoat for the party’s broader problems. Backpedaling on giving Black voters more of a say in picking the party’s nominee could erode trust in a bloc that’s already drifting away from the party.

“It is a slap in the face … to Black Americans, where people are questioning Joe Biden at this point,” said Antjuan Seawright, a Democratic strategist who resumed his role as emcee of the fish fry. “It was Joe Biden who had the steel spine, the guts and the courage to declare that Black Americans’ voices should be heard first in the presidential preference process.”

But Seawright also shared concerns that too many voters here view Democrats as out of touch.

“I think trust was a part of the formula for Trump’s success in the last election cycle,” Seawright added. “You had some people who, in my opinion, did not necessarily vote for Donald Trump, they voted against the Democratic brand.”

At the Palmetto Dinner, Jaime Harrison, the chair emeritus of the Democratic National Committee and Orangeburg, South Carolina, native revved up the crowd by putting a positive spin on the party’s standing in state since Biden left the stage.

“We are more organized, we are more energized, and we are more focused than ever before,” he said, heaping praise on the state’s party chair Christale Spain who was elected to a second term on Saturday. “I am going to be on record right now to the South Carolina Republican Party, 2026 is going to be a reckoning.”

Amanda Loveday, a Democratic strategist based in Columbia who worked on Biden’s 2020 presidential campaign, is another South Carolina defender. But she is less optimistic given South Carolina’s Democrats, who have long been locked out of power in the state, suffered setbacks last cycle.

“We lost [state] Senators and House members that we have absolutely no business losing,” Loveday said, which included two prominent Black lawmakers including state Sen. Gerald Malloy and state Rep. Joseph Jefferson.

Republicans flipped four state Senate seats last cycle, leaving just 12 Democrats in the chamber. And in the presidential election, Trump’s victory was never in doubt, but he increased his margin by 6 percentage points over 2020.

All this is fueling speculation that South Carolina’s neighbors — North Carolina and Georgia — which have notched statewide wins for Democrats in recent cycles, have better arguments to hurdle South Carolina in the primary calendar.