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The Dictatorship

A painful retooling is coming for the Democratic Party

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A painful retooling is coming for the Democratic Party

After Republicans lost to Barack Obama in 2008, the tea party — a combative conservative grassroots movement — came together almost overnight, primaried establishment Republicans and remade the party. Today, Democrats on Capitol Hill are feeling pressure from their base. Angry Democratic voters are flooding town halls held by lawmakers of both parties. Sen. Bernie Sanders and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez pack stadiums at their “Stop the Oligarchy” rallies. The first notable progressive primary challenger of 2026, Kat Abughazaleh, raised $200,000 on her first day in the race. And headline after headline is calling this movement a “Democratic tea party.”

But the comparisons to the tea party are mistaken. Democratic leaders have a better relationship with their base than the GOP of 2009 did. If they play their cards right, they’ll end up with a retooling of the party — not a revolt.

The base mostly wants a Democratic Party that will take the fight to Trump.

Establishment Republican leaders lost control of their party because they failed to serve their base. Though Republican voters wanted to see decreased immigrationGOP leaders pursued immigration reform in 2007 and 2013. Though less than a quarter of Republican primary voters wanted cuts to Medicare and Social SecurityRepublicans put Rep. Paul Ryan of Wisconsin, the party’s chief entitlement-cutter, on the 2012 presidential ticket. And though, as Republican pollster Patrick Ruffini wrote, the Republican base wanted “maximum confrontation” on culture war issues, GOP leaders (prior to Trump) frequently pursued more of a tactical retreat.

Today’s Democrats have a better relationship with their base. There’s no issue like immigration or entitlement cuts, where elected leaders openly defy their voters’ clearly articulated wishes. Swing voters disagree with the scope of Democrats’ support for trans rightsand believe the party lacks credibility on immigration. But the base mostly wants a Democratic Party that will take the fight to Trump. And Democrats already have leaders, like Sanders and Ocasio-Cortez, who want to meet that need.

Another core feature of the tea party movement was that it fought the establishment everywhere. They challenged establishment Republicans in red and swing states, even when it cost the party winnable elections. Richard Mourdock, who beat the Republican incumbent, Richard Lugar, in Indiana’s 2012 GOP Senate primary, went on to say pregnancies due to rape were “something God intended” and lost the seat. In Delaware’s 2010 Senate election, establishment Republicans wanted to run former Gov. Mike Castle, but the tea party pushed a little-known and inexperienced candidate named Christine O’Donnell. She won the primary, but lost the general after declaring in a campaign ad “I am not a witch.” The list goes on.

Democrats have a healthier pattern: Experiment with insurgents in safe seats and nominate electable candidates in tough races.

The most famous progressive primary challengers — Reps. Ocasio-Cortez, Ayanna Pressley and Marie Newman — dethroned long-serving Democrats in safe blue seats. Abughazaleh, the first progressive primary challenger of the 2026 cycle, is running in a district Kamala Harris won by 37 percentage points. There was never any danger of these candidates losing to a Republican.

In swing states, Democrats coalesce around less progressive candidates. Rising stars like Josh Shapiro, Ruben Gallego, Elissa Slotkin, Mark Kelly and Gretchen Whitmer either ran unopposed or won their primary handily. Progressives haven’t made too much trouble in these races.

Some high-profile, aging Democratic leaders likely will face primary challenges. Some may lose.

There are exceptions to both these rules. The tea party backed some electable swing state candidates, like Marco Rubio, then a senator from Florida. Progressives and moderates end up in occasional fights, like the 2022 Senate primary between John Fetterman and Conor Lamb in Pennsylvania. But, in general, the Democratic insurgency is acting more strategically — and working more effectively with the establishment — than the tea party ever did.

The Democratic retooling might be painful — but it doesn’t look like a tea party yet. Leading Democrats won’t get out of this moment unscathed. Some high-profile, aging Democratic leaders likely will face primary challenges. Some may lose. But younger, savvier Democratic politicians will find ways to get more combative with the Trump administration — and stop a primary challenge before it materializes. And in 2028, Democratic presidential contenders will try to move on from the playbook of the Obama-Biden era and fashion a new strategy that more effectively leverages voter anger.

But a new approach is not a “tea party.” It’s a slightly-more-turbulent-than-usual reshuffle. And if Democrats can stay close to their voters — reflecting their values on the key issues, shedding unpopular positions, staying on top of potential new issues (e.g., job losses to AI) and satisfying the desire for fierce opposition to Trump — the party may come out of this tumult in good shape.

David Byler

David Byler is chief of research at Noble Predictive Insights, a non-partisan polling firm anchored in the Southwest. He was previously a data columnist for the Washington Post.

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The Dictatorship

‘He’s a loser’: Tim Walz says Elon Musk’s ‘toxic personality’ repels voters

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‘He’s a loser’: Tim Walz says Elon Musk’s ‘toxic personality’ repels voters
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The Dictatorship

Snubbing Trump, bipartisan group of senators votes against Canada tariffs

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Snubbing Trump, bipartisan group of senators votes against Canada tariffs

In short order, Donald Trump has done extraordinary harm to the relationship between the United States and Canada. There are plenty of lawmakers on Capitol Hill — in both parties — who believe the president is on the wrong track, especially when it comes to trade tariffs on our allies north of the border.

With this in mind, Democratic Sen. Tim Kaine of Virginia has championed a privileged resolution that would terminate the president’s Feb. 1 emergency declaration, which the White House used to issue tariffs on Canada. It would also, of course, eliminate the need for Canada’s retaliatory tariffs on American products.

The question has long been whether Kaine, whose measure was co-authored with Democratic Sens. Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota and Mark Warner of Virginia, could pick up a handful of Republican supporters to clear the upper chamber. That question now has an answer.

The Senate voted 51-48 to pass the resolutionwith four Republicans — Lisa Murkowski of Alaska, Mitch McConnell and Rand Paul of Kentucky and Susan Collins of Maine — joining all 47 Democrats in support.

The outcome is striking, though it’s not altogether surprising. Paul, for example, is a longtime tariff critic and co-sponsor of Kaine’s resolution, while Collins and Murkowski signaled their support for the Democratic measure ahead of the floor vote.

Of particular interest, though, was McConnell, who is retiring next year and has become an occasional thorn in the White House’s sideand who’s likely to face another round of hysterical criticisms from the Oval Office.

As a practical matter, the fact that Kaine’s resolution passed won’t have any immediate policy implications: The measure will now head to the GOP-led House, where it will very likely go ignored.

That said, as a Politico report summarized it, losing this vote represents “the most significant rebuke to Trump that congressional Republicans have yet mustered in his second term.”

It’s precisely why Trump recently began lobbying aggressively against Kaine’s resolution, publishing an item to his social media platform that said a Senate vote in support of the measure would be “devastating for the Republican Party.”

In a follow-up itemthe president wrote that GOP senators should “fight the Democrats wild and flagrant push to not penalize Canada for the sale, into our Country, of large amounts of Fentanyl, by Tariffing the value of this horrible and deadly drug in order to make it more costly to distribute and buy.” The missive suggested that Trump was under the impression that he’s imposing tariffs on fentanyl, which doesn’t make any sense.

He went on to write, “Why are they allowing Fentanyl to pour into our Country unchecked, and without penalty. What is wrong with them, other than suffering from Trump Derangement Syndrome, commonly known as TDS? Who can want this to happen to our beautiful families, and why?”

To the extent that reality still has any relevance in the debate, the idea that fentanyl is “pouring into” the United States is rather silly. In fact, according to U.S. Customs and Border Protection, only 43 pounds of fentanyl were found crossing the northern border in 2024 — as opposed to 21,100 pounds seized at the southern border.

Fighting a trade war with a trusted ally and neighbor over fentanyl that could fit in a single suitcase is absurd. The president might not understand this, but a bipartisan majority of the Senate got it right.

Steve legs

Steve Benen is a producer for “The Rachel Maddow Show,” the editor of MaddowBlog and an BLN political contributor. He’s also the bestselling author of “Ministry of Truth: Democracy, Reality, and the Republicans’ War on the Recent Past.”

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The Dictatorship

Trump’s TikTok proposal for China blows a hole in his tariff talk

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Trump’s TikTok proposal for China blows a hole in his tariff talk

President Donald Trump is desperate to close a deal for a U.S.-based buyer to purchase TikTok. So desperate, in fact, that he has proposed giving China relief on tariffs if its government approves a deal. That proposal has predictably been panned by Democrats and Republicans alike.

After all, Trump said he was placing tariffs on China largely to try to stop fentanyl from reaching the United States. The fact he’s willing to dangle a reduction in exchange for a TikTok deal shows how incoherent his talk about tariffs is and how eager he is to bring TikTok under America’s — and perhaps, by extension, his administration’s — control.

All the while, Big Tech elites and the companies they lead are circling TikTok like sharks, hoping they get their shot to sink their teeth into the app.

Last year, I wrote about how rich right-wingersincluding “Shark Tank” co-panelist Kevin O’Leary, have shown interest in a purchase. And now, Amazon has joined the list of suitors looking to buy the app.

According to NBC News:

Amazon has made a late bid to purchase TikTok, a person familiar with the ongoing White House-led discussions to identify a non-Chinese buyer for the social media app told NBC News. The bid, first reported by The New York Times, arrived this week, via a letter to Vice President JD Vance and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick. Given the last-minute timing, days before a Saturday deadline to stave off a ban of the app in the U.S., the bid is not being treated as serious, said the source, who was granted anonymity to share details of private negotiations.

TikTok was set to be banned in January as a result of a bipartisan billsigned last spring by President Joe Biden, that required the Chinese-owned app to be sold to an American-based owner or cease operating in the United States. The app’s owners didn’t meet that deadline, of course, and TikTok was briefly banned. But Trump defied the law when he took office, signing an executive order saying that he was instructing the Justice Department to not take action against TikTok for a period of 75 days, which ends Saturday.

For the record, legal experts have sounded the alarm on Trump’s authoritarian power grab in this case, although sadly, many TikTok fans have seemed indifferent to it as long as they can still have access to their favorite mind control device. Trump’s personal involvement in the negotiations has set up a possibility that TikTok, which like other apps has occasionally been plagued by a raft of propaganda and misinformationmight be sold to a MAGA-friendly owner who is sympathetic to conservatives’ rage over content moderation.

Ownership by Amazon, the company owned by Jeff Bezos, certainly wouldn’t dispel concerns — mine, at least — that TikTok could become even more of a boon for Trump’s movement than it already has been.

Amazon donated $1 million toward Trump’s inauguration, Bezos appeared onstage with the gaggle of Big Tech oligarchs at Trump’s inaugural ceremony, Amazon reportedly signed a sweetheart $40 million deal for the rights to distribute a documentary about with first lady Melania Trump, and Bezos’ changes at The Washington Post — which he also owns — have justifiably prompted speculation that he’s transforming it to become more friendly to Trump. Beyond that, the London-based Institute for Strategic Dialogue released a report in 2022 finding that Amazon’s recommendation algorithms were steering some people toward conspiracy theories and extremist content.

To put it mildly, that’s not great for a company looking to purchase what is arguably the most popular social media platform in the world. That said, there are other sharks in the water looking to sink their teeth into TikTok, and Trump is obviously champing at the bit to secure a buyer before Saturday.

Ja’han Jones

Ja’han Jones is an BLN opinion blogger. He previously wrote The ReidOut Blog. He is a futurist and multimedia producer focused on culture and politics. His previous projects include “Black Hair Defined” and the “Black Obituary Project.”

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