Congress
A delay in GOP’s tax plans could push up costs by hundreds of billions
The price of extending Republicans’ tax cuts will surge by hundreds of billions of dollars if lawmakers dawdle, new government figures show.
The Treasury Department released numbers Friday showing that rolling over all of the soon-to-lapse provisions, as well as undoing other reductions in business benefits that were triggered by the 2017 law, would cost $5.5 trillion — substantially more than the $4 trillion the Congressional Budget Office has projected.
There’s a number of reasons why Treasury’s price tag is much higher but a big one is that its analysis begins in 2026, not 2025, like CBO’s.
That may not sound like a big deal, but when budget analysts estimate the price of legislation, they look at the anticipated expenses over a decade, and it makes a huge difference when the cost-counting clock starts.
Right now, the government is in its 2025 fiscal year, and so analysts look at years 2025 through 2034 — and expenses in 2025 are minimal because Republicans’ tax cuts are still on the books. About 40 provisions are due to expire at the end of the year.
But when the new fiscal year begins Oct. 1, analysts will begin tallying up costs between 2026 and 2035, as Treasury happened to do in its in analysis. That means the very cheap year of 2025 will fall out of the picture, and the very expensive year of 2035 — when costs are expected to run $600 billion — will suddenly be included.
House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) has said he wants to get a bill including the tax provisions on President-elect Donald Trump’s desk by the end of April — an ambitious timeline given the size of the package and Congress’ tendency to dawdle. Some tax vets now expect lawmakers to take until their August recess to wrap up their plans, if not longer.
Republicans are off to a slow start, with lawmakers bogged down in an extended and so far unresolved debate over whether to tackle immigration first and put off taxes until later or combine them into a single bill.
The House and Senate intend to go their own ways, with competing approaches, which amounts to postponing critical decisions, like how much to spend on a tax bill, that have to be resolved before they can use the “reconciliation” procedure they’re depending on to get their plans through the balky Senate.
Treasury wasn’t trying to warn Republicans of the cost of delay; it was examining the cost and the biggest winners of renewing the provisions. Not surprisingly, the analysis says the super-rich would see the biggest benefits, with the top 0.1 percent reaping a 4.2 percent increase in their after-tax incomes compared to the roughly 1.2 percent increase for those in the middle of the income spectrum.
CBO is expected to release next week its own revised estimates of the cost of extending the provisions.
Last year, it put the price at $4 trillion or $4.6 trillion, including increased debt service.
It’s not like Congress to work far ahead of schedule, but had lawmakers taken up the extension of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act in 2023, the price would have been easier to swallow. CBO pegged the cost then at a comparatively paltry $3 trillion, or $3.45 trillion including interest expense — because its estimate then included not just one but two cheap years, 2024 and 2025.
Congress
Final Senate megabill to ease wind and solar phaseout
Senate Republicans intend to remove a controversial tax on solar and wind energy projects as part of their budget megabill, according to three people familiar with the plans.
Republicans’ final amendment to wrap in last-minute changes to the budget reconciliation bill will include a compromise for Senate hold-outs by removing the tax, as well as providing a carve-out from the tax credit phase-out for solar and wind projects that begin construction less than one year after the bill’s enactment, according to the three people, who were granted anonymity because they were not authorized to speak publicly.
The amendment would still require other solar and wind energy projects to be placed in service by the end of 2027, echoing language in the Senate’s updated text last week that could threaten hundreds of planned projects.
It would also make changes to complex requirements that prohibit sourcing from foreign entities of concern that companies had seen as unworkable.
The approach marks a potential compromise between camps of GOP senators who were divided on the phase-outs for the credits, including Sen. Lisa Murkowski, a key swing vote.
The excise tax on solar and wind generation projects was quietly added to the Senate’s budget reconciliation text last week, prompting widespread pushback from clean energy developers and advocates.
Under the new draft, solar and wind projects seeking the Inflation Reduction Act’s tax credits can begin construction within one year after the date of the bill’s enactment to qualify for the credits, but projects that begin construction after that would need to be placed into service before the end of 2027 to qualify for the credit.
Republicans released updated megabill text last week that would make sharp cuts to the climate law’s solar and wind tax credits by requiring projects seeking to claim the law’s clean electricity production and investment tax credits be placed in service by the end of 2027.
The changes to the bill were negotiated behind the scenes as an amendment from Sens. Joni Ernst (R-Iowa), Murkowski (R-Alaska) and Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa).
Sen. John Curtis (R-Utah) also played a key role in negotiating the changes, a person familiar with the talks said.
James Bikales contributed to this report.
Congress
Senate GOP releases updated megabill text
Senate Republicans have released an updated draft of their domestic-policy megabill ahead of final floor action.
The 887-page text is not expected to be the final legislation passed by the Senate; further revisions are being made in the last moments before the final amendment and passage of the bill.
Congress
Senate prepares to take final megabill votes
The Senate is on track to start voting on final amendments and passage of the GOP megabill.
“I believe we do” have a deal, Senate Majority Leader John Thune told reporters.
There will be several amendments debated before the final vote, according to Sen. John Hoeven (R-N.D.). One, he said, would be from Sen. Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota, challenging a provision negotiated to placate GOP holdout Sen. Lisa Murkowski dealing with the SNAP food-aid program in her home state of Alaska.
A final “wraparound” amendment reflecting other negotiated points is also expected to be offered that will tweak provisions dealing with Medicaid and clean energy tax credits.
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