Congress
Capitol agenda: Sprinting toward a megabill vote
The pieces could finally be falling into place for Speaker Mike Johnson to pass his “big, beautiful bill” as soon as Wednesday.
Johnson and a group of blue-state Republicans struck a tentative deal late Tuesday to boost the cap on state-and-local-tax deductions to $40,000, according to three Republicans with direct knowledge — a huge breakthrough in the negotiations.
House Freedom Caucus members appear willing to swallow that offer, and it’s a positive sign they aren’t saying “no” off the bat. Rep. Scott Perry (Pa.) left the speaker’s office Tuesday night saying he’s “for zero SALT, personally” but wants to see “what’s the give and take” from the final negotiations.
Here’s one sweetener leadership has presented the hard-liners: Johnson’s team is working to accelerate the phase-out of clean energy tax credits created by the Democrats’ 2022 climate law. House Majority Leader Steve Scalise told reporters Tuesday night the bill would “limit dramatically any new projects from starting” using Inflation Reduction Act incentives.
Privately, some of the conservative holdouts are looking for just such an offramp, eager to find a “yes” while also proclaiming victory on their issues. Rep. Glenn Grothman (Wis.) left the speaker’s office Tuesday saying it would “take guts” for Republicans to sink President Donald Trump’s bill on the House floor.
“If you’re in Mike Johnson’s office, it’s easy to say, I’m going to vote no,” Grothman said, adding it’s a lot harder to actually do it.
What Johnson needs to resolve before a floor vote: Fiscal hawks also want deeper cuts to Medicaid, which would be a red line for moderates — and probably even for Trump, who yesterday morning told House Republicans not to “fuck with” the safety-net program. It’s unclear if the rest of the conference will accept the current SALT agreement.
And we’re still waiting on final bill text to reflect any of these changes, which will be bundled into a “manager’s amendment” to be taken up by the House Rules Committee. The GOP-led panel convened at 1 a.m. to begin debate on the massive tax and spending package in hopes of being able to pave the way for a floor vote in the coming hours.
Other required reading:
— The megabill got a preliminary Congressional Budget Office report amid Tuesday night negotiations that predicted the legislation would lead to increased assets for the richest Americans, while reducing them for the lowest-income households through cuts to federal spending on Medicaid and food aid. That’s sure to fuel attacks from Democrats.
— Even if Johnson can pull off passing the megabill through the House, he’s about to face plenty of headaches in the Senate.
What else we’re watching:
— DC voting bill: The House Oversight Committee will vote on a bill at 10 a.m. that would prohibit noncitizens from voting in the District of Columbia. The bill has significant bipartisan appeal: It passed the House last year with the support of 52 Democrats.
— EPA waiver repeal: Republicans are poised to vote Wednesday to overturn the three EPA waivers that the GAO found don’t qualify as a rule that can be reversed with a Congressional Review Act resolution. Senate Majority Whip John Barrasso privately made the case to Republicans that the fight over whether to nix California’s emission standards was really about the Senate making a decision about how to wield its own power.
Rachael Bade, Jordain Carney, Meredith Lee Hill and Ben Leonard contributed to this report.
Congress
Senate confirms 74 Trump nominees
Senate Republicans confirmed dozens of President Donald Trump’s nominees Friday, just before they leave for a five-week congressional recess.
Senators voted 51-47 to approve officials at the Departments of Defense, Energy, State and other agencies.
They included David Cummins to head the Transportation Security Administration, Cameron Hamilton to lead the Federal Emergency Management Agency, Hal Duncan to be OMB deputy director and Francis Brooke to be Treasury deputy secretary. Among the group were several ambassadors, including former Rep. David Brat to be ambassador to Australia.
Senate Republicans changed the chamber’s rules last year to be able to confirm lower-level nominees as a package instead of having to hold a vote on each.
After finishing the expedited procedure Friday, Senate Republicans estimate they will only have a small number of civilian nominees awaiting confirmation.
Congress
Trump says voters are mad at other Republicans, not him, as midterms approach
President Donald Trump said voters may seek to punish Republicans — but not him — in the November midterm elections, as GOP lawmakers sweat that affordability concerns and the war in Iran could mean Democrats flip the House and perhaps even the Senate.
“They’re angry at Republicans,” Trump said in an interview with Punchbowl News that aired Friday. “But they’re not angry at me. They’re not angry at me, but they are angry at Republicans.”
The GOP faces the prospect of heavy losses this November, as gas and grocery prices remain stubbornly high due in part to the White House’s five-month-long war in Iran. The administration’s guidance on campaign trail messaging has been “tone deaf,” House Republicans fear.
Meanwhile, the president’s approval rating has tumbled since he returned to the Oval Office last year, and even his biggest supporters have grown frustrated over his Middle East war.
And with a messy, jam-packed slate of primaries now all but in the rearview mirror, Democrats are determined to go on offense. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has 58 seats on its midterm target map that stretches into redder territory — while still facing an uphill climb to take the Senate.
Trump has a massive war chest at his disposal. His MAGA Inc. super PAC reached $400 million in June. The president told Punchbowl he plans to use it to “help Republicans,” but he stressed that he faces no pressure in this campaign cycle.
“I said to somebody, ‘Wait a minute, you don’t understand, I won,’” Trump said, referencing his 2024 presidential election victory. “I’m not campaigning.”
The biggest issue for Republicans this year? That Trump himself is not on the ballot, he said.
“If I don’t run, will those people go out and vote? And that’s the one thing I can’t tell, I’m going to ask them to,” he said.
Congress
Capitol agenda: Senators find their exit strategy
The Senate’s plan to get out of town is coming together.
Majority Leader John Thune teed up a final vote on the Russia sanctions legislation for this morning, as well as a confirmation vote for dozens of nominees and a procedural step on a stopgap funding bill.
But there’s still a number of questions that need to be answered if Thune wants to adjourn for recess by the end of the day:
— BLANCHE’S FATE: President Donald Trump’s pick for attorney general needs to secure at least one more vote to be confirmed before the break.
It looks like it’s all up to Sen. Bill Cassidy after Sen. Lisa Murkowski announced Friday morning she is opposed. Thune indicated Thursday night Blanche’s fate was uncertain and that leaders were “still working to get the final vote.”
— SAVE AMERICA ACT: Thune said to expect a vote related to the SAVE America Act as well as an initial vote on a budget blueprint for a third party-line spending bill — which includes elements of Trump’s election security legislation.
The decision to hold the budget vote comes after two Republican senators, granted anonymity to speak candidly, told Blue Light News Thursday they believed Sen. Mike Lee or another member of the GOP’s right flank would have otherwise forced a vote on the framework.
But as we’ve previously reported, Republicans don’t believe the budget resolution has the votes within the conference to be adopted — meaning the expected initial vote today will fail to clear a simple majority threshold.
And it’s not clear Lee or like-minded senators will be satisfied and allow for lawmakers to adjourn for recess without more action on the elections measure. The senator has made similar threats over the past year but has never followed through.
— TIME AGREEMENT: GOP leaders need to strike an agreement to finish other business, including passing the stopgap government funding bill and advancing a college sports bill.
At this point, any single senator could still object to expediting the chamber’s agenda, which would derail Thune’s goal of getting members out of town by the end of the day.
“We’ve been having these conversations with Democrats trying to figure out what’s the path,” Thune said.
“We’ll see how it goes,” he added.
What else we’re watching:
— GOP EXPECTS CRYPTO BILL DELAY: The Senate will leave for the chamber’s August recess without holding a vote on a landmark cryptocurrency bill, according to three people with knowledge of the matter. Thune may still file cloture on the bill, but it likely won’t come to the floor until lawmakers return to Washington next month, two of the people said.
— COLLEGE SPORTS BILL STUMBLES: Sens. Ted Cruz and Maria Cantwell’s legislation to impose new guardrails on college sports is looking increasingly unlikely to hit the floor this week. Eleven senators objected to expedited consideration of the Protect College Sports Act after Thune filed cloture earlier this week, two people familiar with discussions told Blue Light News.
— OGLES OUSTED: GOP House leaders lost an incumbent — and a perennial headache — with Rep. Andy Ogles’ primary defeat in Tennessee Thursday night. His loss to former Tennessee Agriculture Commissioner Charlie Hatcher represents the second Trump-endorsed candidate to lose a primary this week.
Jordain Carney, Mia McCarthy, Andrew Howard and Jacob Wendler contributed to this report.
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