Congress
Hurdles remain for Republicans’ Medicaid quest
After a meeting Wednesday afternoon with vulnerable House Republicans wary of Medicaid cuts, House Energy and Commerce Committee Chair Brett Guthrie (R-Ky.) acknowledged there are still obstacles to enacting major changes to the safety net program as part of the GOP’s massive megabill.
Lawmakers have been weighing a new plan to place so-called per capita caps on Medicaid funding to certain beneficiaries in states that have expanded the program under the Affordable Care Act. Guthrie told reporters Wednesday all options remain on the table at this point, but said there are still some opponents with whom he has not yet spoken.
“We’ve had a couple of comments from some people saying that seems to be too far for them to go,” Guthrie told reporters, adding that the sheer scale of work being done by Republicans as they try to extend Trump’s tax cuts and beef up border enforcement can add to confusion for lawmakers.
“The issue with everything that’s going on here is that the Ways and Means, Agriculture committees and others are all doing things and a lot of people aren’t exposed to it and they hear things,” Guthrie said. “I sit down and walk through some policy options and I think I made people feel more comfortable with where we are. We’re not going to do anything that’s drastic.”
The Energy and Commerce Committee has been tasked with finding $880 billion in cuts, meaning they will likely have to lean heavily on Medicaid to achieve those savings.
In the closed-door meeting, Guthrie ticked through current options Republicans were considering, but only verbally, according to two people with direct knowledge of the matter. Earlier in the week, Energy and Commerce Republicans were treated to a formal slide deck laying out different policy options. Lawmakers at the meeting Wednesday asked for a list of the proposals but still have yet to receive anything.
Asked if his committee is still on track to mark up its portion of the bill next week as planned, Guthrie said, “we’re working.”
Guthrie also said he hasn’t spoken with Trump yet, but he’s looking to arrange that.
Rep. Rob Bresnahan (R-Pa.), who met with Guthrie Wednesday, said in an interview that the plans for the markup are still “fluid.” He said lawmakers are considering at least two types of work requirements, one optional and the other mandatory for states to adopt.
“There are a lot of different proposals flying around, a lot of evolution to this,” Bresnahan said. “We just need to get a handle on what it actually means and boiling it back down to my district.”
Rep. Nick LaLota (R-N.Y.) said Wednesday that Republicans could hit $370 billion in savings from work requirements, kicking noncitizens off rolls and more frequent eligibility checks.
Guthrie is planning to meet with House Freedom Caucus members later Wednesday evening, as the hard-liners push for steep spending cuts across the program.
Robert King contributed to this report.
Congress
Mike Rogers opens the door for AIPAC support in Michigan Senate race
Michigan GOP Senate nominee Mike Rogers signaled he would accept support from AIPAC as he remains locked in a tight contest against Democrat Abdul El-Sayed.
Rogers was asked during a debate Thursday whether he would welcome public backing from the American Israel Public Affairs Committee — and he pointedly did not rule it out.
“Anybody that wants to help my campaign stop” El-Sayed, he said, “I’ll take all of that help.”
AIPAC’s super PAC, United Democracy Project, uncorked more than $30 million against El-Sayed in Democrats’ bruising primary. El-Sayed turned the deluge into a cudgel, railing against the group’s heavy spending to rally progressives to his side as support for Israel cratered among Democrats amid the war in Gaza.
The group does not appear to have spent on television ads since, according to tracker AdImpact.
The debate moderator asked Rogers about an Axios report from August that said allies of the Republican had asked AIPAC not to advertise on his behalf. The report said the group scrapped a video ad against El-Sayed a day after Rogers spoke with AIPAC board chair Michael Tuchin.
Rogers also reportedly attended fundraisers hosted by AIPAC in California in August.
A representative for UDP declined to comment.
Rogers and El-Sayed clashed over U.S. military aid for Israel in their debate. Rogers said he supports Israel’s “right to defend itself in a very difficult neighborhood,” while El-Sayed said “I don’t want our tax dollars buying weapons for other countries.”
Congress
Mike Johnson voices uncertainty about his future if GOP loses control
House Speaker Mike Johnson suggested that he could leave Congress if Democrats regain control — the farthest he has gone in acknowledging what he would do in a GOP House minority.
“Heaven forbid, if we lose this majority or whatever, I don’t know what my next chapter of life is,” Johnson said in an interview with Fox News posted this week. “If God moves on our hearts and says we should, you know, go back to my hometown of Shreveport and start a lawn business, I’ll do that with equal fervor.”
In the past, the Louisiana Republican has steered clear of the hypothetical.
Johnson also did not rule out a run at minority leader, instead telling Fox News that House Republicans will hold onto the majority and he will stay speaker.
“I’m going to be the speaker in the next Congress,” Johnson said, when asked if he would run. “I’m not going to talk about the scenario where we don’t win the House, because I am laser-focused on winning the House.”
With the midterms less than a month away, Republicans are doing everything they can to salvage their chances of maintaining their majority in an unfavorable political environment.
As some Republicans privately worry about their chances of holding onto the House, many believe jockeying for a GOP minority leader race is already underway.
House Majority Leader Steve Scalise and Judiciary Chair Jim Jordan are potential names floating around to take over. House Whip Tom Emmer (R-Minn.) had also been named as an option, though he could also run to stay as whip.
All three House Republicans have been campaigning across the country in the lead-up to the election. If Republicans lose the House, GOP members will begin the race for minority leader almost immediately when they return to Washington.
Congress
Capitol agenda: GOP ads have yet to overwhelm voters, poll finds
Republicans have a massive campaign cash advantage going into the final stretch before Election Day, but a new Blue Light News poll shows they aren’t yet capturing voters’ attention.
More than 70% of poll respondents who had seen ads said they’d either seen more spots in support of Democrats or an equal amount between the parties over the past week — including ads on television, social media, or any other platform. Only 24% said they’d seen more ads for Republicans.
The numbers are striking considering Republican-aligned groups had triple the amount of cash on hand compared to their Democratic rivals going into the final months of the campaign. That figure includes the $400 million war chest that President Donald Trump’s MAGA Inc. super PAC reported over the summer, for which Dems have no equivalent.
Republicans have been racing to saturate key battlegrounds — and even some deep-red districts and states — with GOP messages in the final weeks before the midterms to counterbalance the favorable political environment for Democrats.
One reason GOP ad dollars could be getting less bang for their buck may lie in ad rates: direct campaign accounts from prolific individual fundraisers — Georgia Sen. Jon Ossoff or Texas Senate candidate James Talarico, for example — can buy ads at cheaper rates.
Timing may be another reason: Trump’s super PAC waited until recent weeks to start buying ads through affiliate groups, when rates were already high close to the election.
“It’s competition that drives [rates] up to these ridiculous amounts, and then when super PACs come in late with these reservations, it’s even more than a two times disadvantage,” Jeff Burton, GOP campaign strategist and president of Maven Advocacy Partners said in an interview.
Burton said Republican candidates will need to rethink spending strategies to catch voters’ attention in the final stretch. Still, having a cash advantage might only take some so far, he said, citing the massive outspending Michigan’s Abdul El-Sayed and Texas’ Ken Paxton overcame in their respective primaries.
“I think you’ll see a lot of these campaigns diversifying, paying for grassroots, paying for different mediums to try to reach voters,” Burton said.
The poll was conducted by surveying U.S. adults online between Oct. 3-5 with PF Global.
What else we’re watching:
— FIRST IN IC: DEMS WANT A GOP APOLOGY TO JACK SMITH — Senate Judiciary Democrats are asking chair Chuck Grassley to issue an apology to former special counsel Jack Smith on behalf of GOP committee members and Sen. Eric Schmitt. A letter from committee Democrats to Republicans, obtained exclusively by Blue Light News also demands Grassley turn over the underlying records Schmitt used last month to levy false allegations against Smith of secretly attending an NBA game in Atlanta to conspire with local prosecutors about convicting Trump.
— HILL LOBBIES FOR UKRAINIANS IN U.S. — Lawmakers afraid the Trump administration will cancel protections for Ukrainian seeking refuge in the U.S. want the president to consider another option: Do nothing. The administration has until Oct. 19 to renew or cancel temporary protected status for more than 100,000 Ukrainians in the U.S. who fled the war still ravaging their country. While a number of lawmakers on both sides of the aisle are hoping Trump will renew the permission, some also support a backup option — letting the status expire without formally canceling it, triggering an automatic six-month extension.
Chris Marquette, Eric Bazail-Eimil and Andrew Howard contributed to this report.
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