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The Dictatorship

Despair and fury in Gaza are fueling a remarkable movement against Hamas

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Despair and fury in Gaza are fueling a remarkable movement against Hamas

After three days of public protests in northern Gaza against Hamasthe organization’s political grip there seems to be fraying. Each of the protests have involved hundreds of Palestinians and they reflect a clear understanding that Hamas, and not just Israelis responsible for their plight. It could be a turning point, but much depends on how outside powers respond.

Public criticism of Hamas in Gaza is hardly, as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu claims, unheard of. Even during the war launched by Israel after the Hamas-led Oct. 7, 2023, attack on southern Israel, smaller and more sporadic protests periodically erupted.

Frustration with Hamas among ordinary Gazans is boiling over.

What differentiates the recent protests is their size and continuity. In the last three days, thousands of Palestinians gathered to urge Hamas to relinquish power, release hostages and help stop Israel’s relentless attacks that the Palestinian Health Ministry reports have cost over 50,000 Palestinian lives (the majority of them civilian). Netanyahu is wrong to cynically and dishonestly cite the protests as evidence that Israel’s policies are “working.” But Hamas is wrong in claiming they are manufactured and directed by “outside forces,” rather than the spontaneous expression of richly deserved outrage.

I have repeatedly opined that Palestinians should never forgive Hamas for deliberately provoking Israel into an extreme overreaction. Israeli policy has always rested on disproportionate retaliation. The intensity of Israel’s violence in Gaza is as predictable as it is appalling. Palestinians understand this intimately.

There’s ample outrage against Israel’s war on Gazan society in general, which is hardly limited to just Hamas. Many scholars and historians on genocide, including a number of Israelishave argued that the word reasonably applies to the Israeli military’s use of food, medicine, water and routine displacement as weapons of war against civilians.

And still, frustration with Hamas among ordinary Gazans is boiling over. The protests are predictably centered in Gaza’s north, the first areas decimated after Oct. 7, and where the most extreme violence and denial of basic necessities have been focused.

Contrary to Netanyahu’s claims, these protests are taking place despite Israel’s ongoing brutality, not because of it. A poll released on Oct. 6, 2023, the eve of the attack against southern Israel, by the Arab Barometerfound just 29% of Palestinians in Gaza had any favorable attitudes toward Hamas. Today, it may be even lower.

The protesters have no illusions about Israel. Virtually all interviewed by Arab and Western media made their fury at Israel’s brutality crystal clear.

Hamas did not care about the fate of the over 2 million Palestinian civilians it conscripted for “martyrdom” without the least consultation, warning or preparation. It also doesn’t much care about the ebb and flow of public opinion. It retains a base of public support, and much of the population will continue to understandably focus their rage against Israel, at least until the IDF is finally gone from Gaza. But despair and fury have fueled these unusually large and sustained protests against Hamas and its evident share of responsibility.

Hamas did not care about the fate of the over 2 million Palestinian civilians it conscripted for ‘martyrdom’ without consultation, warning or preparation.

For outsiders who are sincerely interested in seeing the end of Hamas power in Gaza, these protests represent a significant opportunity. It’s by no means clear Netanyahu is genuinely among them, after decades of consistently ensuring that the Palestinians remain divided between Islamist rule in Gaza and secular nationalist control in the small self-ruled areas of the West Bank. Predictably, he’s doing his best to damage and undermine the credibility of the protests and their political potential by framing them as evidence of the wisdom of Israel’s scorched-earth policy.

However, it behooves constructive-minded Arab states like Egypt, Saudi Arabia and the UAE to cautiously but deliberately do whatever they can to support protest leaders and organizers. They could well provide crucial elements of an alternative Palestinian civic authority in Gaza to assume governance responsibility — instead of both Israeli occupation and Hamas.

Surviving business interests, clan leaders and remaining Fatah cadres in Gaza are surely either intimately connected to the protest movement and its organizers or should become so, no matter how spontaneous the demonstrations have been. There is certainly significant coordination taking place given how large, widespread and sustained they have been.

Israel should remain silent about the protests for its own political purposes and resume the ceasefire. Leading Arab states should step up and take the initiative, and the U.S. and Western countries should recognize that the protests demonstrate that the Egyptian-coordinated Arab League plan for finally halting the madness and initiating reconstruction in Gaza is viable and, indeed, the only real framework that can bring an end to both the war and Hamas rule in Gaza.

The protesters are bravely demonstrating that thousands of patriotic Palestinians in Gaza sincerely want the war (as they typically say, “the genocide”) to end, the remaining Israeli hostages to be released and Hamas to step down.

It’s exactly what Arab states, Western countries and even the Israelis say they want. There is no longer any basis for contending there is nothing to work with practically and politically among the Palestinians of Gaza. Obviously, there’s plenty, if anyone is genuinely interested.

HUSSEIN IBISH

Hussein Ibish is a senior resident scholar at the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington.

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The Dictatorship

Europe says that it holds a lot of trade cards on the eve of Trump’s tariff ‘Liberation Day’

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Europe says that it holds a lot of trade cards on the eve of Trump’s tariff ‘Liberation Day’

BRUSSELS (AP) — A top European Union official warned the U.S. on Tuesday that the world’s biggest trade bloc “holds a lot of cards” when it comes to dealing with the Trump administration’s new tariffs and has a good plan to retaliate if forced to.

U.S. President Donald Trump has promised to roll out taxes on imports from other countries on Wednesday. He says they will free the U.S. from reliance on foreign goods.

He’s vowed to impose “reciprocal” tariffs to match the duties that other countries charge on U.S. products, dubbing April 2 “Liberation Day.”

“Europe has not started this confrontation. We do not necessarily want to retaliate, but if it is necessary, we have a strong plan to retaliate and we will use it,” European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen told EU lawmakers.

The commission, the EU’s executive branch, negotiates trade deals on behalf of the bloc’s 27 member countries and manages trade disputes on their behalf.

“Europe holds a lot of cards, from trade to technology to the size of our market. But this strength is also built on our readiness to take firm counter measures if necessary. All instruments are on the table,” von der Leyen said, at a European Parliament session in Strasbourg, France.

The commission already intends to impose duties on U.S. goods worth some $28 billion in mid-April in response to Trump’s steel and aluminum tariffs. The EU duties will target steel and aluminum products, but also textiles, home appliances and farm goods.

A lot remains unknown about how Trump’s levies will actually be implemented, notably the “reciprocal” tariffs, and the EU wants to assess their impact before taking retaliatory action.

“So many Europeans feel utterly disheartened by the announcement from the United States,” von der Leyen said. “This is the largest and most prosperous trade relationship worldwide. We would all be better off if we could find a constructive solution.”

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The Dictatorship

There’s a new trend in Trump’s meme warfare

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There’s a new trend in Trump’s meme warfare

President Donald Trump’s administration is posting sadistic memes on its social media accounts to prompt the public to cruelly laugh at migrants caught up in his mass deportation obsession. For example, last week, the White House X account exploited a new ChatGPT feature that allows users to transform images “into the style of Studio Ghibli,” the beloved animation studio, and posted a cartoon version of a posted photo of a crying undocumented migrant in handcuffs. The responses to the post were a mix of delight from supporters and horror from critics, and the practice illustrates how Trump knows he must dehumanize migrants  to justify his aggressive and increasingly extralegal efforts to deport them.

Trump couches his messages in seemingly unserious or “comical” aesthetics online to downplay how sinister they are. As I’ve written in the past, Trump uses humor as a weapon, in part by dressing up his violations of norms and degradation of his opponents as a joke.

The White House chose an unsympathetic subject for its Studio Ghibli-style meme — a migrant who reportedly had been deported in the past after pleading guilty to attempted possession with intent to distribute fentanyl. But regardless of what that person did or where one stands on this particular deportation or deportations in general — brandishing people’s pain as a political message is not a  defense of policy. Trump’s propaganda reveals that he delights in the pain of others, and he encourages the public to laugh with him.

Trump’s social media team is making performative sadism a full-fledged comms strategy. In February the White House posted a video of migrants being deported with the text “ASMR: Illegal Alien Deportation Flight.” The “joke” is that the viewer is supposed to find it soothing to hear the sounds of the jangling of handcuffs and chains on migrants and the starting rumble of the plane that will deport them. On Feb. 14, above an image that looked like a valentine with Trump’s and  White House border czar Tom Homan’s heads surrounded by hearts, Trump posted“Roses are red, violets are blue, come here illegally, and we’ll deport you,”

Trump’s friends have struck similar notes. El Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele created a disturbing three-minute propaganda videowhich he released after Trump initially deported alleged Venezuelan gang members to a brutal prison in his country. Operating in a similar emotional register as Trump’s memes, Bukele’s video depicts the brutalization of prisoners as part of an exciting action sequence and revels in an authoritarian aesthetic in its depiction of phalanxes of police officers. It’s easy to see why Trump and Bukele are natural partners on this issue. Each of them takes pleasure in seeing others publicly humiliated.

Trump’s propaganda, which glories in the derision of those he terms “monsters,” is meant to help culturally authorize the extreme and potentially illegal measures he’s taking to deport them. The Trump administration is using flimsy evidencecircumventing due process and exploiting obscure provisions of immigration law to expel as many people as the administration considers socially or politically undesirable as possible. There’s a parallel track between, in the cultural sphere, treating migrants as not fully human and deserving of our derisive laughter and, as official policy, treating them as a class of people who have no rights.

Zeeshan Aleem

Zeeshan Aleem is a writer and editor for BLN Daily. Previously, he worked at Vox, HuffPost and Blue Light News, and he has also been published in, among other places, The New York Times, The Atlantic, The Nation, and The Intercept. You can sign up for his free politics newsletter here.

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DOGE’s ‘one neat trick’ to fix the Social Security Administration is a massive mistake

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DOGE’s ‘one neat trick’ to fix the Social Security Administration is a massive mistake

Elon Musk has turned his attention to the Social Security Administration, the latest agency that his team of novice programmers has invaded for the apparent purpose of hobbling it. Wired magazine reported last week that the Department of Government Efficiency plans to replace the mainframes that power the agency’s mission and rebuild their functionality on new servers in a new programming language — with just a few months’ work.

Assuming Wired’s reporting is accurate, we know that such an effort will surely fail. The track record of decades of modernizations of thousands of software systems, in both the private and public sectors, makes that clear. This isn’t even an interesting-yet-flawed idea. It’s a hackneyed, clichéd bad idea that could only sound compelling to novice software developers. It’s like cooking a Thanksgiving turkey in 20 minutes by putting it in a blast furnace, or choosing to get measles instead of getting vaccinated against it: it sounds most convincing to the layperson who asks the fewest questions.

Critics complain that the COBOL programming language, widely in use in the SSA, is old and outdated. This is wrong.

The SSA delivered $1.3 trillion in benefits to 70 million beneficiaries in 2023, a testament to the quality of its infrastructure. The software that drives the SSA is the most critical part of that infrastructure. Like nearly all state and federal agencies, if the SSA’s specialized software doesn’t work, the agency is dead in the water. And as with other agencies, the SSA’s largest contracts are for the technical infrastructure that undergirds SSA’s missionwith firms such as IBM, Dell and Leidos being paid hundreds of millions of dollars to build and maintain the hardware and software that allow the agency to function. That might sound like a lot of money, but the agency’s overhead is legendarily low: administrative expenses come to just 0.5% of the total cost of the programwell below the overhead of 401(k) programs and most state and local government pensions.

Critics complain that the COBOL programming language, widely in use in the SSA, is old and outdated. This is wrong. While COBOL’s origins date to 1959, it’s an actively maintained programming language, with an updated standard published by the International Standards Organization in 2023. The advanced age of actively maintained languages is evidence of their sustainability and quality. Many “modern” languages are quite old: C is 52 years old, Python is 34 years old, and even JavaScript will turn 30 this year. COBOL remains so widely used in our financial system that 95% of ATM transactions rely on it. There are 220 billion lines of COBOL in use today. Why? Mostly because it’s really good at processing large amounts of business data.

Critics also complain that mainframes are antiquated in an era of cloud computing. In fact, mainframes are still in wide use throughout the public and private sectors. They are not the room-sized reel-to-reel machines of the 1960s, but instead sleek, modern machines that would turn any developer’s head. They excel anywhere that it’s important to have lots of processing power, high redundancy and the ability to muscle through big batches of data processing—precisely what the SSA needs.

Modernizing the SSA’s technical infrastructure is not a novel idea. The agency has continuously modernized its systems since 1982, and published a new digital modernization strategy just last year. That’s because one-time modernizations, at best, succeed only for a brief time. Without ongoing modernization, the infrastructure quickly will become old again. Continuous modernization does not necessarily mean replacing COBOL or moving the whole system off mainframes. It means identifying and prioritizing the most urgent needs of the system’s users and building whatever technical infrastructure is necessary to make that happen. It is entirely possible that COBOL on mainframes is the correct infrastructure for many of the needs of the Social Security Administration.

The important thing about the existing SSA technical infrastructure is that it works! Those 70 million people get their $1.3 trillion in monthly payments, which allow them to pay their rent, buy food, afford medications and give birthday presents to their grandkids. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick’s mother may not worry about getting her check — likely because her son is a billionaire — but to many of those 70 million people, their monthly check is all that’s keeping them housed, clothed and fed.

What could be the legitimate purpose of this incredibly dangerous operation?

If Twitter accidentally goes down for a few hours, nothing terrible happens. But if just one person misses a Social Security payment, that could drop the person off a financial cliff. Replacing the SSA’s core infrastructure with an entirely new system all at once is performing a high-wire act without a net, only it’s not DOGE staffers who risk falling — it’s the Social Security beneficiaries who depend on that social safety net.

Complex systems theoretically reflect a complex set of documented rules — in this case, laws, regulations and policies — but, in practice, there are additional rules that are encoded only in the software, documented nowhere else. To the inexperienced software developer, it can seem self-evident that you can replace an old system with a new one by using the documented, but the experienced software developer knows that’s a trap.

Replacing COBOL is a special challenge, for a reason generally known only to experienced COBOL developers: math works differently in COBOL. It handles decimals unlike any other programming language, which is particularly important for large financial systems working at the scale of the SSA. What COBOL might calculate as 1,000.99, Java might calculate as 1,000.98. Neither number is wrong in a mathematical sense, but for an accounting and payment system designed around decades of COBOL-based math, the Java-based answer is functionally wrong. For a system making 840 million financial transactions annually, such a small difference in math can quickly spiral into a disaster.

Even if we imagine that there was a complete, successful replacement of the COBOL mainframes with a different programming language and different servers, it’s not at all clear that anybody would benefit. The existing systems get the job done. And the mainframes are just for the backend of the system that handles data storage, tracking and accounting. The front end — the parts of the system that the public sees — would be left untouched by such a modernization. If the existing backend functions fine, and the front end doesn’t require modernization, what could be the legitimate purpose of this incredibly dangerous operation?

There are two possible explanations: either the DOGE programmers are so inexperienced and cocksure that they think this can actually work, or this is a cover for doing serious damage to the Social Security system. As a nation, we cannot afford the risk that either of these explanations are right, or the even greater and more likely risk: that both explanations are right.

That the SSA’s systems are old is not evidence of them being problematic — on the contrary, it is evidence of their reliability and sustainability. There is no “one neat trick” that will make a complete overhaul possible in the span of a few months. Hard things are hard. DOGE’s effort is likely to fail and threatens to bring down Social Security along with it.

Waldo Jaquith

Waldo Jaquith was an Obama administration appointee in the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy, a Biden administration appointee at the General Services Administration, and a special government employee at the Treasury Department.

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