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Senate Democrats’ impending choice: Shutdown or surrender

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Senate Democrats have a fast-approaching dilemma: Vote for a spending bill unilaterally drafted by House Republicans or engage in the kind of shutdown brinkmanship they’ve long opposed.

It isn’t a decision they’ll be able to put off for much longer. House GOP leaders are poised early next week to send a bill to the floor that would largely hold current spending levels in place through the end of September. Democrats don’t like this approach, arguing it would only further empower President Donald Trump and Elon Musk to continue to act beyond their authority in clawing back congressionally approved dollars.

In the House, Democrats are vowing to hold back support, arguing that Republicans are responsible for finding the votes for a continuing resolution, or CR, after walking away from negotiations with the minority party.

“If Republicans decide to take that approach, as Speaker [Mike] Johnson indicated it’s his expectation, then Republicans are going it alone,” House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries told reporters Thursday.

It’s not so simple in the Senate, where Democratic leaders are being more careful to avoid promising blanket opposition to a relatively “clean” stopgap bill ahead of the March 14 shutdown deadline. Privately, leaders have urged their members to stay silent and force Republicans to come up with a palatable plan.

Sen. Dick Durbin, the No. 2 Senate Democrat, said in a brief interview Thursday he didn’t sense there were enough Democratic senators yet willing to clear a seven-month stopgap — Republicans need at least eight, assuming more GOP lawmakers don’t join Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky, who has pledged to vote no.

Still, when pressed if he would oppose that bill if it was the only option on the table just hours before the shutdown deadline, Durbin hedged, saying that it was premature until he saw what gets through the House.

“Ask me after that,” he added.

While a handful of Democrats indicated in interviews that they are a no, so far Republicans have at least one Democrat on their side: Sen. John Fetterman of Pennsylvania, who said in a brief interview Thursday that “I’m never going to be a part of any vote that shuts the government down.”

“The fact that anyone on our side would even rattle those sabers, that’s bullshit,” Fetterman said. “To think I’m going to burn the village down to save it, that’s bonkers.”

Roughly a dozen other Senate Democrats declined in interviews this week to say explicitly they would vote against a shutdown-averting bill. Several lawmakers said they want to know for sure that this bill would be the only way to avoid a lapse in federal funding before committing to supporting it. They also said they want to see proof that Speaker Mike Johnson can actually get it through the House.

“There’s enough Senate Republicans who have told us that they support the idea of a short-term CR and completing all the bills,” said Sen. Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.), adding that before he makes a decision on a House bill, “I want to make sure that play is not available.”

Sen. Tim Kaine (D-Va.) described himself as “anti-shutdown” and that Musk’s ascension “makes it even more perilous to shut down” because it would only further embolden him. But Kaine — who, like Van Hollen, has a large share of federal workers in his state — also declined to say how he would vote on a September funding patch if one comes to the Senate floor.

A group of Democrats and Republicans in the Senate have been quietly talking about a back-up option if the House isn’t able to pass its stopgap bill — not an unthinkable scenario, given the GOP’s razor-thin majority. Several of those Democrats emphasized their preference is to pursue a government funding path that gives space to senior appropriators who still insist they’re close to an agreement on updated agency funding levels.

“We’re real close to a deal,” said Sen. Gary Peters (D-Mich.), an Appropriations Committee member. “We should get that done.”

One option being floated by Democrats is a four- to five-week stopgap to give appropriators more time to land that deal. But Republicans involved in the bicameral negotiations warned that they don’t believe their House counterparts are ready to accept anything other than an extension of current funding levels through the end of the fiscal year.

“My best guess right now is that the House will pass or attempt to pass a full-year CR,” Senate Appropriations Chair Susan Collins (R-Maine) told reporters. Asked about the possibility of a shorter stopgap, she added, “I do not think the House is interested in that.”

Mia McCarthy, Lisa Kashinsky, Nicholas Wu and Jennifer Scholtes contributed to this report.

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Congress

Democrats drop $5M into Kansas Senate race

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Senate Democrats’ top super PAC is pushing into Kansas.

The Chuck Schumer-aligned Senate Majority PAC is launching a $5 million statewide television ad blitz starting Saturday through Election Day — the latest sign that Democrats believe the Senate map is shifting onto red turf.

SMP had signaled in recent days it could get involved in the race, telling Blue Light News late last month it was “actively thinking” about whether to wade into the state where Democrats haven’t won a Senate seat in nearly a century but where Adam Hamilton narrowly leads GOP Sen. Roger Marshall in recent polls. Internal SMP polling that found an increasingly competitive race factored into the group’s decision to spend. It will also run digital ads.

“The gap is closing in Kansas,” SMP spokesperson Lauren French said in a statement. “We are committed to ensuring families understand Marshall’s real record of making health care and basic goods more expensive for working Kansans.”

Republicans are scrambling to shore up Marshall. Senate Leadership Fund, a top GOP super PAC aligned with Republican leadership, has booked over $10 million in ads through Election Day in the state, per ad tracking firm AdImpact.

SMP’s first ad attacks Marshall for joining Senate Republicans in voting to table a Democratic-led amendment last year to release the Jeffrey Epstein files. The Senate later approved legislation to release the files by unanimous consent. It’s the latest in a slate of ads from Democrats hitting their Republican rivals over the late, disgraced financier and convicted sex offender. Marshall’s campaign did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Senate Democrats’ plunge into the state comes as the midterm battle map is undergoing a major realignment. Georgia and North Carolina — primed to be two of the cycle’s premiere battlegrounds — are tilting left to the point where national Republicans are retracting spending in both states and Democrats are starting to follow suit, freeing funds on both sides to shift elsewhere.

Republicans are racing to reinforce incumbents across what was once safer red turf. SLF has also pledged $5 million to bolster Sen. Darline Graham in South Carolina.

Democrats, meanwhile, are starting to spend more in red states. SMP has dropped over $2 million on digital ads in Texas. Schumer, the Senate minority leader, has included Kansas and Mississippi in his pitches to donors.

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House Democratic campaign arm says it needs $17 million, and fast

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The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is begging for resources, and setting a hard deadline for donors to give $17 million in order to compete in a handful of districts that Republicans carried easily in 2024.

DCCC Executive Director Julie Merz said the committee needs the cash influx by Oct. 22 in order to “to take advantage of the opportunities we have” outside of the core battlefield, according to a memo shared with donors on Friday and obtained by POLITICO.

If they don’t pony up, Merz warns, the party “could be leaving winnable races on the table.”

Democrats have been clear that they have a fundraising disadvantage this cycle, but they have so far been reluctant to place a specific dollar amount on their needs, making the DCCC’s memo Friday a particularly surprising outlier.

“Here’s the tough reality though: the Republican ecosystem has amassed a massive war chest that is significantly greater than ours and is spending it,” Merz says in the memo after arguing that the members of the committee “remain confident that we will win back the majority in 25 days.”

Specifically, Merz dedicates significant portions of the memo to four districts where the committee is desperate for more money in order to compete — all of which President Donald Trump won by double-digit margins in 2024:

— Florida’s 27th District (Trump +14.6)

— Nevada’s 2nd District (Trump +13.9)

— South Carolina’s 1st District (Trump +13)

— New York’s 21st District (Trump +20.7)

The fundraising disadvantage has created headaches for both House and Senate Democrats over where, exactly, to deploy the resources they do have.

The committee tells donors that their internal polling shows all of those races within reach, but that Republicans’ big cash advantages — especially in the Trump-aligned super PAC MAGA Inc. — will make it harder to win those and other reach seats.

Merz also name drops a handful of other deep-red districts that are “worthy of additional investment in this environment,” including seats held by GOP Reps. French Hill (R-Ark.) and Richard Hudson (R-N.C.), the chair of the Republican National Congressional Committee.

The NRCC was quick to mock the DCCC’s memo.

“No amount of money fixes candidates voters don’t want. These seats are staying red, and Republicans are on offense across the map,” NRCC spokesperson Mike Marinella said in a statement.

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Capitol agenda: How Warren could link arms with Trump’s GOP

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Sen. Elizabeth Warren may get her clearest shot yet to take on corporate America next year — thanks to the once unthinkable help of Republicans.

The Massachusetts Democrat is poised to chair Senate Banking if the party takes back the chamber. And while the progressive has long been a boogeyman to corporate America, lobbyists worry she’ll have powerful backup thanks to the surge of populist Republicans eager to take big swings at Wall Street and Big Tech.

One longtime financial industry lobbyist, granted anonymity to speak candidly, said Warren “has a streak that is not just wanting to be a progressive gadfly, but to actually reach across the aisle to push for policy ideas.” There is “absolutely” reason for concern, the person said.

Atop the panel, Warren would also have a strong position to shape the 2028 presidential debates on both sides.

“There’s very little doubt that the agenda of the Senate Banking Committee is going to overlap substantially with the core issues that the candidates in the 2028 election cycle are going to be grappling with,” said Dennis Kelleher, the outgoing leader of the progressive group Better Markets.

As Banking chair, Warren is expected to try to recruit Republicans in a crackdown on artificial intelligence — specifically restrictions on chip giant Nvidia’s exports to China, which already has some GOP support — and a follow-up of this year’s bipartisan housing law that sought to rein in private equity’s role in the market, according to people close to the senator.

Some of President Donald Trump’s own populist ideas, like credit card interest rate caps and limits on stock buybacks for defense contractors, would provide fertile ground for Warren.

But Trump would also likely be Warren’s biggest obstacle, as he’s been resistant to embrace policy overlaps with her. He’s also been resistant to any AI restrictions.

Warren’s approach also threatens to expose rifts between GOP populists who have been ascendent under Trump and more mainstream conservatives.

Asked about the possibility of a Chair Warren, Sen. Mike Rounds, a more moderate South Dakota Republican, said he doesn’t “think anything would get done except lots of investigations and lots of accusations.”

What else we’re watching: 

— LAWMAKERS CLAMOR FOR GAO v. TRUMP — Lawmakers are desperate for a government watchdog to step up and help them in their fight against the Trump administration over control of federal cash. The independent Government Accountability Office concluded earlier this week that the White House illegally withheld more than $1 billion for education and health care research programs — the latest in more than a half-dozen such findings GAO has published since the start of Trump’s second term. But the agency has yet to use its unique power to take the president to court to challenge those “impoundments,” and lawmakers who are tired of the administration running roughshod over their funding prerogatives want GAO to act.

 

— MURPHY’S DEFENSE FUNDING ULTIMATUM — Democrats should not approve Pentagon funding or the annual defense policy bill if they control Congress next year unless those bills would hasten the end of the Iran war, Sen. Chris Murphy told reporters Thursday. “We should make the end of the war a priority,” said the Foreign Relations Democrat who was returning from a trip to Saudi Arabia and Qatar. Murphy also accused Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and officials of attempting a “cover-up” of the war’s damage and obscuring its true cost after he was denied entry on a base in Qatar. Given the damage to bases in the region, Murphy also told reporters that the U.S. should “reconsider its footprint” in the Middle East.

Jasper Goodman, Jennifer Scholtes and Connor O’Brien contributed to this report.

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