Congress
Warren Davidson is the latest Republican to oppose the House budget
Rep. Warren Davidson of Ohio on Tuesday became the latest Republican to oppose Speaker Mike Johnson‘s budget plan, further imperiling the House GOP’s plans for President Donald Trump’s sweeping domestic policy agenda.
Johnson can afford minimal defections, and Davidson joins Reps. Thomas Massie of Kentucky and Victoria Spartz of Indiana in publicly opposing the fiscal blueprint GOP leaders want to pass Tuesday evening. Rep. Tim Burchett of Tennessee has also said he is leaning against supporting it.
“They convinced me in there — I’m a no,” Massie said as he left a closed-door meeting of House Republicans on Tuesday.
Davidson said he was particularly frustrated with how GOP leaders were handling the impending March 14 government funding deadline.
“I’m not voting for that” without getting more details on Johnson’s plans for appropriations legislation, he said.
But Johnson’s more immediate task is moving the budget resolution, which is a necessary first step in passing the border security, tax and energy policies that Trump campaigned on.
Aside from the fiscal hawks, a separate group of more moderate Republicans is concerned about the scale of the Medicaid cuts implied by the budget plan, although some of them said Monday night they were more inclined to support Johnson after a presentation from House leaders.
Davidson is among a small group of conservative hard-liners who have grown increasingly furious as GOP leaders have pressed Republicans to support the budget plan without sharing more details about the plan for the government funding deadline that is now just over two weeks away.
Davidson left open the possibility that he may support a key procedural vote this afternoon that would set up a final budget vote. But he made clear to reporters Tuesday morning that he would oppose the resolution on the floor if he didn’t hear more from leaders about appropriations; he is pushing for additional cuts in agency spending in that separate legislation.
House Appropriations Chair Tom Cole (R-Okla.) offered inside the meeting to talk through funding questions with Davidson, according to people present.
Johnson faces some bleak arithmetic: No Democrats are expected to back the budget plan, and if all members are present and voting, he can lose only one Republican and still approve it.
House Majority Leader Steve Scalise in an interview did not rule out delaying a planned 6 p.m. vote as they “keep talking” with holdouts. The chamber’s GOP leaders don’t want to put the budget measure on the floor if it appears like it will fail, given Senate Republicans’ eagerness to jump in and push their own competing Plan B.
Scalise and Johnson might get some help: While Democratic leaders have urged their members to show up and vote to maximize the pressure on the GOP, several Democrats could be absent tonight.
Rep. Brittany Pettersen (D-Colo.) recently gave birth, and Rep. Raúl Grijalva (D-Ariz.) has been frequently missing votes as he undergoes cancer treatments. Rep. Kevin Mullin (D-Calif.) could also be absent after complications from knee surgery.
Congress
Mike Rogers opens the door for AIPAC support in Michigan Senate race
Michigan GOP Senate nominee Mike Rogers signaled he would accept support from AIPAC as he remains locked in a tight contest against Democrat Abdul El-Sayed.
Rogers was asked during a debate Thursday whether he would welcome public backing from the American Israel Public Affairs Committee — and he pointedly did not rule it out.
“Anybody that wants to help my campaign stop” El-Sayed, he said, “I’ll take all of that help.”
AIPAC’s super PAC, United Democracy Project, uncorked more than $30 million against El-Sayed in Democrats’ bruising primary. El-Sayed turned the deluge into a cudgel, railing against the group’s heavy spending to rally progressives to his side as support for Israel cratered among Democrats amid the war in Gaza.
The group does not appear to have spent on television ads since, according to tracker AdImpact.
The debate moderator asked Rogers about an Axios report from August that said allies of the Republican had asked AIPAC not to advertise on his behalf. The report said the group scrapped a video ad against El-Sayed a day after Rogers spoke with AIPAC board chair Michael Tuchin.
Rogers also reportedly attended fundraisers hosted by AIPAC in California in August.
A representative for UDP declined to comment.
Rogers and El-Sayed clashed over U.S. military aid for Israel in their debate. Rogers said he supports Israel’s “right to defend itself in a very difficult neighborhood,” while El-Sayed said “I don’t want our tax dollars buying weapons for other countries.”
Congress
Mike Johnson voices uncertainty about his future if GOP loses control
House Speaker Mike Johnson suggested that he could leave Congress if Democrats regain control — the farthest he has gone in acknowledging what he would do in a GOP House minority.
“Heaven forbid, if we lose this majority or whatever, I don’t know what my next chapter of life is,” Johnson said in an interview with Fox News posted this week. “If God moves on our hearts and says we should, you know, go back to my hometown of Shreveport and start a lawn business, I’ll do that with equal fervor.”
In the past, the Louisiana Republican has steered clear of the hypothetical.
Johnson also did not rule out a run at minority leader, instead telling Fox News that House Republicans will hold onto the majority and he will stay speaker.
“I’m going to be the speaker in the next Congress,” Johnson said, when asked if he would run. “I’m not going to talk about the scenario where we don’t win the House, because I am laser-focused on winning the House.”
With the midterms less than a month away, Republicans are doing everything they can to salvage their chances of maintaining their majority in an unfavorable political environment.
As some Republicans privately worry about their chances of holding onto the House, many believe jockeying for a GOP minority leader race is already underway.
House Majority Leader Steve Scalise and Judiciary Chair Jim Jordan are potential names floating around to take over. House Whip Tom Emmer (R-Minn.) had also been named as an option, though he could also run to stay as whip.
All three House Republicans have been campaigning across the country in the lead-up to the election. If Republicans lose the House, GOP members will begin the race for minority leader almost immediately when they return to Washington.
Congress
Capitol agenda: GOP ads have yet to overwhelm voters, poll finds
Republicans have a massive campaign cash advantage going into the final stretch before Election Day, but a new Blue Light News poll shows they aren’t yet capturing voters’ attention.
More than 70% of poll respondents who had seen ads said they’d either seen more spots in support of Democrats or an equal amount between the parties over the past week — including ads on television, social media, or any other platform. Only 24% said they’d seen more ads for Republicans.
The numbers are striking considering Republican-aligned groups had triple the amount of cash on hand compared to their Democratic rivals going into the final months of the campaign. That figure includes the $400 million war chest that President Donald Trump’s MAGA Inc. super PAC reported over the summer, for which Dems have no equivalent.
Republicans have been racing to saturate key battlegrounds — and even some deep-red districts and states — with GOP messages in the final weeks before the midterms to counterbalance the favorable political environment for Democrats.
One reason GOP ad dollars could be getting less bang for their buck may lie in ad rates: direct campaign accounts from prolific individual fundraisers — Georgia Sen. Jon Ossoff or Texas Senate candidate James Talarico, for example — can buy ads at cheaper rates.
Timing may be another reason: Trump’s super PAC waited until recent weeks to start buying ads through affiliate groups, when rates were already high close to the election.
“It’s competition that drives [rates] up to these ridiculous amounts, and then when super PACs come in late with these reservations, it’s even more than a two times disadvantage,” Jeff Burton, GOP campaign strategist and president of Maven Advocacy Partners said in an interview.
Burton said Republican candidates will need to rethink spending strategies to catch voters’ attention in the final stretch. Still, having a cash advantage might only take some so far, he said, citing the massive outspending Michigan’s Abdul El-Sayed and Texas’ Ken Paxton overcame in their respective primaries.
“I think you’ll see a lot of these campaigns diversifying, paying for grassroots, paying for different mediums to try to reach voters,” Burton said.
The poll was conducted by surveying U.S. adults online between Oct. 3-5 with PF Global.
What else we’re watching:
— FIRST IN IC: DEMS WANT A GOP APOLOGY TO JACK SMITH — Senate Judiciary Democrats are asking chair Chuck Grassley to issue an apology to former special counsel Jack Smith on behalf of GOP committee members and Sen. Eric Schmitt. A letter from committee Democrats to Republicans, obtained exclusively by Blue Light News also demands Grassley turn over the underlying records Schmitt used last month to levy false allegations against Smith of secretly attending an NBA game in Atlanta to conspire with local prosecutors about convicting Trump.
— HILL LOBBIES FOR UKRAINIANS IN U.S. — Lawmakers afraid the Trump administration will cancel protections for Ukrainian seeking refuge in the U.S. want the president to consider another option: Do nothing. The administration has until Oct. 19 to renew or cancel temporary protected status for more than 100,000 Ukrainians in the U.S. who fled the war still ravaging their country. While a number of lawmakers on both sides of the aisle are hoping Trump will renew the permission, some also support a backup option — letting the status expire without formally canceling it, triggering an automatic six-month extension.
Chris Marquette, Eric Bazail-Eimil and Andrew Howard contributed to this report.
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