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Who to watch as Johnson’s speakership hangs in the balance

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Mike Johnson can likely only afford to lose a single GOP vote if he wants to remain speaker. He’s already got one Republican promising to oppose him, and about a dozen more who won’t commit to backing him.

Many of those publicly undecided lawmakers have indicated they won’t reveal how they plan to vote ahead of time so, for now, it’s impossible to predict if Johnson can succeed. And while Speaker Mike Johnson said Thursday that it was his “plan” to win on the first ballot that will commence shortly after noon on Friday, even his allies are telegraphing that it might take a few votes before he clinches it.

The House is starting the 119th Congress with effectively a 219-215 GOP-led chamber, assuming former Rep. Matt Gaetz doesn’t participate. Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.) has already said he’ll vote against Johnson. There are several undecided members who will be called before him in the alphabetical roll call, giving early indications if the speaker fight will drag out or be settled quickly. And remember, Democrats are expecting full attendance and have no desire to throw Johnson a lifeline.

The speaker has indicated he’s working with conservative members who have demanded concessions in exchange for their support.

“People are talking through process changes they want, and those kinds of things, and I’m open to that,” Johnson said Thursday after meeting with a number of the holdouts.

Here’s who else to watch:

Rep. Victoria Spartz: Long-considered one of the most unpredictable Republican members, the Indiana Republican made waves in mid-December by saying she’d forswear committee assignments and GOP conference meetings.

“I would like to hear from him, how he’s going to be delivering this agenda and what plan he has, and he hasn’t been doing it,” Spartz said Monday on “Fox and Friends.” Remember, Spartz is the same member who announced she’d step aside from Congress before reconsidering and changing course in February 2024. She’s also publicly said she would vote against several pieces of legislation and then changed her mind at the last minute.

Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas): The Texas conservative has been unbowed even as Donald Trump has threatened to primary him. “I remain undecided, as do a number of my colleagues because we saw so many of the failures last year that we are concerned might limit or inhibit our ability to advance the president’s agenda,” Roy said Tuesday on Fox Business’ “Varney & Co.” He’s floated GOP Reps. Byron Donalds (Fla.) and Jim Jordan (Ohio) as possible alternatives, though neither man is expected to have the votes.

Rep. Andy Biggs: The earliest warning sign for Johnson may be how the Arizona conservative votes on the speakership question. The former House Freedom Caucus chair is early in the alphabet and has recently said he is undecided on Johnson’s future.

Rep. Tim Burchett: The chatty Tennessee Republican has also been noncommittal about backing Johnson for speaker, though he predicted Johnson would ultimately have the votes to continue leading the House. “I think that the die has been cast pretty much. But as I stated, I will make up my mind on Friday,” Burchett said on Fox News’ “Your World” on Monday. He’ll come shortly after Biggs, so watch for early signs of a rebellion.

Rep. Lauren Boebert: The Colorado firebrand has been non-committal ahead of the vote, but said notably last May that “it makes no difference to me if it’s Hakeem Jeffries as speaker or Mike Johnson.” Johnson endorsed Boebert as she switched districts across her state last year.

Rep. Ralph Norman: The South Carolina conservative, like Roy and Massie, was a member of the powerful Rules Committee last Congress but has been noticeably reserved on whether he’d support Johnson for another term, but has questioned who else could get it. “Who would want the job?” he asked POLITICO.

House Freedom Caucus hardliners: Led by Freedom Caucus Chair Andy Harris (R-Md.), other members of the ultra-conservative bloc haven’t been willing to tip their hands on whether they’ll support Johnson on the floor. Other Republicans in this group include Reps. Scott Perry (Pa.), Eli Crane (Ariz.), Eric Burlison (Mo.), Michael Cloud (Texas) and Andrew Clyde (Ga.).

Democratic attendance: Perhaps the greatest X factor for the vote is whether Democrats can deliver on their confident projections of full attendance. It would require the return of members like Rep. Dwight Evans (Pa.), out since July following what his office called a “minor” stroke; former Speaker Nancy Pelosi (Calif.), who is recovering from hip replacement surgery; and members like Reps. Raul Grijalva (Ariz.) and Gerry Connolly (Va.), recovering from or in the midst of cancer treatment.

It seems unlikely any Democrats would step in to save Johnson from GOP hardliner defections as they pledged to do last spring. Even the most conservative members of the conference — think Reps. Jared Golden (Maine) and Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (Wash.) — voted for Hakeem Jeffries during last session’s protracted speaker fight, staying united against former Speaker Kevin McCarthy on all 15 ballots.

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Thune is ‘hopeful’ Mitch McConnell will return this week

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Senate Majority Leader John Thune said Monday he hopes his predecessor as top Republican, Mitch McConnell, returns this week from a hospitalization.

Thune said he had not yet spoken directly with the 84-year-old Kentuckian but is getting “readouts from his staff.”

Asked about McConnell’s condition or if he knew if he would be back this week, Thune told reporters, “I’m hopeful that he’ll be back this week.”

A McConnell spokesperson said Sunday that he had been admitted to the hospital but did not provide details on his condition or why he was hospitalized — a break from recent prior instances where the seven-term senator was hospitalized.

A former McConnell staffer who spoke on the condition of anonymity was told the senator was doing much better Monday without any further details on what put him in the hospital.

Daniel Desrochers contributed to this report.

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Senate to confirm Jay Clayton as soon as Thursday

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The Senate could vote as soon as Thursday on Jay Clayton’s nomination to serve as director of national intelligence — a lightning speed pace that will necessitate buy-in from all 100 senators.

Confirming Clayton could help shore up enough votes from Democrats to extend a government surveillance program that expired last Friday over opposition to Trump’s pick for acting director, Bill Pulte.

“He will come out of the committee Thursday, at least hopefully, and then if we get consent, we can move,” Senate Majority Leader John Thune said in an interview Monday about Clayton, who Trump only nominated for the job late last week.

Democrats “ought to be happy with Clayton,” said Thune, adding that he’s a “good” and “solid” pick.

Sen. Mark Warner of Virginia, the top Democrat on the Senate Intelligence Committee, floated Sunday to CBS News that Clayton could be confirmed this week if every senator cooperates.

Senate Intelligence will hold a hearing Wednesday on Clayton’s nomination. If every member of the panel agrees, he could then get a committee vote Thursday. Confirming Clayton on the Senate floor hours later would require getting agreement from every senator to speed up the process. Opposition from a single member will punt Clayton’s confirmation to next week.

Confirming Clayton Thursday would, crucially, limit — and potentially circumvent — Pulte from becoming acting director of national intelligence, which Trump has slated to take place Friday, June 19.

The president’s decision to put Pulte in charge after Tulsi Gabbard’s departure at the helm of the Office of National Intelligence sparked bipartisan pushback, with Democrats saying they will withhold support for extending Section 702 of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act while Pulte is in the acting role. Congress allowed the key government spy authority lapse last Friday without a deal.

Trump threw another curveball into a FISA extension over the weekend when he posted on social media that he was against reauthorizing Section 702 unless a GOP elections bill is attached. That bill, known as the SAVE America Act, does not have the votes to get through Congress.

Thune threw cold water Monday on tying the two issues together.

“Yeah, he’s, as you know, passionate about getting that done and wants to use every opportunity to take a shot at it,” Thune said of Trump and his desire to enact the elections bill.

But, Thune said, “we can’t get FISA done” if the policies are linked.

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Senate eyes vote on updated housing affordability legislation

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Senate Majority Leader John Thune is planning to put an updated version of a bipartisan housing affordability bill on the Senate floor for a vote this week, according to two people familiar with the bill dynamics and two Senate Democratic aides granted anonymity to discuss ongoing plans.

The version of the 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act that the Senate will vote on will include most of the House-passed language, including a provision restricting large institutional investors from buying single-family homes. The legislation would also add back Senate bills that were dropped from the House package that passed last month, the two people and the two aides said.

The Senate legislation comes after talks between Thune, Senate Banking Chair Tim Scott (R-S.C.) and ranking member Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.). The updated Senate package was also discussed with the House and the White House, the aides said.

Still, it’s unclear if House leadership and the White House have signed off on the legislation.

The Senate and House have gone back and forth for months on language for a housing affordability bill as lawmakers on both sides look for a win to tout during a midterm election season dominated by cost-of-living issues.

Both chambers overwhelmingly passed their own versions of the housing bill — the Senate 89-10 in March, and the House 396-13 in May. The White House supported the Senate-passed bill and then backed the House-passed bill after it retained most of the Senate’s language on reining in private equity and other large Wall Street investors in the housing market — a top priority for President Donald Trump.

The Senate’s updated legislation would remove two of the House’s community banking deregulation bills due to budget scoring concerns, said two of the people familiar: two bills that would modify the Federal Deposit Insurance Act around failed insured depository institutions. The Senate bill also added back a provision to authorize the Community Development Block Grant Disaster Recovery program for seven years, as opposed to a permanent reauthorization in the Senate’s March legislation.

The Senate additionally re-inserted several upper-chamber priorities, including the BUILD NOW Act, which would incentivize communities to build more housing through the Community Development Block Grant program; the Rental Assistance Demonstration bill, which would raise the cap on housing authorities to convert voucher-based assistance; the Moving to Work bill, which would aim to add a new cohort of MTW public housing agencies; and the VALID Act, which would require Federal Housing Administration mortgage disclosures to include cost comparison information for veterans.

The package retains core wins for the leaders of both the Senate Banking and House Financial Services committees and their members and reflects input from all four leaders of those panels, one of the people familiar said.

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