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Who to watch as Johnson’s speakership hangs in the balance

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Mike Johnson can likely only afford to lose a single GOP vote if he wants to remain speaker. He’s already got one Republican promising to oppose him, and about a dozen more who won’t commit to backing him.

Many of those publicly undecided lawmakers have indicated they won’t reveal how they plan to vote ahead of time so, for now, it’s impossible to predict if Johnson can succeed. And while Speaker Mike Johnson said Thursday that it was his “plan” to win on the first ballot that will commence shortly after noon on Friday, even his allies are telegraphing that it might take a few votes before he clinches it.

The House is starting the 119th Congress with effectively a 219-215 GOP-led chamber, assuming former Rep. Matt Gaetz doesn’t participate. Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.) has already said he’ll vote against Johnson. There are several undecided members who will be called before him in the alphabetical roll call, giving early indications if the speaker fight will drag out or be settled quickly. And remember, Democrats are expecting full attendance and have no desire to throw Johnson a lifeline.

The speaker has indicated he’s working with conservative members who have demanded concessions in exchange for their support.

“People are talking through process changes they want, and those kinds of things, and I’m open to that,” Johnson said Thursday after meeting with a number of the holdouts.

Here’s who else to watch:

Rep. Victoria Spartz: Long-considered one of the most unpredictable Republican members, the Indiana Republican made waves in mid-December by saying she’d forswear committee assignments and GOP conference meetings.

“I would like to hear from him, how he’s going to be delivering this agenda and what plan he has, and he hasn’t been doing it,” Spartz said Monday on “Fox and Friends.” Remember, Spartz is the same member who announced she’d step aside from Congress before reconsidering and changing course in February 2024. She’s also publicly said she would vote against several pieces of legislation and then changed her mind at the last minute.

Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas): The Texas conservative has been unbowed even as Donald Trump has threatened to primary him. “I remain undecided, as do a number of my colleagues because we saw so many of the failures last year that we are concerned might limit or inhibit our ability to advance the president’s agenda,” Roy said Tuesday on Fox Business’ “Varney & Co.” He’s floated GOP Reps. Byron Donalds (Fla.) and Jim Jordan (Ohio) as possible alternatives, though neither man is expected to have the votes.

Rep. Andy Biggs: The earliest warning sign for Johnson may be how the Arizona conservative votes on the speakership question. The former House Freedom Caucus chair is early in the alphabet and has recently said he is undecided on Johnson’s future.

Rep. Tim Burchett: The chatty Tennessee Republican has also been noncommittal about backing Johnson for speaker, though he predicted Johnson would ultimately have the votes to continue leading the House. “I think that the die has been cast pretty much. But as I stated, I will make up my mind on Friday,” Burchett said on Fox News’ “Your World” on Monday. He’ll come shortly after Biggs, so watch for early signs of a rebellion.

Rep. Lauren Boebert: The Colorado firebrand has been non-committal ahead of the vote, but said notably last May that “it makes no difference to me if it’s Hakeem Jeffries as speaker or Mike Johnson.” Johnson endorsed Boebert as she switched districts across her state last year.

Rep. Ralph Norman: The South Carolina conservative, like Roy and Massie, was a member of the powerful Rules Committee last Congress but has been noticeably reserved on whether he’d support Johnson for another term, but has questioned who else could get it. “Who would want the job?” he asked POLITICO.

House Freedom Caucus hardliners: Led by Freedom Caucus Chair Andy Harris (R-Md.), other members of the ultra-conservative bloc haven’t been willing to tip their hands on whether they’ll support Johnson on the floor. Other Republicans in this group include Reps. Scott Perry (Pa.), Eli Crane (Ariz.), Eric Burlison (Mo.), Michael Cloud (Texas) and Andrew Clyde (Ga.).

Democratic attendance: Perhaps the greatest X factor for the vote is whether Democrats can deliver on their confident projections of full attendance. It would require the return of members like Rep. Dwight Evans (Pa.), out since July following what his office called a “minor” stroke; former Speaker Nancy Pelosi (Calif.), who is recovering from hip replacement surgery; and members like Reps. Raul Grijalva (Ariz.) and Gerry Connolly (Va.), recovering from or in the midst of cancer treatment.

It seems unlikely any Democrats would step in to save Johnson from GOP hardliner defections as they pledged to do last spring. Even the most conservative members of the conference — think Reps. Jared Golden (Maine) and Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (Wash.) — voted for Hakeem Jeffries during last session’s protracted speaker fight, staying united against former Speaker Kevin McCarthy on all 15 ballots.

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Capitol agenda: The Senate’s fly-out agenda takes shape

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Senate Republicans are prepping a jam-packed — if somewhat optimistic — agenda for their final week before summer recess.

Majority Leader John Thune wants to move stopgap funding through Dec. 11, bipartisan Russia sanctions legislation and a bloc of nominees — perhaps including attorney general pick Todd Blanche.

He’s also under pressure from President Donald Trump, administration officials and many of his GOP colleagues to adopt a budget resolution — the first step in unlocking another party-line spending bill.

Leaders are prioritizing the stopgap, though. Appropriations Chair Susan Collins (R-Maine) expects continuing resolution text to be unveiled later today, she told reporters Thursday, and an initial vote is expected Monday evening.

Still TBD: Collins wants to use the funding patch to block the Trump administration from putting political appointees in charge of approving grants — a demand Democratic senators are also making.

The decision is in Thune’s hands. He acknowledged a “handful of issues” are still under consideration with the CR, and said he’s “hoping both sides can come together and figure” them out.

As for the sanctions bill, leaders of both parties are still trying to work out a deal to fast-track the legislation amid concerns from some Democrats and Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) that it gives Trump too much tariff power.

In addition to the nominees package, Thune also hasn’t ruled out an initial vote on the landmark cryptocurrency bill both parties have spent months negotiating or teeing up a bipartisan college sports overhaul now in final stages of talks.

But the big question is whether Republicans can take a major step toward another reconciliation bill by advancing a budget resolution.

Thune met Thursday with Budget Chair Ron Johnson (R-Wis.), who said he was “optimistic in terms of how things are kind of coming together.”

Republicans anticipate giving a number of Senate committees instructions for the bill, setting up a lengthy and politically painful process ahead of adoption despite pushes for urgency from the White House.

Trump’s chief of staff, Susie Wiles, was the latest official to head to Capitol Hill to try and light a fire under top Republicans. But GOP senators don’t necessarily see the urgency.

“The hard part is the president wants to be able to move fast, like an executive can move, and we’re a legislative branch,” said Sen. James Lankford (R-Okla.). “It doesn’t move that fast.”

What else we’re watching: 

— BLANCHE TEETERING: Todd Blanche’s nomination as attorney general isn’t dead yet. But it’s certainly on life support. The acting AG met with Cornyn and Tillis Thursday at NRSC headquarters, and one person familiar with the discussion said the group was “working collaboratively now.” But it would now be difficult to confirm him before August recess under Senate rules.

— FARM BILL TEXT:  Senate Agriculture Chair John Boozman said his farm bill legislative text — originally expected Thursday — could come Friday or Saturday. The bill, which is expected to include language allowing year-round E15 sales and a potential compromise on postponing GOP-led cuts to the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, is set to be marked up Thursday.

Jordain Carney and Grace Yarrow contributed to this report.

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Former MLB star Mark Teixeira to hit campaign trail with GOP leaders

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House GOP leaders are planning to bring former MLB star Mark Teixeira, one of their top candidate recruits this cycle, out on the trail in battleground districts over the summer recess sprint.

Majority Leader Steve Scalise will host a fundraiser with Teixeira in New York City on Aug. 20 with Speaker Mike Johnson as a special guest, according to three people with direct knowledge of the event, granted anonymity to discuss plans that have not yet been made public.

It’s part of a New York swing where Teixeira and Johnson will also hit nearby stops in GOP Rep. Mike Lawler’s 17th Congressional District and for Mike LiPetri, who is trying to unseat Democratic Rep. Tom Suozzi in New York’s 3rd Congressional District.

Teixeira is running to replace GOP Rep. Chip Roy in Texas’ 21st Congressional District. He won a World Series title with the Yankees in 2009 and also played for the Texas Rangers, Atlanta Braves and Los Angeles Angels before retiring from professional baseball in 2016 after 14 seasons.

Because Teixeira has little chance of losing in the deep-red seat, Republican leaders are hoping to harness his star power to boost their candidates in the most competitive races. They’re planning for Teixeira to help campaign in a wider swath of battleground districts in August and through November, including likely stops in Pennsylvania and Georgia.

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Faced with Blanche dilemma, Trump chooses revenge

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President Donald Trump has a choice: allow changes to a controversial court settlement and secure the confirmation of his former personal lawyer as attorney general, or thumb his nose at a pair of his few remaining Republican critics in Congress.

True to form, he is giving no ground — so far.

Trump’s decision Thursday to signal he would rather pull the nomination of Todd Blanche, his pick to lead the Justice Department, rather than give in to the demands of Sens. John Cornyn and Thom Tillis demonstrated that the president’s desire to thwart his enemies does not end with the demise of their political careers.

Both Republican senators will leave Congress at the end of the year after running afoul of Trump, and both have found a degree of independence since becoming untethered from needing to keep in his good graces.

But their efforts to exert leverage and seek to curtail a controversial settlement agreement reached in May between Trump and the IRS only prompted the president to double down. He announced in a Truth Social post that Blanche would remain as acting attorney general “in any event” and that he would potentially withdraw and resubmit the nomination “after Cornyn and Tillis are out of office” in January.

Tillis, who announced he would not seek reelection last year after clashing with Trump over Medicaid cuts in his home state of North Carolina, betrayed little surprise when asked about Trump’s reticence to bargain over the IRS settlement.

“Look up the definition of recalcitrant,” he said.

Cornyn, who lost his bid for renomination to a fifth term representing Texas in May after Trump endorsed a scandal-prone opponent, brushed off the accusation that he was simply seeking revenge by blocking Blanche.

He called Trump’s claim “a convenient excuse, but it’s certainly not true.” And he warned the president that trying to wait him out would be a “gamble.”

“After the midterms, who knows who’s going to be the next United States senator from North Carolina or Texas?” he said.

The subtext of Cornyn’s remark was that Republicans might have a smaller majority if they have one at all — raising the question that if Trump can’t strike a deal with members of his own party to advance his prized nominee, what will governing with Democrats possibly look like?

One of Trump’s frequent Democratic sparring partners from his first term in office — Sen. Adam Schiff of California — said the pressure from Cornyn and Tillis is only a hint of what is to come and that the president should get used to “a restoration of checks and balances.”

“I would hope what it will mean both for the remainder of this Congress and the next is that Congress will once again assume the role of being a counterbalance to the power of the executive,” said Schiff, who led Democrats’ first Trump impeachment attempt. “We largely reneged on that.”

The battle of Blanche has been especially pitched given Trump’s personal interests. Not only did Blanche represent Trump in multiple cases brought in the years before the president’s reelection, Cornyn and Tillis were seeking to curtail a deal that personally benefited him.

Both men sought to ensure a $1.8 billion “anti-weaponization fund” set out in the agreement text could not be revived and to restrict the terms of an audit immunity agreement applying to Trump, his family and business.

It’s possible a deal could still be reached. Cornyn and Tillis met with Blanche Thursday afternoon after Trump issued his ultimatum. One person granted anonymity to describe the private meeting said the two sides were “working collaboratively now” and that it was good “they were finally all face to face.”

Ahead of the meeting, both senators insinuated that the White House — not Blanche — was the obstacle to revising the settlement and moving forward with the confirmation. Cornyn explicitly blamed Trump, while Tillis said the presidents’ advisers could be to blame.

“They’re making this a lot harder than it needs to be,” Cornyn said Wednesday. “We’ve tried to make it easy for them, and they simply refuse to take our help.”

Both said they believed there was a desire in Trump’s orbit to resurrect the payout fund at some point to direct federal settlements to the president’s political allies.

GOP colleagues also chalked up Thursday’s drama to the White House not wanting to give in — whether to protect the original settlement agreement or to deny Trump’s critics a victory.“Clearly, the White House does not want to do what Senator Cornyn and Senator Tillis were asking,” said Sen. John Kennedy of Louisiana.

Sen. Lisa Murkowski of Alaska said she shared Cornyn and Tillis’ qualms about the settlement and asked Blanche in her own private meeting to put his oral commitments in writing.

“I have expressed the same concerns, and I am waiting for the same answers,” said Murkowski, an occasional Trump critic who is up for reelection in 2028.

Jennifer Scholtes contributed to this report.

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