Congress
Who to watch as Johnson’s speakership hangs in the balance
Mike Johnson can likely only afford to lose a single GOP vote if he wants to remain speaker. He’s already got one Republican promising to oppose him, and about a dozen more who won’t commit to backing him.
Many of those publicly undecided lawmakers have indicated they won’t reveal how they plan to vote ahead of time so, for now, it’s impossible to predict if Johnson can succeed. And while Speaker Mike Johnson said Thursday that it was his “plan” to win on the first ballot that will commence shortly after noon on Friday, even his allies are telegraphing that it might take a few votes before he clinches it.
The House is starting the 119th Congress with effectively a 219-215 GOP-led chamber, assuming former Rep. Matt Gaetz doesn’t participate. Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.) has already said he’ll vote against Johnson. There are several undecided members who will be called before him in the alphabetical roll call, giving early indications if the speaker fight will drag out or be settled quickly. And remember, Democrats are expecting full attendance and have no desire to throw Johnson a lifeline.
The speaker has indicated he’s working with conservative members who have demanded concessions in exchange for their support.
“People are talking through process changes they want, and those kinds of things, and I’m open to that,” Johnson said Thursday after meeting with a number of the holdouts.
Here’s who else to watch:
Rep. Victoria Spartz: Long-considered one of the most unpredictable Republican members, the Indiana Republican made waves in mid-December by saying she’d forswear committee assignments and GOP conference meetings.
“I would like to hear from him, how he’s going to be delivering this agenda and what plan he has, and he hasn’t been doing it,” Spartz said Monday on “Fox and Friends.” Remember, Spartz is the same member who announced she’d step aside from Congress before reconsidering and changing course in February 2024. She’s also publicly said she would vote against several pieces of legislation and then changed her mind at the last minute.
Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas): The Texas conservative has been unbowed even as Donald Trump has threatened to primary him. “I remain undecided, as do a number of my colleagues because we saw so many of the failures last year that we are concerned might limit or inhibit our ability to advance the president’s agenda,” Roy said Tuesday on Fox Business’ “Varney & Co.” He’s floated GOP Reps. Byron Donalds (Fla.) and Jim Jordan (Ohio) as possible alternatives, though neither man is expected to have the votes.
Rep. Andy Biggs: The earliest warning sign for Johnson may be how the Arizona conservative votes on the speakership question. The former House Freedom Caucus chair is early in the alphabet and has recently said he is undecided on Johnson’s future.
Rep. Tim Burchett: The chatty Tennessee Republican has also been noncommittal about backing Johnson for speaker, though he predicted Johnson would ultimately have the votes to continue leading the House. “I think that the die has been cast pretty much. But as I stated, I will make up my mind on Friday,” Burchett said on Fox News’ “Your World” on Monday. He’ll come shortly after Biggs, so watch for early signs of a rebellion.
Rep. Lauren Boebert: The Colorado firebrand has been non-committal ahead of the vote, but said notably last May that “it makes no difference to me if it’s Hakeem Jeffries as speaker or Mike Johnson.” Johnson endorsed Boebert as she switched districts across her state last year.
Rep. Ralph Norman: The South Carolina conservative, like Roy and Massie, was a member of the powerful Rules Committee last Congress but has been noticeably reserved on whether he’d support Johnson for another term, but has questioned who else could get it. “Who would want the job?” he asked POLITICO.
House Freedom Caucus hardliners: Led by Freedom Caucus Chair Andy Harris (R-Md.), other members of the ultra-conservative bloc haven’t been willing to tip their hands on whether they’ll support Johnson on the floor. Other Republicans in this group include Reps. Scott Perry (Pa.), Eli Crane (Ariz.), Eric Burlison (Mo.), Michael Cloud (Texas) and Andrew Clyde (Ga.).
Democratic attendance: Perhaps the greatest X factor for the vote is whether Democrats can deliver on their confident projections of full attendance. It would require the return of members like Rep. Dwight Evans (Pa.), out since July following what his office called a “minor” stroke; former Speaker Nancy Pelosi (Calif.), who is recovering from hip replacement surgery; and members like Reps. Raul Grijalva (Ariz.) and Gerry Connolly (Va.), recovering from or in the midst of cancer treatment.
It seems unlikely any Democrats would step in to save Johnson from GOP hardliner defections as they pledged to do last spring. Even the most conservative members of the conference — think Reps. Jared Golden (Maine) and Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (Wash.) — voted for Hakeem Jeffries during last session’s protracted speaker fight, staying united against former Speaker Kevin McCarthy on all 15 ballots.
Congress
Mullin markup still on
A committee vote on Sen. Markwayne Mullin’s confirmation as Homeland Security secretary remains on track for Thursday despite a fiery sparring session Wednesday between the Oklahoma Republican and Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky, the chair of the panel that must approve his nomination.
A spokesperson for Paul said after the tense exchange — during which Mullin refused to apologize for comments saying he “understood” why Paul was violently assaulted in 2017 — that the committee vote “is on for tomorrow.”
As chair of the Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee, Paul has wide latitude to schedule action on Mullin’s nomination.
Congress
Elizabeth Warren backs Mallory McMorrow in Michigan Senate primary
Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren is wading into Michigan’s closely contested Democratic Senate primary, backing state Sen. Mallory McMorrow over two rivals.
It’s a somewhat counterintuitive endorsement for the progressive U.S. senator who has made her backing of Medicare for All a core part of her political identity. McMorrow opposes Medicare for All, while Abdul El-Sayed, one of McMorrow’s opponents, supports it.
But the endorsement is a coup for McMorrow as she seeks to win over the progressive wing of the party in her bid to succeed retiring Democratic Sen. Gary Peters. McMorrow has now secured endorsements from four senators — with Warren joining Chris Murphy of Connecticut, Martin Heinrich of New Mexico and Peter Welch of Vermont — more than opponents El-Sayed and Rep. Haley Stevens.
Warren said in a statement her relationship with McMorrow goes back nearly a decade.
“I remember first calling Michigan State Senator McMorrow after she flipped a Republican-held seat in 2018, and I was immediately inspired by her ideas, her plans, and her fight to make a real difference,” she said. “Mallory is both a fighter and a winner, and I’m proud to endorse her because she’s the proven leader Michigan needs in the United States Senate.”
Congress
Capitol agenda: Tulsi Gabbard takes the hot seat
Tulsi Gabbard heads into Senate Intelligence on Wednesday facing one of the most fraught moments of her tenure as director of national intelligence.
The longtime anti-interventionist is set to be the main character at Wednesday morning’s worldwide threats hearing when she appears with other administration officials, after former top aide Joe Kent resigned as director of the National Counterterrorism Center over the Iran war.
Kent’s resignation has raised the question of how much longer Gabbard will serve in the administration. She’s largely been silent since the U.S. and Israel began striking Iran in late February, and she’s been kept out of military planning on Iran since the U.S. struck nuclear sites in the country last summer.
“Both Kent and Gabbard have had less and less influence,” one House Republican granted anonymity to speak openly said. “They’ve been sidelined.” Gabbard will appear before House Intelligence Thursday.
Gabbard’s testimony last March that downplayed Iran’s nuclear weapons program — prompting a “she’s wrong” from President Donald Trump — is poised to be revisited by senators at Wednesday morning’s hearing, as are her anti-war positions.
“The president made the right move based upon the information that we’ve all seen in classified sessions,” said South Dakota Sen. Mike Rounds, an intel committee Republican. He signaled that Gabbard could be asked about her previous assessment at the hearing.
Around the same time in Dirksen this morning, Sen. Markwayne Mullin (R-Okla.) will be in the hot seat as he testifies on his nomination to replace Kristi Noem as Homeland Security secretary.
Senate Homeland Security is expected to quickly approve the nomination Thursday, though it’s TBD to what extent Mullin will get bipartisan support beyond Sen. John Fetterman (D-Pa.).
“We actually have a pretty good working relationship, and have worked on projects together, but we do have a lot of questions,” said Arizona Sen. Ruben Gallego, a committee Democrat who has yet to say how he’ll vote. “Largely it’s like, who really is in charge of DHS? … Is it going to be Stephen Miller’s in charge?”
What else we’re watching:
— House gets a FISA briefing: Trump officials will host a classified briefing for House members at 3:30 p.m. on the administration’s push for a clean reauthorization of Section 702 of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act, or FISA, due to expire April 20, as conservatives threaten to tank the effort.
Speaker Mike Johnson said he believes his members who are currently opposed to a clean, 18-month extension will ultimately vote for the party-line rule. But two House Republicans are already publicly vowing to oppose the procedural rule to tee up a clean FISA reauthorization, which leaders are aiming to put on the floor next week.
— DOJ officials brief House Oversight: Attorney General Pam Bondi and her deputy Todd Blanche will be on Capitol Hill on Wednesday to brief House Oversight Committee members on the Justice Department’s ongoing Jeffrey Epstein investigation.
It comes the day after the chair, Rep. James Comer (R-Ky.), subpoenaed Bondi to testify under oath as part of the committee’s own Epstein probe. But a GOP spokesperson for the committee said that Wednesday’s briefing, which was scheduled at DOJ’s request, won’t be a substitute for Bondi’s future testimony.
John Sakellariadis, Meredith Lee Hill, Mia McCarthy and Hailey Fuchs contributed to this report.
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