Congress
How a long speaker fight could impact Trump’s ability to start his next term
If Republicans fail to elect a speaker Friday, the ensuing chaos could impact two of the most crucial moments enshrined in the Constitution: the Jan. 6 certification of the 2024 election, and — if things really go haywire — the Jan. 20 inauguration of President-elect Donald Trump.
Trump has endorsed Speaker Mike Johnson for another stint atop the House and has privately indicated that he doesn’t want Republicans delaying his priorities with a drawn-out speaker fight. But Johnson’s restive right flank is weighing opposing him anyway, and the House is essentially frozen until it elects a speaker. So if the election to lead the House is significantly delayed, it will have a cascading effect that could upend the transfer of power from Joe Biden to Trump in unpredictable ways.
“I don’t think Trump has any interest in messing with the [certification]. And so there’s going to be a lot of pressure to coordinate on someone without a protracted fight,” said Matthew Glassman, a former Hill staffer who now studies congressional procedure as a senior fellow at the Government Affairs Institute at Georgetown University.
Constitutional and congressional experts have gamed out a handful of scenarios that could result, depending on how long the battle ensues. Here’s a look at some of the scenarios and details to watch should this fight enter uncharted territory:
A temporary speaker
If it becomes clear that Johnson can’t win the gavel, congressional experts say the least chaotic path for the House would be to elect a temporary or “caretaker” speaker.
“Jan. 6th serves as an obvious backstop to the speaker election. But not entirely,” Brendan Buck, a former aide to two GOP speakers, said Thursday. “They could just approve a resolution placing someone in the chair for the time-limited purpose of overseeing the joint session, and then go back to the speaker debate.”
This person would be tasked with swearing in all incoming House members, adopting procedures to govern the certification of the 2024 election and convening the House on Jan. 6 so lawmakers can meet to count the votes of the Electoral College, finalizing Trump’s victory.
After the election is certified, the caretaker speakership would end, facilitating the election of a permanent speaker. The biggest question about this path is whether Johnson himself would support it. His allies have been making the case that he must be elected speaker to ensure that Trump’s certification as president is not delayed. If he endorses a caretaker speakership, he instantly loses that leverage.
Convening the joint session
In presidential transition years, Congress uses its first day to adopt procedures to govern the Jan. 6 joint session to certify the election results. These procedures, which have traditionally been adopted by both the House and Senate, bind both chambers to the federal laws that govern the transfer of power.
A chaotic opening to the House’s 2025 session could threaten its ability to pass those procedures, creating yet another question mark around the certification of the election.
So far, leadership in both chambers have declined to comment on the status of their efforts to adopt procedures for the joint session, but if Johnson fails to corral enough votes to claim the speakership on Friday, the fate of these procedures could be the first bellwether of further procedural chaos on Jan. 6.
The wildest scenario
The most extreme, maximally chaotic outcome of this battle is a protracted speakership fight without a caretaker, one that stretches so deep into January it threatens the inauguration.
Most experts expect the House to get its act together by then, if only to avoid this precise scenario, but given the chamber’s chaos, it’s hard to count anything out.
It would be a power struggle with no precedent to guide the results. The letter of the Constitution says Biden’s term ends on Jan. 20 at noon, and if there’s no successor certified to take office, the job would fall to the first person in the presidential order of succession. Without a speaker, this would be the Senate President pro tempore, expected to be 91-year-old Chuck Grassley of Iowa, the most senior Republican member of the Senate.
It is hard to imagine congressional Republicans letting it get to this point, potentially denying Trump the triumphant return he craves and delaying — if not derailing — the start of his presidency. Much like the caretaker speakership, this could in effect be a caretaker presidency until the process facilitates Trump’s return to office.
Congress
Tim Scott to run for reelection to the Senate
Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.) will run for reelection in 2028, his campaign told Blue Light News on Wednesday, reversing a promise to serve just two full terms in the chamber.
Appointed by then-Gov. Nikki Haley to serve out the last two years of outgoing Sen. Jim DeMint’s Senate term in 2012, Scott had long said that 2022 would mark his final bid for the Senate.
He easily won reelection that year, besting Democratic state lawmaker Krystle Matthews by more than 25 percentage points. Scott then ran for president but abandoned his short-lived bid for the White House before the Iowa caucuses.
He was briefly considered to serve as now-President Donald Trump’s running mate and has since emerged as a key White House ally in the Senate.
“And I’ll say without any question that as I think about my own reelection in 2028, I think about all the lessons I’ve learned on the campaign trail for all these other candidates, and frankly, even in South Carolina,” Scott told the Charleston, South Carolina-based Post and Courier, which was first to report his reelection plans.
Congress
Quick vote on Mullin’s DHS nomination hangs on classified briefing
Hopes for a quick vote on Sen. Markwayne Mullin’s nomination as Homeland Security secretary hang on questions about secretive travel the Oklahoma Republican undertook as a House member a decade ago that are now being examined by his Senate colleagues.
Mullin was questioned extensively about the matter Wednesday by Sens. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) and Gary Peters (D-Mich.), the chair and ranking member, respectively, of the Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee.
Testifying under oath Wednesday, Mullin said he participated in what he described as “official travel” and a “classified trip” as part of a “special program inside the House” that went from 2015 to 2016. He said he was not a member of the House Intelligence Committee at the time and refused to answer further questions outside of a classified setting.
The attention on the matter came after Peters raised questions about Mullin’s past claims suggesting he had traveled to war zones and had first-hand exposure to combat environments despite his lack of a military background.
After the hearing adjourned Wednesday afternoon, Mullin joined Paul, Peters and other members of the committee in the Senate’s classified briefing facility.
“I’m one of these people who think that we silo off too much information from the public,” Paul told reporters after the hearing. “When we’re going to war, they tell eight people, it’s like, ‘Oh, we’ve notified Congress.’ So I don’t think that is adequate.”
“It makes people curious when you say, I’m doing secret missions for somebody, but I won’t tell you who, and only four people in the world know about those,” Paul added.
Mullin said only four people were “read into” the program in question and declined to say publicly what agencies or committees were involved.
“It’s a little difficult for us to go ask about a program that has no name and we have nobody that we know to talk to about it,” Peters said before Mullin agreed to the classified meeting. “So I don’t know how we would begin doing this without your cooperation.”
The questions about the shadowy travel erupted after Mullin’s nomination suddenly turned rocky after Paul questioned his temperament and fitness for office based on his past comments and behavior.
Paul later confirmed he would oppose Mullin’s nomination but said he still intended to hold a committee vote Thursday. To get through the panel with Paul opposed, Mullin will need the support of at least one Democrat.
Sen. John Fetterman (D-Pa.) has suggested he is inclined to support Mullin but declined to confirm Wednesday he would vote for him. Fetterman was among the senators spotted entering the classified meeting following the hearing.
“I’m willing to hold the vote tomorrow, but you brought this up that you were on a super secret mission,” Paul told Mullin at the hearing.
“No, I did not say super secret,” Mullin responded. “I said it was classified.”
Congress
Markwayne Mullin’s DHS nomination not at risk from Rand Paul, Thune says
Senate Majority Leader John Thune said he is confident Sen. Markwayne Mullin will be confirmed as the next secretary of Homeland Security despite a contentious exchange with fellow GOP Sen. Rand Paul at a hearing Wednesday.
Paul, the chair of the Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee, sharply questioned the Oklahoma senator about past remarks that he “understood” why Paul suffered a heinous assault from a neighbor in 2017. Mullin refused to apologize for the remark.
“Those two obviously have some history, and it’s, you know, personal stuff,” Thune said. “They’ve got to work through it. I mean, in the end, this is about the job, and it’s about making sure that we got the right person there. I think Markwayne is the right person for the job.”
Asked if he was still confident Mullin can be confirmed, Thune said, “Yeah.”
Paul has scheduled a committee vote on Mullin for Thursday. While Paul’s vote is in serious doubt, Mullin could win over Democratic Sen. John Fetterman of Pennsylvania, who has expressed support for Mullin previously and said Wednesday he would approach the nomination “with an open mind.”
“I haven’t been rocked by some mic-dropping kind of moments,” Fetterman told reporters after the hearing.
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