Congress

How a long speaker fight could impact Trump’s ability to start his next term

Published

1 year ago

January 2, 2025

If Republicans fail to elect a speaker Friday, the ensuing chaos could impact two of the most crucial moments enshrined in the Constitution: the Jan. 6 certification of the 2024 election, and — if things really go haywire — the Jan. 20 inauguration of President-elect Donald Trump.

Trump has endorsed Speaker Mike Johnson for another stint atop the House and has privately indicated that he doesn’t want Republicans delaying his priorities with a drawn-out speaker fight. But Johnson’s restive right flank is weighing opposing him anyway, and the House is essentially frozen until it elects a speaker. So if the election to lead the House is significantly delayed, it will have a cascading effect that could upend the transfer of power from Joe Biden to Trump in unpredictable ways.

“I don’t think Trump has any interest in messing with the [certification]. And so there’s going to be a lot of pressure to coordinate on someone without a protracted fight,” said Matthew Glassman, a former Hill staffer who now studies congressional procedure as a senior fellow at the Government Affairs Institute at Georgetown University.

Constitutional and congressional experts have gamed out a handful of scenarios that could result, depending on how long the battle ensues. Here’s a look at some of the scenarios and details to watch should this fight enter uncharted territory:

A temporary speaker
If it becomes clear that Johnson can’t win the gavel, congressional experts say the least chaotic path for the House would be to elect a temporary or “caretaker” speaker.

“Jan. 6th serves as an obvious backstop to the speaker election. But not entirely,” Brendan Buck, a former aide to two GOP speakers, said Thursday. “They could just approve a resolution placing someone in the chair for the time-limited purpose of overseeing the joint session, and then go back to the speaker debate.”

This person would be tasked with swearing in all incoming House members, adopting procedures to govern the certification of the 2024 election and convening the House on Jan. 6 so lawmakers can meet to count the votes of the Electoral College, finalizing Trump’s victory.

After the election is certified, the caretaker speakership would end, facilitating the election of a permanent speaker. The biggest question about this path is whether Johnson himself would support it. His allies have been making the case that he must be elected speaker to ensure that Trump’s certification as president is not delayed. If he endorses a caretaker speakership, he instantly loses that leverage.

Convening the joint session
In presidential transition years, Congress uses its first day to adopt procedures to govern the Jan. 6 joint session to certify the election results. These procedures, which have traditionally been adopted by both the House and Senate, bind both chambers to the federal laws that govern the transfer of power.

A chaotic opening to the House’s 2025 session could threaten its ability to pass those procedures, creating yet another question mark around the certification of the election.

So far, leadership in both chambers have declined to comment on the status of their efforts to adopt procedures for the joint session, but if Johnson fails to corral enough votes to claim the speakership on Friday, the fate of these procedures could be the first bellwether of further procedural chaos on Jan. 6.

The wildest scenario
The most extreme, maximally chaotic outcome of this battle is a protracted speakership fight without a caretaker, one that stretches so deep into January it threatens the inauguration.

Most experts expect the House to get its act together by then, if only to avoid this precise scenario, but given the chamber’s chaos, it’s hard to count anything out.

It would be a power struggle with no precedent to guide the results. The letter of the Constitution says Biden’s term ends on Jan. 20 at noon, and if there’s no successor certified to take office, the job would fall to the first person in the presidential order of succession. Without a speaker, this would be the Senate President pro tempore, expected to be 91-year-old Chuck Grassley of Iowa, the most senior Republican member of the Senate.

It is hard to imagine congressional Republicans letting it get to this point, potentially denying Trump the triumphant return he craves and delaying — if not derailing — the start of his presidency. Much like the caretaker speakership, this could in effect be a caretaker presidency until the process facilitates Trump’s return to office.

Congress

Thune is ‘hopeful’ Mitch McConnell will return this week

Published

2 hours ago

June 15, 2026

Blue Light Newsroom

Senate Majority Leader John Thune said Monday he hopes his predecessor as top Republican, Mitch McConnell, returns this week from a hospitalization.

Thune said he had not yet spoken directly with the 84-year-old Kentuckian but is getting “readouts from his staff.”

Asked about McConnell’s condition or if he knew if he would be back this week, Thune told reporters, “I’m hopeful that he’ll be back this week.”

A McConnell spokesperson said Sunday that he had been admitted to the hospital but did not provide details on his condition or why he was hospitalized — a break from recent prior instances where the seven-term senator was hospitalized.

A former McConnell staffer who spoke on the condition of anonymity was told the senator was doing much better Monday without any further details on what put him in the hospital.

Daniel Desrochers contributed to this report.

Congress

Senate to confirm Jay Clayton as soon as Thursday

Published

4 hours ago

June 15, 2026

Blue Light Newsroom

The Senate could vote as soon as Thursday on Jay Clayton’s nomination to serve as director of national intelligence — a lightning speed pace that will necessitate buy-in from all 100 senators.

Confirming Clayton could help shore up enough votes from Democrats to extend a government surveillance program that expired last Friday over opposition to Trump’s pick for acting director, Bill Pulte.

“He will come out of the committee Thursday, at least hopefully, and then if we get consent, we can move,” Senate Majority Leader John Thune said in an interview Monday about Clayton, who Trump only nominated for the job late last week.

Democrats “ought to be happy with Clayton,” said Thune, adding that he’s a “good” and “solid” pick.

Sen. Mark Warner of Virginia, the top Democrat on the Senate Intelligence Committee, floated Sunday to CBS News that Clayton could be confirmed this week if every senator cooperates.

Senate Intelligence will hold a hearing Wednesday on Clayton’s nomination. If every member of the panel agrees, he could then get a committee vote Thursday. Confirming Clayton on the Senate floor hours later would require getting agreement from every senator to speed up the process. Opposition from a single member will punt Clayton’s confirmation to next week.

Confirming Clayton Thursday would, crucially, limit — and potentially circumvent — Pulte from becoming acting director of national intelligence, which Trump has slated to take place Friday, June 19.

The president’s decision to put Pulte in charge after Tulsi Gabbard’s departure at the helm of the Office of National Intelligence sparked bipartisan pushback, with Democrats saying they will withhold support for extending Section 702 of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act while Pulte is in the acting role. Congress allowed the key government spy authority lapse last Friday without a deal.

Trump threw another curveball into a FISA extension over the weekend when he posted on social media that he was against reauthorizing Section 702 unless a GOP elections bill is attached. That bill, known as the SAVE America Act, does not have the votes to get through Congress.

Thune threw cold water Monday on tying the two issues together.

“Yeah, he’s, as you know, passionate about getting that done and wants to use every opportunity to take a shot at it,” Thune said of Trump and his desire to enact the elections bill.

But, Thune said, “we can’t get FISA done” if the policies are linked.

Congress

Senate eyes vote on updated housing affordability legislation

Published

6 hours ago

June 15, 2026

Blue Light Newsroom

Senate Majority Leader John Thune is planning to put an updated version of a bipartisan housing affordability bill on the Senate floor for a vote this week, according to two people familiar with the bill dynamics and two Senate Democratic aides granted anonymity to discuss ongoing plans.

The version of the 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act that the Senate will vote on will include most of the House-passed language, including a provision restricting large institutional investors from buying single-family homes. The legislation would also add back Senate bills that were dropped from the House package that passed last month, the two people and the two aides said.

The Senate legislation comes after talks between Thune, Senate Banking Chair Tim Scott (R-S.C.) and ranking member Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.). The updated Senate package was also discussed with the House and the White House, the aides said.

Still, it’s unclear if House leadership and the White House have signed off on the legislation.

The Senate and House have gone back and forth for months on language for a housing affordability bill as lawmakers on both sides look for a win to tout during a midterm election season dominated by cost-of-living issues.

Both chambers overwhelmingly passed their own versions of the housing bill — the Senate 89-10 in March, and the House 396-13 in May. The White House supported the Senate-passed bill and then backed the House-passed bill after it retained most of the Senate’s language on reining in private equity and other large Wall Street investors in the housing market — a top priority for President Donald Trump.

The Senate’s updated legislation would remove two of the House’s community banking deregulation bills due to budget scoring concerns, said two of the people familiar: two bills that would modify the Federal Deposit Insurance Act around failed insured depository institutions. The Senate bill also added back a provision to authorize the Community Development Block Grant Disaster Recovery program for seven years, as opposed to a permanent reauthorization in the Senate’s March legislation.

The Senate additionally re-inserted several upper-chamber priorities, including the BUILD NOW Act, which would incentivize communities to build more housing through the Community Development Block Grant program; the Rental Assistance Demonstration bill, which would raise the cap on housing authorities to convert voucher-based assistance; the Moving to Work bill, which would aim to add a new cohort of MTW public housing agencies; and the VALID Act, which would require Federal Housing Administration mortgage disclosures to include cost comparison information for veterans.

The package retains core wins for the leaders of both the Senate Banking and House Financial Services committees and their members and reflects input from all four leaders of those panels, one of the people familiar said.