Politics
Democrats are warning their party not to get too bullish on House gains
Senior Democrats are tempering their expectations about how big of a House majority they might win, as both parties see a tightening battlemap.
The latest rounds of internal polling from both parties from the middle of October show GOP candidates gaining ground in the Midwest and narrowing races in a key Colorado seat and elsewhere, according to six people familiar with the data who were granted anonymity to discuss it. Republicans’ deluge of money also seems to be helping shore up some imperiled Florida seats even as they face serious problems in North Carolina and Texas. The GOP gerrymandered those three states in their favor in the Trump-induced round of redistricting following the 2024 election.
Now, Democrats on Capitol Hill are starting to privately caution some of their bolder colleagues that it seems very possible they don’t hit the 235-seat height of their majority following the 2018 elections, according to one of those people and two others with direct knowledge of the conversations.
“I don’t think anyone ever believed we were going to have 2018 numbers,” one House Democrat said. “I honestly think the results are going to be all over the place. Caution seems smart to me. But, optimistic is also a good place to be.”
That’s a notable change from the tune some Democrats were singing just earlier this month: Brooke Butler, political director for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, had predicted that their majority this cycle could reach 240 seats. “Anywhere between 218 and 240 feels very viable,” she told POLITICO earlier this month in announcing the DCCC’s plans to target new districts deep in GOP territory.
Some Democrats feel their own internal polling is over-indexing their strength in some cases, according to two other operatives working on competitive races, granted anonymity to speak candidly. But the party is still confident they’ll win the majority and are eager to keep Republicans spending to defend once-safe red seats.
Before the all-out GOP panic started in late September and boosted many Democrats’ bullishness, Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries predicted House Democrats would win 220 seats.
“Given the mountain of outside, billionaire-backed cash being dropped in competitive House races across the country and the seemingly never-ending schemes by Republicans to try to rig the midterms — we’ve always known that the majority-making races would come down to the wire,” DCCC spokesperson Viet Shelton said in a statement. “We’re clear-eyed that House Democrats are poised to win the majority, and it will take running flat out until Election Day.”
Still, the tightening in the core House battleground districts that were identified as battlegrounds early on means a slew of those races are currently within the margin of error, or Republicans in some cases are running just a few points behind, according to the six people with knowledge of the internal Democratic and GOP polling. That includes the race for Michigan’s 7th District between GOP Rep. Tom Barrett and Democrat William Lawrence.
Another marquee battleground in Wisconsin’s 3rd District has tightened a few points since last month, as Republicans pour in millions of dollars more in ad spending. Democrat Rebecca Cooke is running 1 percentage point ahead of GOP Rep. Derrick Van Orden in a multi-candidate vote, 47% to 46%, according to an internal Cooke campaign poll from mid-October obtained by Blue Light News. “Wisconsin is always close and hard-fought — especially in a district Trump won decisively,” a Cooke campaign aide said. “Our working class message is connecting, but we need the resources to make sure it’s heard.”
In Iowa, Republicans still feel they’re likely to lose Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks 1st District. But they’re cautiously optimistic about Rep. Zach Nunn in Iowa’s 3rd district and Joe Mitchell in Iowa’s open 2nd District, where President Donald Trump is set to hold a rally on Nov. 1.
“Any Republican in Iowa in a neck and neck race ends up winning on Election Day,” said one GOP operative working on House races, who was granted anonymity to discuss the landscape.
Top GOP staff and officials still believe it’s more likely than not that they lose the House majority, but they’re hopeful they can limit Democrats’ margin.
The new polling is helping them see they might avoid some of the deep hemorrhaging, especially in the Midwest, that they feared in late September and earlier this month. That region has been hit hardest by Trump’s tariff agenda and rising diesel costs resulting from an unpopular Iran war — something the White House has seemed to acknowledge, with Trump promising $8 billion to farmers hurting from high fuel prices.
“Democrats spent months measuring the drapes, and now they’re scrambling to lower expectations before a single race is called,” National Republican Congressional Committee spokesperson Mike Marinella said. “Republicans have been laser-focused since day one and built our operation to win the races that will get us to 218.”
Trump is also personally working to shore up at-risk Republicans in his home state of Florida with a visit Friday to rally GOP voters.
Republicans in the last few days started to pile money into a series of once-safe GOP seats there, including Rep. Anna Paulina Luna’s Gulf Coast seat. Republicans are also racing to save several open seats, despite redrawing the districts in their favor, where the GOP is struggling. House Majority Leader Steve Scalise is in South Florida to boost GOP Rep. Maria Salazar on Friday and campaigned on Thursday for Republican Dan Green in the redrawn seat against Rep. Darren Soto, who should be toast under the GOP gerrymander in most political environments.
Senior Republicans believe the money bomb is starting to help shore up some Florida seats, though they still have more work to do.
South Texas remains one of the worst spots on the map for House Republicans, after the top House GOP super PAC cut off spending for one of their star recruits — Tano Tijerina, who is challenging Democratic Rep. Henry Cuellar — to help other imperiled GOP candidates. Some at-risk Republicans in the area, like Rep. Monica De La Cruz, should’ve been safe in a recently redrawn seat.
In North Carolina, Republicans are facing some dire fallout across House seats after the implosion of Republican Michael Whatley’s Senate campaign and top Senate GOP groups cutting off spending in the state. Top House GOP groups and Trump’s political operation have already cut off spending in North Carolina’s open 11th District, where Democrat Jamie Ager is challenging Republican Jennifer Balkcom.
911 EMERGENCY: An ambulance in New York City now takes an average of 13 minutes to reach someone in life-threatening distress.
That response time has risen five years straight and is up 41.2% from a decade ago, a city comptroller’s report revealed earlier this month. According to this year’s Mayor’s Management Report, which came out in September, ambulance response times to life-threatening emergencies shot up by almost 16% between fiscal year 2025 and fiscal year 2026 — the sharpest increase this decade.
A core part of the issue is that calling 911 does not necessarily mean an ambulance will be immediately dispatched. Callers are put in dispatch queues. If a higher-priority call comes through, the ambulance might be rerouted. And all of this happens behind the scenes — which means those experiencing medical emergencies have no idea when help will actually arrive.
Council member Joann Ariola, chair of the Fire and Emergency Management Committee, proposed a bill in August that would require the city to send New Yorkers broad notifications when the emergency response system is overloaded.
Now, the Queens Republican is pushing for these notifications to be completely personalized.
“The idea is that I would be able to track my ambulance in real time, just like you’re able to do for your bus, or your train, or your rideshare car,” she told Playbook.
If patients know how far away help is, they can make an informed decision to forgo an ambulance and instead pursue other means of transportation to a hospital, she said. That would also alleviate pressure on the already overloaded EMS system and potentially get callers the care they need faster.
The idea has support from a council member across the political aisle.
“We get live texts about everything under the sun, but for some reason, in our current system, we don’t get alerts about this,” Democratic Council member Harvey Epstein said. “If I’m waiting for an ambulance because my kid broke their leg, and I learn that it’s going to be half an hour, it’s smarter for me to just hop in a cab anyway.”
Ariola said she met with top FDNY officials — including Commissioner Lillian Bonsignore, Chief of Department John Esposito and Chief of EMS Paul Miano — ahead of Tuesday’s hearing to discuss the idea. All of them, she said, appeared more receptive to specific text alerts than to the broad notification system proposed in her initial bill.
Amanda Farinacci, an FDNY spokesperson, said the department is “considering and exploring all options that will help us respond to emergency medical calls quickly and keep New Yorkers informed.”
“We are exploring all our options, this included,” she said, referring to the live text-update model.
Ariola said she’s submitted the new version of the bill and is waiting to hear back from the legislative affairs committee.
The solution proposed by she and Epstein would address the public-facing side of the problem, offering relief to callers in emergency situations.
The root cause of the issue, though, is retaining EMS employees — a challenge officials and union leaders say stems from low pay for a high-stress job.
“This is not fixing the broken system,” Ariola said. “We are in a state of emergency right now. It’s a systemic problem with EMS because they cannot retain their members, because it’s not a career.”
Entry-level pay for emergency medical technicians is less than that of sanitation workers, firefighters, correction officers and police officers. Since 2019, about 4,300 EMTs and paramedics have left their titles, many for better-paying jobs elsewhere in the department. Last fiscal year, 58% of departing EMTs became firefighters.
The union representing emergency medical workers is negotiating a contract that lapsed in 2022, and it’s seeking pay parity with firefighters. But the comptroller’s report found that parity alone would raise EMS salary-related expenses by $184 million a year, a 66% jump.
“The City can reverse this dangerous trend by ensuring members of EMS are treated as equals to members of fire operations, and by providing EMS personnel with pay and benefit parity comparable to their firefighter counterparts,” Local 3621 President Vincent Variale and Local 2507 President Michael Greco said in a joint statement. “These actions would not only treat our EMS workforce respectfully and properly; they would save the lives of New Yorkers in peril.”
Response times to life-threatening emergencies saw the sharpest year-to-year increase of the decade between the last two fiscal years, a timeframe that straddles the Mamdani administration and the administration of former Mayor Eric Adams.
“This is something that each mayor inherited, but the new administration, it is now absolutely their issue,” Ariola said. “I’m hoping this is the administration that finally solves the retention problem. And the only way to solve that problem is to pay EMTs their worth and also recognize them as uniformed workers.”
The mayor’s office declined to comment on Ariola’s new proposal and referred to a comment from the fire department.
“The Department is currently engaged in a challenging period of increasing response times. We know this is unacceptable and we are working tirelessly to reverse this trend,” Farinacci said. “We will continue to take steps to improve response times and keep New Yorkers safe, including improving coordination with hospitals, enhancing efficiency in high-volume areas, and increased operational visibility to help return units to service quickly.” — Molly Reinmann
FROM THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL
A SUBURBAN ALARM: Suburban voters across the country are turning against President Donald Trump, according to a poll that amounts to a major warning sign for the GOP this election season.
The results of the National Suburban Poll by the National Center for Suburban Studies at Hofstra University paint a bleak picture for Trump and his party.
“Numbers that are concerning Republicans throughout the country become even more so when they show up in suburbs, which for years have been the ‘swing’ voting bloc that determines national and many statewide elections,” said Larry Levy, the center’s dean. “When a party’s or candidate’s numbers are weak in the suburbs, as we’ve found in many instances for Republicans, the situation goes from concerning to alarming.”
The survey found 33% of suburban voters approve of the president’s job performance. His approval rating in swing suburban House seats isn’t much better: 35%.
Just over a quarter of suburban voters nationally — 26% — are satisfied with the direction of the country.
Suburban voters by a margin of 50% to 42% prefer Democrats over Republicans in the generic Congressional ballot question. The GOP, though, is in a statistical tie with Democrats in suburban swing seats. In those districts, Democrats lead Republicans 47% to 44%.
Taken together, the numbers highlight the challenge Republicans face this year, especially in deep blue New York, home to several swing House districts in the New York City suburbs.
The most competitive race is in the Hudson Valley, where GOP Rep. Mike Lawler is fending off a challenge from Democratic opponent Cait Conley.
The survey included 1,500 people nationwide and was conducted in late September. It oversampled suburban residents who live in swing House districts. — Nick Reisman
SARATOGA FRESH: To get an idea of how much national headwinds might apply to the New York State Senate, look to Saratoga County.
Plenty of indicators suggest two factors will heavily influence the outcome: Voters are angry at Republicans and willing to oppose well-tenured incumbents.
That could be a double-barreled problem for Sen. Jim Tedisco, who’s running in a district where Donald Trump lost by 8 points two years ago. The Republican is now the dean of the state Legislature by a large margin: Tedisco came to Albany in 1983, the first year of Mario Cuomo’s time as governor. Only four other members who might be in office next year served in 1999.
“Jim Tedisco’s been in office for over 40 years, almost as long as I’ve been alive,” said Sarah Rogerson, Tedisco’s Democratic challenger. “People are ready for some fresh voices.”
Even if current assumptions about the electorate’s mood prove true, Republicans remain optimistic they won’t apply to New York. The GOP believes 2026 will be a repeat of 2022, when a lack of enthusiasm for the top of the ticket meant a good year for Democrats nationwide bypassed the Empire State.
“If there’s going to be a blue wave across the country, it’s probably going to miss New York, and it’s largely because of how deeply unpopular Kathy Hochul is,” Senate Republican Campaign Committee Chair George Borrello said.
Nobody’s predicting Republicans will retake the majority in a chamber where Democrats had a 41-22 edge this year. The main question now is whether Democrats can pull off a two-thirds supermajority of 42 or more members, a feat accomplished in 2020 and 2022 but not 2024.
READ MORE in Blue Light News Pro from Bill Mahoney.
FROM CITY HALL
BILL SIGNING TIME: Mayor Zohran Mamdani will sign two bills passed by the City Council that come with significant transit and housing policy ramifications, his office confirmed today.
The first measure Mamdani plans to put his John Hancock on will abolish New York City’s horse carriage industry. The second will give nonprofit groups and local land trusts first dibs on buying distressed residential properties in their communities, with the idea that those regulations will protect affordable housing stock.
Mamdani had already voiced support for both pieces of legislation before the Council passed them yesterday. But his office hadn’t until today confirmed he would sign the bills, as opposed to letting them lapse into law.
Mamdani’s office did not immediately provide a date for when he plans to sign the bills.
The issue of signing bills came to the fore this week when the New York Post noted that Mamdani has only inked one bill since taking office. Ultimately, as long as the mayor doesn’t veto a bill, there’s no practical difference between whether he signs it or lets it lapse, as it becomes law regardless. — Chris Sommerfeldt
IN OTHER NEWS
— IN THE SCHOOLS: New York City is considering closing a Harlem high school due to underenrollment, the first in what could be a growing number of school mergers and closures amid public school enrollment declines. (Chalkbeat)
— HOCHUL: The governor’s vision for New York is largely shaped by her upbringing in a small Rust Belt city in western New York and her family’s slow climb up the socioeconomic ladder. (New York Times)
— CORNELL 7: Attorney General Letitia James is asking a court to dismiss a request to remove her from the investigation into the alleged sexual assault at Cornell University due to impartiality concerns. (Times Union)
Missed this morning’s New York Playbook? We forgive you. Read it here.
President Donald Trump and his allies are mounting a last-minute mission to shore up his longtime personal friend in a battleground Arizona district.
GOP groups have spent more than $22 million to boost Jay Feely against Democrat Amish Shah, with much of that spending coming in the final weeks of the race. The president has known Feely for decades as a friend and golf partner, and he sees the former Arizona Cardinals kicker as a formidable candidate, according to two Trump officials familiar with their relationship, who were granted anonymity to share details about it.
The ferocious support for Feely appears to mark a rare instance of personal friendship and loyalty shaping political strategy in the close of the midterm campaign — especially after Trump personally intervened to clear a pathway for Feely to clinch the nomination. Trump and his allies have largely taken an unsentimental approach to political spending, including backing away from high-profile Senate races in Georgia and North Carolina where Trump loyalists are on the ballot.
Trump, in public and private, maneuvered other Republicans out of the way so Feely could switch races and defend one of the premier battleground districts in the country, according to the two Trump officials.
Still, Feely has been forced to navigate Trump’s deep unpopularity on the campaign trail.
Shah has been working to tie Feely to Trump in a flurry of ads, in the district where the president has an approval rating around negative 13 points, according to Democratic internal polling viewed by Blue Light News.
Feely, a star GOP recruit, also attended a meeting with Speaker Mike Johnson and tech billionaire Elon Musk in Texas this August as top Republicans worked to secure Musk’s help in defending the House GOP majority alongside the Senate, according to two people with direct knowledge of the meeting, granted anonymity to share private details.
Musk has donated $20 million to the top House GOP super PAC, though he’s focused much of his attention this midterms season on the Texas Senate race.
The Trump team appears to be taking a pragmatic view of Feely’s campaign, giving him some room to distance himself from the White House — even if that means avoiding the president’s rallies and breaking with him on other matters, according to the two Trump officials and two other people with direct knowledge of the matter who were granted anonymity to speak candidly.
Feely posted on social media this week: “I will stand up to anyone including the president if it is not in the best interest of this district and this state.” He and another battleground Arizona Republican, Rep. Juan Ciscomani, didn’t attend a rally Trump held in their state Oct. 14.
Brian Seitchik, Feely’s general consultant and a former 2016 and 2020 Trump campaign staffer, would only say Feely “regrettably could not attend” the event.
Feely’s run is a rare case this cycle where the Republican candidate is a well-known figure in his own right — and who has been personal friends with Trump for decades. He’s running in a wealthy GOP-held district that includes Scottsdale and part of the Phoenix suburbs that the president only narrowly won in 2024 and Democrats are eager to flip. Trump officials are keenly aware if they lose the seat, Democrats could hold it for several elections to come.
“Both parties know how important the seat is,” Feely told Blue Light News at the GOP midterm convention in Dallas this September. “It’ll be one of three to five seats in the country that’ll determine who wins the House,” he said, predicting it would “probably be the most expensive race in the country.”
“I’m honored to have a relationship with President Trump for the last two decades and to have his support at the same time,” Feely added at the time.
Internal polling on both sides show Feely locked in a tossup race against Shah, who was a physician with the New York Jets during Feely’s tenure on that team.
Feely noted the importance of winning over independent voters in the district. That’s an even harder task now given the growing unpopularity of the war in Iran and high fuel prices hitting voters.
The White House did not respond to a request for comment.
“In a race that’s going to come down to potentially hundreds of votes, Jay is doing the hard work required to win this battleground seat,” Seitchik, Feely’s general consultant, said.
Trump and Feely, who went on to have a career in broadcasting, have known each other for several decades. They’ve golfed together in recent years: Feely posted a photo of himself with Trump in August of 2020 after a round of golf with the president at his Bedminster, New Jersey, club. “What an epic day!!” he wrote.
Trump-aligned super PACs have poured north of $9 million into the race to boost Feely on the airwaves against Shah. The top House GOP super PAC, Congressional Leadership Fund, is highly focused on defending the seat and has also dropped nearly $7 million on the race. And the National Republican Congressional Campaign has spent $2.6 million on coordinated ad buys with Feely’s campaign.
Feely was originally running in the redder 5th District to replace Andy Biggs, who is now competing to be the state’s next governor. But Trump urged Feely to switch races to the battleground 1st District after retiring GOP Rep. David Schweikert announced he would also run for governor.
Trump’s encouragement helped draw Feely into a GOP primary fight with Gina Swoboda, a longtime Trump ally and former state party chair. The president initially expressed support for both Feely and Swoboda, but soon he posted only in support of his personal friend.
“I know Jay well, and he is a TOTAL WINNER, on and off the field!” Trump wrote.
President Donald Trump is asking voters to “pretend” he is on the ballot. That might backfire.
New results from The POLITICO Poll show that Democratic midterm voters are more motivated to oppose the president than Republican voters are to support him. Many Republican voters also aren’t looking for blind loyalty to Trump in the midterms: Half say they’d rather their local candidate aim to win, even if it means speaking out against the president.
It’s not uncommon for voters in the party out of power to be more motivated in a midterm year. But the lopsided findings are an ominous sign for Trump, who has fundamentally reshaped the GOP over the past decade and has once again staked his brand — and political capital — on delivering wins for Republicans in November.
With less than two weeks before the election, the poll suggests Republicans are pragmatic, and care more about preventing a blue wave than standing by Trump. And in a year when voter frustration over high pricesappears poised to play a major role, that distinction could prove consequential.
The poll, conducted by London-based firm PF Global, reveals the extent to which frustration with Trump is driving Democrats: Nearly half of Democratic midterm voters say they will be voting “mainly to oppose President Trump,” compared to just 38% of Republican voters who say they will be voting mainly to show support for Trump.
Instead, a plurality of Republican midterm voters — 48% — say their main motivation when casting a vote is to show support for a local candidate. Only 37% of Democratic voters agree.
“[Trump is] 100% motivating Democrats more than Republicans,” said Doug Heye, a longtime GOP strategist. “That may have been the case regardless, but it’s even more true with words like ‘diesel’ and ‘Iran’ now a part of everyday political discussion.”
Half of Republicans think candidates have a better chance of winning if they align themselves with Trump rather than breaking from him, compared to just 30% who believe candidates would have a better chance of winning if they break away.
But half of Republicans also accept their candidates speaking out against the president if that’s what they need to do to win their own election. That’s compared with 37% who say candidates should remain loyal to the president and support his agenda, even if it means risking a loss.
On top of that, majorities of Republican voters say Trump himself should give candidates some room to break with him on specific policy issues to win elections.
If it helps GOP candidates’ chances of winning, they said, the president should allow for disagreement on the speed of AI development, the cost of living, and whether the war in Iran was a good decision. That holds true for pluralities or even majorities of Trump 2024 voters who self-identify as part of the “MAGA” movement across each policy area, suggesting that even his most loyal voters want the president to let candidates distance themselves if it can help them win.
“President Trump is the unequivocal leader, best messenger, and unmatched motivator for the Republican Party, and he is committed to maintaining Republican majorities in Congress,” said White House spokesperson Davis Ingle.
RNC spokesperson Natalie Baldassarre said “Blue Light News didn’t need to conduct a poll to know that Democrats are motivated by their hatred for President Trump and Republicans.” She added that the GOP is “running on actual accomplishments like cutting taxes and securing the border,” while saying Democrats have made “investigations, obstruction, and impeachment” their campaign platform.
Still, the tension is playing out in real time as Republican candidates locked in competitive races walk a tightrope between maintaining Trump’s support — and that of his MAGA base — without alienating critical moderate and independent voters. They’re especially under pressure as Trump hits the campaign trail in battlegrounds and red states, with several candidates having to quietly make calculations whether it will hurt them politically to appear next to him.
“I think Republicans … are stuck choosing which finger to cut off,” said a national GOP operative, granted anonymity to speak candidly about the midterm landscape. “There is no good answer.”
In Iowa, where voter frustration over some of Trump’s marquee policies, including tariffs and rising costs stemming from the Iran war, has mounted, Republican candidates have sought to create some distance from the president. Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson, the party’s Senate nominee, has said the war needs to be “brought to a successful and immediate end.” She also skipped a rally Vice President JD Vance held in the state last month.
Several other GOP candidates have also skipped Trump rallies in their home states, and many have grown increasingly wary of mentioning Trump in ads, including in red states that over the last few months have suddenly started to look competitive. In battleground Georgia, GOP gubernatorial nominee Rick Jackson has carefully navigated his relationship with Trump, avoiding public breaks with the president on policy but still limiting direct references to him in campaign ads and on the debate stage.
“I don’t know that Trump coming [to Georgia] helps Republicans more so than it excites Democrats, especially in a wave election year,” said Jason Shepherd, a former Cobb County GOP chair who is supporting Jackson.
That leaves Republican candidates in a tricky position: Their voters are willing to accept breaking from Trump if victory is on the line, but voters — and candidates — won’t know what will cost them their race until it’s too late.
“There’s no reason to gratuitously attack the White House and make an enemy,” the national GOP operative said. “But the end game here is to get reelected, and if they have to get reelected, but the president’s annoyed at them for a period of time, they’ll get over it.”
While Republican candidates balance loyalty to Trump with the possibility of breaking away on certain issues, Democratic midterm voters remain highly motivated to vote against Trump’s agenda.
Even Trump’s endorsement of a Republican candidate seems to influence Democrats more than Republicans: Roughly 70% of Democratic midterm voters say his endorsement would make them less likely to support a candidate, compared to 55% of Republican midterm voters who say the endorsement would make them more likely to support a candidate.
“The midterm elections are about anger management and failed expectations,” said North Carolina based GOP strategist Paul Shumaker. “A lot of Republicans and swing voters feel like their expectations have not been met in helping address their economic concerns.”
Alec Hernández and Alisa Vasquez contributed to this story.
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