Congress
Trump’s trade moves add to GOP’s midterm anxieties
Republicans were already struggling to defuse simmering voter frustrations over the cost of living ahead of the midterms. Then President Donald Trump rekindled his trade wars.
Trump’s latest actions — especially his decision to impose 50 percent tariffs on $20 billion worth of Canadian goods, inviting retaliatory duties from America’s No. 2 trading partner — has sparked new pushback from GOP lawmakers and candidates.
His moves are set to reverberate especially hard in a handful of states crucial to the party’s hopes of keeping their Senate majority. That includes northern border states, such as Maine and Michigan, as well as agriculture-heavy battlegrounds like Iowa and North Carolina that have been buffeted for more than a year by Trump’s embrace of hardball trade tactics.
“We’ve got 71 days, and right now we don’t have a positive message to tell farm country,” said retiring GOP Sen. Thom Tillis, whose North Carolina seat is at risk of flipping into Democrats’ hands in November.
Trump’s threat to impose tariffs on Canada is creating “tension,” Tillis added, and that “the party that owns that tension is the party that will probably suffer the consequences in November.”
Even the president’s latest bid to ease price pressures on Americans has generated unease among Republicans. While he touted his decision last week to temporarily allow the duty-free import of 300,000 metric tons of foreign beef as a win for consumers, the announcement was met with little praise from GOP lawmakers, who instead worry the bigger political impact will be to alienate key constituencies in rural states hosting competitive House and Senate races.
Rep. Tim Burchett (R-Tenn.) said in an interview Tuesday he’d spoken this week with the small farmers and ranchers who would bear the brunt of Trump’s beef import holiday.
“I think it could hurt us at the polls,” he said. “That’s a very strong group.”
The beef imports have jolted races in Iowa, where GOP Rep. Ashley Hinson, who is running to succeed retiring Sen. Joni Ernst, said in a social media post that the imports were “a bad idea” that would create “more uncertainty and instability for our farmers.”
Meanwhile, Rep. Zach Nunn, another Republican who is seeking reelection, said Friday at the Iowa State Fair alongside Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins that Trump is “right” that “we want to make sure that people can afford to eat” but that “we don’t do it on the backs of our cattlemen.”
But it’s the hefty Canada tariffs that could create the bigger problem for the GOP. Four border states — Maine, Michigan, New Hampshire and Alaska — as well as manufacturing-heavy Ohio are on the front lines of both the midterms and Trump’s North American trade war.
The economy is consistently the top issue for voters of both parties. Fifty-six percent of U.S. adults said cost-of-living concerns are among the top issues facing the country in a recent Blue Light News Poll.
A notable share of Trump’s own voters hold negative views about the current state of the economy — and how he is trying to improve it. A 33 percent plurality of Trump’s 2024 voters said rising prices are among the biggest failures of Trump’s second term, according to the survey conducted earlier this month by London-based Public First. Just 16 percent pointed to improving the cost of living as one of his biggest successes.
Among Trump voters who said things are less affordable now than a year ago, most blamed the Iran war (52 percent), but a sizable share (42 percent) blamed Trump’s tariffs on imported goods.
Vice President JD Vance defended the Canada tariffs Monday during a stop in Maine, saying Trump was taking long-overdue action to address unfair trade practices. But Sen. Susan Collins, who did not appear at the Vance event citing a scheduling conflict, told reporters over the weekend that she believed the Canada tariffs were a “mistake.”
“We produce a lot in Maine — our blueberries, our potatoes, our lobster, our lumber — that is processed across the border,” said Collins, who voted to undo prior Trump levies targeting Canada. “If it comes back with a huge tariff on it … that increases the cost of eating, building homes.”
Former Republican Sen. John Sununu, who is running to recapture his New Hampshire Senate seat this fall, said in a statement to Blue Light News Tuesday that “it makes no sense to start a trade war with our closest neighbor” as Democratic nominee Rep. Chris Pappas suggested Sununu “stands with Trump.”
“Canada is an important and valued trading partner for New Hampshire,” Sununu added. “As Senator, I’d encourage both sides to continue to negotiate and keep trade flowing between our countries.”
In Alaska, a group aligned with Senate Democrats has been hammering GOP Sen. Dan Sullivan with ads for months related to “raising costs” and tariffs as Democrats have sought to put in play a state Trump won handily three times. Multiple political forecasters now view the Alaska Senate race as a tossup between Sullivan and former Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola.
Campaign representatives for Sullivan and for former Rep. Mike Rogers, who is the GOP Senate nominee in Michigan, did not respond to requests for comment about the Canada tariffs.
The fallout from a trade war with Canada could also impact Republicans’ affordability message as they attempt to hold onto the House.
“The president picked an unnecessary fight with a friend,” retiring Rep. Don Bacon (R-Neb.) said in a text message Tuesday. “The trade war will hurt both Americans and Canadians and for no good reason.”
The latest trade anxiety is landing amid broader economic woes that can be traced in large part to energy price spikes associated with the Trump-initiated war with Iran — a conflict that has dragged on for months longer than many GOP lawmakers privately hoped. Democrats, in turn, have spent months using those price spikes and voters’ dissatisfaction with the war as ammunition to sink Republicans in key states that could hand them majorities in both the House and Senate.
Republicans have taken comfort in the Democratic infighting that has marked primary season and the ascendance of hard-left nominees in many races — including in Michigan, where the GOP hopes to flip the seat being relinquished by retiring Democratic Sen. Gary Peters. The new Canadian tariffs, however, threaten to distract from Rogers’ campaign to paint Democratic opponent, Abdul el-Sayed, as too extreme for the state.
“Americans are paying more for everything because GOP Senate candidates have served as a rubber stamp for Trump’s chaotic tariffs at the expense of their states,” DSCC spokesperson Tommy Garcia said in a statement Tuesday. “Come November, voters will hold them accountable for making life more expensive.”
Senate Republicans decamped to their home states earlier this month hoping that they would be able to use the August recess to focus on selling last year’s GOP tax cuts and a growing economy as they try to convince voters to overlook their cost-of-living concerns.
Republican Sen. Mike Rounds, who is seeking reelection in the reliably red agriculture state of South Dakota, said he thought his party is “in pretty good shape” to keep the majority. He added, though, that Republicans will need to “work hard” and “focus on what voters back home care about, which is the price of gas, price of groceries, making sure that in our ag economy we’re focused on helping to bring prices up for our commodity products.”
Others in the GOP have put voters’ affordability concerns in less rosy terms, including Sen. Jim Justice (R-W.Va.).
“I’ve been the voice that’s been saying, ‘You people are living in a cave if you don’t see that folks out there … are hurting,’” Justice told reporters last week. “And we need to absolutely be more in tune with them.”
Erin Doherty and Grace Yarrow contributed to this report.
NEW YORK — One of the most vulnerable Republicans in the House is running on immigration — and taking on both parties over it.
Rep. Mike Lawler is hammering Democrats over “sanctuary” policies while criticizing the Trump administration’s aggressive — and at times lethal — immigration enforcement tactics.
“Renee Good and Alex Pretti should not be dead. But neither should Sheridan Gorman, and neither should Laken Riley, and neither should the thousands of people who have been murdered by people who are in our country illegally and committing crimes,” Lawler said at a candidate forum earlier this month. “So yes, ICE needs reforms, but you know what? Sanctuary jurisdictions should not exist. Criminals should be deported.”
Lawler is betting his self-described “common sense” approach can win him a third term in a suburban Hudson Valley district Kamala Harris carried in 2024. His race against Democrat Cait Conley, an Army veteran and first-time candidate, could help determine control of the House.
Immigration has helped Republicans win elections, but broad dissatisfaction with President Donald Trump’s policies has made it a less certain advantage this year. Lawler is pressing it anyway.
He’s run paid media on the topic and held multiple events decrying Democrats’ immigration policies. In a recent interview with a panel of local reporters, he even brought it up himself: “We did not touch on immigration, and I want to raise this because this is a real problem,” he said.
“Fundamentally, when you look at the challenge, I think most people want common sense, not extremism, on the issue of immigration,” Lawler told reporters after a debate with Conley earlier this week.
Whether that emphasis matches voters’ priorities is another question. A recent Emerson College poll found immigration ranked far behind the economy and threats to democracy among the district’s most important issues. And Trump, whose approval ratings are abysmal in New York state, is often at the center of the immigration debate.
Lawler has been able to criticize Trump without drawing the backlash other Republicans have faced. He repeatedly highlights his fight with the president to raise the cap for the state and local tax deduction, which Trump ended up praising him for at a rally earlier this year.
Other Republicans who’ve sought to create distance with the president haven’t fared nearly as well. Rep. María Elvira Salazar is just one. Trump eviscerated the Florida Republican after she released a campaign ad challenging his immigration crackdown.
Yet even Lawler’s leverage with Trump has limits.
He’s highlighted his support for extending Temporary Protected Status, or TPS, for Haitians, thousands of whom live in his district. When the Trump administration announced it would be ending those protections for Haitians earlier this year, Lawler made his opposition known, warning it was not safe to send people back to the country.
He said he’s been working on individual cases to support Haitians in his district. Jean Bernard Charles, who lives in Rockland County, told Blue Light News that Lawler’s office was helpful in getting his wife to the country and he recommended his friends facing the same situation to go to the office for help.
Lawler also cosponsored legislation to extend TPS, which is stalled in the Senate. He argued that he’s fulfilled his role by passing a bill through the House and has blamed Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer for not moving it along. (In response, Schumer’s office said in a statement that the leader “moved to extend Haitian TPS on the Senate floor by unanimous consent and was blocked by Senate Republicans and President Trump, who Lawler constantly supports.”)
“I’ve explained this to the White House, repeatedly, that ending TPS was a stupid decision,” Lawler said at the forum. “I am opposed to it, and I will continue to fight back against it.”
The administration hasn’t budged, though. Community leaders in Rockland County, where the district’s Haitian community is based, say many immigrants are too scared to leave their homes. Some are growing frustrated that more isn’t being done.
“If there was the help, our folks would not be wearing ankle monitors,” said Nicole Hines, the NAACP’s mid-Hudson and Westchester regional director.
Renold Julien, the executive director of Konbit Neg Lakay, a Haitian community center in Lawler’s district, pointed to Lawler’s close relationship with Trump, including the president coming to the district earlier this year and Lawler appearing at a meeting at the White House with Jewish leaders, some of whom are from the district.
“I feel bad for Mike Lawler,” Julien said. “Friends don’t treat friends like that. … His friend Donald Trump is doing his best to create a problem between him and the dark-skinned immigrants here of Rockland.”
Conley has also questioned his work regarding Haitian TPS.
“He can have enough capital to get Donald Trump to fly out here and visit the district in May, to go to Dallas at Trump’s midterm convention and be a keynote speaker, but he can’t get Donald Trump to actually take care of people in the Hudson Valley and protect our Haitian community by extending TPS?” she asked.
When asked how she would advocate for Haitians if she wins — especially since she won’t have Trump’s ear like Lawler does — Conley said she thinks Democrats will win the Senate, clearing the way for the bill to extend TPS to get to the president’s desk.
Lawler has repeatedly bashed Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul’s recent law that ended cooperation between local police departments and Immigration and Customs Enforcement on civil immigration cases, and questioned why the state is not honoring the Department of Homeland Security’s detainer requests, as the agency has stated. The parents of Sheridan Gorman — a teenager from Lawler’s district who was killed earlier this year in Chicago, allegedly by a Venezuelan living in the U.S. illegally — have appeared on the trail with him a handful of times to criticize Democrats’ immigration policies.
“The sanctuary policies being pushed by Kathy Hochul and Democrats killed our daughter,” Jessica Gorman, Sheridan’s mother, said in an advertisement for Lawler. At an event last week, she accused Hochul and Conley of not caring about protecting families.
Hochul has waved off such criticisms, saying that law enforcement is still permitted to work with federal officials to remove violent criminals.
Even if immigration isn’t voters’ top concern, it’s a topic Lawler can own, said Sarah Chamberlain, the head of the Republican Main Street Partnership, of which Lawler is a member. The economy is a harder sell to frustrated voters, she added. Focusing on Hochul’s policy also taps into her middling popularity as she runs for reelection. Hochul’s opponent, Bruce Blakeman, has similarly been hammering the issue.
“He’s been extremely successful finding middle ground on it,” Chamberlain said of Lawler, praising his focus on deporting immigrants who have committed crimes and noting the district’s proximity to New York City. “He uniquely can do it because it’s very specific to his district and to where he lives. Some other members couldn’t be doing it the same way.”
Not everyone is convinced his approach will work.
“Mike Lawler is reading the tea leaves and realizing what we have been saying is true — that the vast majority of Americans across this country and in this state are against Donald Trump’s mass deportation agenda,” said Murad Awawdeh, president and CEO of NYIC Action, the political arm of the nonprofit New York Immigration Coalition. “While he may be doing a couple of vibes-oriented things to illustrate he’s not 100 percent MAGA and mass deportation, his actions actually speak louder than his words.”
Awawdeh said that even though Lawler has made some moves on Haitian TPS, that “doesn’t erase the horrors that he’s cosigned to date” in supporting increased funding for ICE. And while Lawler does back the Dignity Act — the bipartisan immigration reform bill that would create a vehicle for potentially millions of immigrants who entered the country unlawfully to gain work permits and remain in the U.S. legally — some immigrant advocates argue it doesn’t go far enough in creating a pathway to citizenship. The bill has yet to reach the House floor for a vote.
“Immigrant families are not props for his moderate image,” Awawdeh said.
When asked if he thinks his immigration message is getting muddled, Lawler said he has “never wavered in my position” and that most Americans “want the border secure, they want criminals deported and they want cashless bail gone.”
Lawler has sought to cast Conley as too weak on the border and crime, pointing to her support for revoking partnerships between local police and ICE, known as 287(g) agreements.
Conley told Blue Light News she’s in favor of getting rid of those agreements because she wants “our local cops to be focused on protecting our local communities, not doing the federal government’s job.” While she said former President Joe Biden messed up border security, she criticized ICE under Trump for “violence against American citizens” and not “prioritizing violent criminals.” She said she does not support cashless bail, which Lawler has repeatedly pointed to as a catalyst of crime, along with sanctuary policies.
Conley, though, has focused more of her energy on voters’ top concern this cycle: affordability. She said she hears concerns about paying bills and affording gas and health care more frequently on the trail, as opposed to immigration. She accused Lawler of using the issue as a “distraction” to “shift focus away from where he is failing our communities.”
Mike Madrid, a Republican political consultant, said it’s commendable that Lawler is finding balance on the issue but “the problem is no one’s making their voting decision based on this” and it “doesn’t cut through the headwinds on the economy.”
Lawler thinks voters are picking up on the nuance.
“I’ve been leading on this issue for years, saying that the immigration system needs to be reformed,” he told Blue Light News after a recent press conference slamming Hochul’s law. “These things are not in conflict. It’s recognizing how complex our immigration system is, but it’s also having common sense and applying it.”
The Senate could soon be in the market for a new internal cop. Nobody wants the job.
The top two lawmakers on the Senate Ethics Committee are poised to take over other panels next year, depending on the outcome of the midterms. Republican Sen. James Lankford of Oklahoma, the current chair, is in line to potentially lead the Committee on Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs, while the current senior Democrat, Sen. Chris Coons of Delaware, would chair the Foreign Relations Committee if his party flips the chamber.
Asked if he’d want to stay on as Ethics chair, Lankford laughed.
“No one asks to be on the Ethics Committee. No one — you can ask Chris Coons the same thing — no one asks to be on the Ethics Committee,” he said. “You’re asked to be on it and it’s a way of serving your conference.”
Coons was more diplomatic when asked if he wanted to serve on the panel again in any capacity, patting Lankford and himself on the back for their ability to “reach effective, swift, reasonable bipartisan resolutions to complex issues.”
“I enjoy the members of the committee,” he added.
Serving as chair of the Ethics Committee is an unenviable role — requiring lawmakers to lead investigations into allegations of misconduct against their coworkers and, in many cases, their friends.
There are also few rewards for the assignment: Unlike other committee leadership posts, sitting atop Ethics doesn’t provide a fundraising foothold or generate campaign ad-worthy headlines. It leaves little incentive for any lawmaker to take on the task.
“Nobody wants to be chair of the Ethics Committee. Period,” said Sen. Jim Risch of Idaho, the second-most-senior member of the panel who is also expected to continue leading Foreign Relations Republicans. “It’s very difficult when you have matters you have to deal with concerning your friends and colleagues.”
The third-ranking Ethics Committee Republican, Sen. Deb Fischer of Nebraska, noted she’s on tap to become Rules Committee chair next year.
As for whether she’d be willing to lead Ethics, too, she replied, “Deb Fischer is not going to do that.”
Unlike the House Ethics Committee, which has picked up the pace in recent months in holding members accountable, the Senate Ethics Committee has gone through long stretches of public inaction. It has issued just two public rebukes in the past decade: a letter of admonition to former Sen. Bob Menendez (D-N.J.) in 2018, and one to the late Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) in 2023. Aside from those instances, one would have to go all the way back to 2012 to find the next most recent public disciplinary action.
When Menendez was found by the panel to have improperly received gifts from a friend — then used his position of power to advance that person’s interests following a mistrial in his federal bribery case — the committee wrote him a letter of admonition requiring him to repay the gifts.
Menendez went on to be convicted in a subsequent federal corruption case on charges of bribery and acting as a foreign agent, resulting in an 11-year prison sentence.
The Senate Ethics Committee slapped Graham with an admonishment in 2023 for “impermissibly conducted campaign activity in a federal building.”
Neither Senate Majority Leader John Thune nor Minority Leader Chuck Schumer — who are both focused on the Nov. 3 midterms — have spoken publicly about who they might put atop the Ethics panel if they find themselves needing a new chair.
There are also some unknowns. For Lankford to take over Homeland Security, for instance, current Chair Rand Paul of Kentucky would need to first decide whether to decamp for the Health, Education, Labor and Pensions Committee, where Louisiana Sen. Bill Cassidy’s retirement will leave an opening.
Given the Ethics Committee’s distinction as a “select” panel, Senate leaders have more leeway over who they tap for a chair position, especially if they run into hurdles finding someone willing to take it.
It’s rare, but not unheard of, for a senator to lead both the Ethics Committee and a “standing” committee simultaneously. It’s happened on three occasions since the committee was given its name in 1977, according to data compiled by the Congressional Research Service and the Senate Historical Office.
That means Lankford or Coons could end up being asked to continue in their roles, even if they are also chairing another panel. If not, Senate leaders could struggle to find a replacement further down the committee rosterr, which would force them to bring in a senator not currently on the panel.
Democrats already need to recruit at least one new member to the panel: Sen. Jeanne Shaheen of New Hampshire is not returning for the next Congress, and Sen. Brian Schatz of Hawaii is expected to succeed outgoing Sen. Dick Durbin in the caucus’s No. 2 leadership spot.
As for Republicans, Risch said he’ll pass.
He burst into laughter and said he was confused why someone would ask if he wanted to serve as chair.
Sen. Bernie Moreno said Thursday he expects the Senate to move a party-line legislative package after the midterm elections — especially if Democrats flip one or both chambers.
“We will do a reconciliation bill — one way or the other we will,” the Ohio Republican told reporters at the Capitol, referring to the simple-majority budget process. “Obviously, if we lose control of Congress, it’ll be the Last Supper.”
Such a bill, he added, would be “giant” and would include “all the Republican priorities that we can get done.”
The House approved a framework for a party-line bill over the summer that includes war funding, farm aid and election integrity incentives. But the push has so far run aground in the Senate
Moreno said the threat of imminent Democratic control of either the House or Senate would jumpstart matters — and potentially push Republicans to include a debt-ceiling increase as well.
The borrowing limit is set to be reached sometime next year, and a Democratic majority could have significant leverage to demand concessions as part of any deal — something the GOP could forestall by acting in the lame-duck session.
“I mean, nobody wants to see a debt default,” Moreno said. “That would be 1929 on steroids.”
Rep. Rob Wittman (R-Va.) also told reporters on Capitol Hill that a new reconciliation bill “has to happen” after the election but warned against expanding the scope of the House framework.
“I think you have to go with the one that we’ve got,” he told reporters. “The Senate needs to act and get the job done.”
A senior member of the Armed Services Committee, Wittman said the legislation is “key to restock our weapons magazine” and “should be the main focus when [members] get back.”
Moreno said if Democrats win control of both chambers, Republicans should stay in session nonstop to pass GOP legislation — which could be a tall order given worries about poor post-election attendance.
“If we lose the House and the Senate, we should be here from Nov. 9 until Dec. 31 with no break at all,” Moreno said. “Like, we’ll have turkeys here for Thanksgiving because we have to get this done.”
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