WASHINGTON (AP) — White House economists estimate that President Donald Trump’s deals with pharmaceutical companies to drop some of their U.S. prescription drug prices to what they charge in other countries could save $529 billion over the next 10 years.

The analysis obtained by The Associated Press includes the first economy-wide projections behind a policy at the core of Trump’s pitch to voters going into November’s midterm elections for control of the House and Senate. Democratic lawmakers have been doubtful about the savings claimed by Trump and these new numbers are likely to trigger additional questions about the data.

Cost-of-living issues are at the forefront of voters’ concerns and higher energy prices tied to the Iran war have deepened the public’s anxiety. Trump has tried in part to address affordability concerns by focusing on his efforts to cut deals with companies so that the cost of prescription drugs in the U.S. would no longer be dramatically higher than in other affluent nations.

“Now you have the lowest drug prices anywhere in the world,” Trump said at a Friday rally before a crowd of seniors in Florida. “And that alone should win us the midterms.”

The analysis was done by administration officials for the White House Council of Economic Advisers. They also estimated that federal and state governments could save a combined $64.3 billion on Medicaid during the next decade because of what Trump calls his “most favored nation” policy on drug prices.

Few of the details of the deals struck by the Trump administration and 17 leading pharmaceutical companies have been made public, making it hard to independently verify the projected savings. The White House analysis sought to estimate the prospective savings as more medications come onto the market and fall under Trump’s framework — with one model in the report tallying the possible savings at $733 billion over a decade.

Trump and his Department of Health and Human Services have touted his drug-pricing deals as transformative and urged Congress to codify their principles into law. Democratic lawmakers have challenged the administration’s claims of savings. Senate Finance Committee Ranking Member Ron Wyden, D-Ore., and 17 Senate Democrats in April proposed a measure requiring the administration to disclose the terms of the agreements signed by pharmaceutical companies.

“If these deals are so great, why is the Trump administration afraid of showing them to the public?” Wyden said when announcing the measure. Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. said his team would share details that didn’t include proprietary information or trade secrets.

The potential savings estimated by the Trump administration would be substantial as Americans spent $467 billion on prescription drugs in 2024, according to the most recent government data available. The analysis is premised on the idea that foreign countries would also pay more for their prescription drugs, which would diversify drugmakers’ sources of revenue and preserve their ability to innovate with new treatments.

The Congressional Budget Office in October 2024 estimated that a plan similar to what Trump ended up adopting could reduce prescription drug prices by more than 5%, though the decrease “would probably diminish over time as manufacturers adjusted to the new policy by altering prices or distribution of drugs in other countries.”

The scope of the savings claimed by the Trump administration are likely to intensify the scrutiny by Democrats, who counter that any price reductions would be offset by higher costs for prescription drugs not covered by the “most favored nation” framework. One of their main critiques is that pharmaceutical companies have increased their profit margins while working with the administration.

In April, staff working for Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., released an analysis that looked at 15 of the companies that have agreed to this drug-pricing plan and found that their combined profits jumped 66% over the past year to $177 billion. The report noted that the tax cuts Trump signed into law last year “exempted or delayed many of the most expensive drugs” from price negotiations with Medicare.

The Trump administration has countered that they consider Sanders’ critique to be flawed, saying that it’s based on the list prices for pharmaceutical drugs instead the actual price that patients pay.

DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP) — U.S. President Donald Trump said Tuesday evening he was pausing the U.S. effort to guide stranded vessels out of the Strait of Hormuz to allow time for a deal to end the Iran wasbut that the American forces’ blockade of Iranian ports would remain in place.

Meanwhile, Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi met with his Chinese counterpart, Wang Yi, in Beijing on Wednesday morning, the official Xinhua news agency reported, without providing further details.

It was the first time since the start of the war that Araghchi has traveled to China, whose close economic and political ties to Tehran give it a unique position of influence.

Earlier in Washington, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio had expressed hope that Beijing would reiterate to Tehran the need to release its chokehold on the strait, which is a vital waterway for global energy.

Iran’s effective closure of the strait, through which major oil and gas supplies passed before the war, along with fertilizer and other petroleum productshas sent fuel prices skyrocketing and rattled the global economy. Breaking Iran’s grip would deny its main source of leverage as Trump demands a major rollback of Tehran’s disputed nuclear program.

US to pause latest efforts to reopen the Strait of Hormuz

Trump announced the decision in a social media post, saying the latest effort — which started Monday — would pause for a short period to see whether an agreement with Tehran on ending the war in the Middle East could be finalized.

Trump said the move was based “on the request of Pakistan and other Countries, the tremendous Military Success that we have had during the Campaign against the Country of Iran and, additionally, the fact that Great Progress has been made toward a Complete and Final Agreement with Representatives of Iran.”

The White House did not respond to a request for comment or further detail on the progress in negotiations that Trump mentioned. They had appeared to have largely stalled in the conflict that started Feb. 28 when the United States and Israel launched strikes against Iran.

US officials say ceasefire is holding, despite attacks on UAE

The United Arab Emirates, a key U.S. ally in the Persian Gulf, said it came under attack from Iranian drones and missiles for a second day Tuesday.

But U.S. military leaders and Rubio insisted the nearly month-old ceasefire was still holding and that — while the conflict is not resolved — the initial major U.S. military operation against Iran has concluded.

Before the Trump announcement, Rubio told a White House press briefing that for peace to be achieved, Iran must agree to Trump’s demands on its nuclear program and also agree to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

“We would prefer the path of peace,” Rubio said.

Rubio also described the day-old U.S. push to reopen the strait to maritime traffic as a defensive operation, aimed at helping thousands of civilian sailors stranded there by the war.

“They’re sitting ducks, they’re isolated, they’re starving, they’re vulnerable,” Rubio said. “At least 10 sailors have already died as a result.”

On Monday, the U.S. said it had opened a lane and sunk six small Iranian boats that had threatened commercial ships. So far, only two merchant ships are known to have passed through the new U.S.-guarded route, with hundreds more bottled up in the Persian Gulf.

Iran says the new US effort violates ceasefire

U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and Gen. Dan Caine, the U.S. military’s top officer, told a news conference that Iran’s renewed attacks had not reached the threshold of what Caine called “major combat operations.” He said Tuesday was a “quieter” day in the strait.

At the White House, Rubio said clashes with Iran related to American efforts to reopen the straight were “defensive in nature.”

“There’s no shooting unless we’re shot at first, OK?” Rubio said. “We’re not attacking them.”

Iran’s parliament speaker and chief negotiator, Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf, signaled that Iran has yet to fully respond to the U.S. attempt to reopen the waterway.

“We know full well that the continuation of the status quo is intolerable for America; while we have not even begun yet,” he said in a post on X. His statement did not mention negotiations with the U.S. that are now in the form of passing messages via Pakistan.

Disputing Washington’s claim of sinking six Iranian boats, an Iranian military commander said two small civilian cargo boats were hit Monday, killing five civilians, Iran’s state TV reported.

Caine, the top U.S. general who serves as chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said more than 100 U.S. military aircraft are patrolling the skies over the strait. The U.S. has imposed a naval blockade on Iranian ports since April 13, depriving Tehran of oil revenue it needs to shore up its ailing economy.

The Trump administration has cited the April 8 ceasefire in asserting that the president does not have to give a formal update to Congress on the war under the War Powers Resolution. That law typically requires presidents to seek formal approval from Congress for war activities 60 days after beginning military action.

Shippers remain wary

So far, just two civilian vessels, both U.S.-flagged merchant ships, are known to have passed through the strait as part of the lane the U.S. says it has created. Shipping company Maersk said one of them, a vehicle carrier that it operates, exited the strait safely Monday with U.S. military assistance.

Former military officers who have served on the strait have said opening the waterway that is just 21 miles (34 kilometers) wide would be dangerous and highly challengingeven with military escorts, which the U.S. is not providing now.

Hapag-Lloyd AG, one of the world’s largest container shipping companies, said in a statement that its risk assessment “remains unchanged” and that transits through the strait “are for the moment not possible for our ships.”

Iran has attacked ships that try to transit without going through its own route in the northern part of the strait along the Iranian coastline. That involves being vetted by Iran’s Revolutionary Guard and in some cases making a payment.

The U.S.-approved route goes through territorial waters of Oman to the south.

The UAE bore the brunt of Iran’s retaliation

The UAE’s Defense Ministry said it was responding to another Iranian drone and missile attack on Tuesday, though there were no reports of damage or casualties. A day earlier, it said Emirati air defenses had engaged 15 missiles and four drones from Iran, one of which sparked a fire at a key oil facility, wounding three Indian nationals.

The British military reported two cargo vessels ablaze off the UAE, also on Monday. On Tuesday, it reported that a cargo vessel in the strait had been struck by an “unknown projectile,” without further details.

Iran denied striking the UAE “in recent days,” according to a statement by Ebrahim Zolfaghari, a spokesman for Iran’s joint military command, that was read Tuesday on state TV.

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Madhani and Finley reported from Washington, and Becatoros reported from Athens, Greece. Associated Press writers E. Eduardo Castillo in Beijing; Farnoush Amiri at the United Nations; Collin Binkley and Matthew Lee in Washington; Giovanna Dell’Orto in Minneapolis; Sally Abou AlJoud in Beirut; Sheikh Saaliq in New Delhi; Meg Kinnard in Columbia, South Carolina; Bill Barrow in Atlanta; David McHugh in Frankfurt, Germany; and Russ Bynum in Savannah, Georgia, contributed to this report.