Politics
Dems brace for a close finish on Virginia redistricting effort
Democrats hope gerrymandering Virginia will give them the edge they need to win back the House. But Tuesday’s special election is proving more competitive than they’d like.
Tight polling and concerns over voter turnout in an atypical April election have many Democratic party strategists and officials preparing for a close finish.
“I always thought this campaign would be close [and] 24 hours out, I believe that to be the case,” Democratic strategist Jared Leopold said on Monday, before the final day of voting.
“Anytime you’re on the ‘yes’ side of a referendum, you’ve got the burden of proof,” he added. “It doesn’t matter what the referendum is, but anytime you’re arguing for ‘yes,’ the other side is going to be arguing for the status quo.”
The party anticipated its campaign to redraw the state’s congressional maps would be boosted by its massive war chest and a favorable political environment that helped elect Gov. Abigail Spanberger last November. If approved, the aggressive partisan gerrymander could deliver Democrats a 10-to-1 seat advantage in Virginia, which amounts to a net pickup of as many as four House seats.
“I think it was always going to be close,” said another Democratic strategist, granted anonymity to speak candidly. “One side is giving [President Donald Trump] power and the other side is doing a reform that a lot of them don’t really want to do. That’s your choice.”
The election will serve as a test of whether voters in the light blue state will set aside long-standing distaste for partisan gerrymandering to counter a redistricting fight set in motion by Trump last year. With primary elections already underway, this is one of Democrats’ last shots at offsetting or even overcoming the gains Republicans made in Texas and elsewhere before November.
If the ballot referendum fails, it would be an early embarrassment for Spanberger as governor and a high-profile loss for a Democratic Party that has cast Trump’s efforts in existential terms as “election rigging” that undermines American democracy.
The campaigns have drawn heavyweight national involvement from former President Barack Obama and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, among others, who have campaigned on behalf of Virginians for Fair Elections, which is leading the “yes” effort. On the Republican side, former Gov. Glenn Youngkin has been a vocal critic of the measure. And, after largely staying on the sidelines, Trump made a late push Monday night for the “no” campaign, joining Speaker Mike Johnson for a tele-rally where he sought to remind voters of the stakes.
“Tomorrow, your commonwealth has an incredible, and really, an important election in every sense of the word that will have major consequences for our entire country this November,” Trump said. “This is really a country election. The whole country is watching.”
Public polling suggests the race will hinge as much on persuading voters about the need for new maps as on mobilizing them to the polls for an out-of-cycle election.
A Washington Post-Schar School poll conducted last month shows the “yes” campaign leading by roughly five percentage points among likely voters. That same poll found Republicans are slightly more likely than Democrats to say they planned to vote in the special election or already had — 85 percent to 79 percent.
Many Democrats say they remain cautiously optimistic. There has been an uptick of early voting in recent days, particularly in counties in Northern Virginia, which tend to be blue-leaning. Overall, more than 1.3 million people cast early ballots, according to the Virginia Public Access Project, not much lower than the roughly 1.48 million who cast early ballots in 2025, when Spanberger was running.
“I don’t think there’s been an alteration to whether or not people like gerrymandering,” said John Bisognano, president of the National Democratic Redistricting Committee. “What I do think is, if this is the only way that we can keep the U.S. House of Representatives as a representative body for this nation, people are willing to do it.”
Virginia Democrats have also recently put pressure on the governor to more aggressively campaign on behalf of the “yes” effort and be more outspoken about the stakes of the special election. She was on the campaign trail over the weekend urging voters to back the measure.
“Ultimately, I do think this is more of a persuasion election than a turnout election, and so it’s a test to see if [the] ‘no’ campaign has done an effective job reaching voters,” said Noah Jennings, a Virginia-based Republican strategist unaffiliated with the “no” campaign.
Complicating Democrats’ pitch are two factors: The Virginia Supreme Court could still nullify the redistricting effort after the April election. And, in 2020, voters approved a constitutional amendment that established a bipartisan redistricting commission seeking to limit the partisan redrawing of maps.
That history has given the “no” campaign a potent line of attack.
Conservatives have painted Spanberger as a flip-flopper on redistricting and slammed her for caving to pressure from national Democrats. GOP-aligned groups have also sent out misleading mailers or run ads using past comments opposing gerrymandering to suggest that both she and Obama are “no” votes on the ballot measure.
“The Democrats have deployed over $60 million to rig Virginia’s congressional maps and yet the referendum is extremely close — as all sides acknowledge,” said Mike Young, of Virginians for Fair Maps, the group encouraging voters to vote against redistricting. “That didn’t happen by accident or dumb luck.”
Jennings said if the “no” effort wins on Tuesday, “that’s a very clear showing that there’s a line that you cannot cross.”
“Virginia does have that larger middle that does move independently, and I think those people don’t like the gamesmanship, and they don’t like it from either side,” he said.
The “yes” campaign says it’s unfazed.
“While Republicans have spent nearly $34 million flooding this race with MAGA misinformation, the YES Campaign has been doing the work — knocking over 600,000 doors, communicating directly with Virginians, organizing in every corner of the state, and driving historic early vote turnout,” said Dan Gottlieb, a spokesperson for Virginians for Fair Elections.
The outcome of Tuesday’s election could reverberate well past Virginia. After Trump pushed to redraw congressional boundaries in Texas last year, the fight escalated into a tit-for-tat battle, with each party trying to lock in an advantage ahead of November.
In California last year, voters overwhelmingly approved new congressional districts, offsetting GOP gains out of Texas. Florida could redraw its own maps as soon as next week, which could counter any Democratic gains in Virginia — should the ballot measure pass.
Ted Cruz on his 2028 lane, JD Vance and the GOP’s future
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DALLAS — Top Republican lawmakers had no idea President Donald Trump was going to promise $5,000 checks to every adult American so long as his party keeps control of Congress. Now, they’re grappling with how to handle the fallout.
GOP leaders have privately pushed back on similar Trump promises of giving money to Americans in the past year, according to four people granted anonymity to share details of closed-door meetings. Senior Republicans on Capitol Hill were blindsided by Trump’s Wednesday night announcement in Dallas, and are trying to manage lawmakers’ and voters’ expectations about a trillion-dollar-plus proposal they cannot deliver.
“The only thing that I knew of was that he has this concept of a dividend of all Americans being able to share in the success of America,” House Majority Whip Tom Emmer, who appeared supportive of the idea, said in an interview on the sidelines of the party’s midterm convention. “But last night, no, I was just like you and everybody else when I went, ‘Oh, that’s interesting. Okay.’”
NRCC Chair Richard Hudson added in an interview: “First, I’d heard of it, so I want to talk to him and get some details before I comment.” Hudson said the idea was “exciting,” but he didn’t indicate the House GOP campaign arm would start touting the idea in ads for battleground candidates.
As for the chances of the measure passing Congress, Hudson responded: “Not this Congress. Because Democrats in the Senate will never go through with it.”
Republican leaders, indeed, don’t have the votes to pass such an offer this year, with some in the party questioning the legality of Trump effectively declaring he would pay for votes. GOP fiscal hawks and others also quickly shot it down.
And some Republicans worry Trump’s last-ditch move steps on their carefully laid messaging about the economic benefits of their major tax cuts package — benefits which have largely been erased by the Iran war and tariffs, according to five senior Republicans, who were also granted anonymity to speak candidly.
“It seems incredibly desperate,” said one of the House Republicans.
“I see zero chance of this happening,” said another House Republican at the convention.
The scramble to figure out their position — and how serious Trump is — comes at a critical final stretch of the midterms and as many voters grow increasingly skeptical of the GOP’s record on the economy.
Democrats were quick to slam Trump’s announcement as a way to bribe Americans and distract from an unpopular trade agenda and war in the Middle East. And as Republicans gathered in Dallas for their splashy midterm convention, the emerging splits over the dividends were on full display.
GOP lawmakers have privately noted a clear divide in the messaging around Trump’s promise of $5,000 checks: The White House and Trump’s campaign social media accounts are wholeheartedly touting the idea. GOP House and Senate campaign arms, meanwhile, are not. The NRSC declined to comment on the proposal.
Vice President JD Vance defended Trump’s offer on Fox News shortly after the president announced it Wednesday night, saying it was intended to boost “the American middle class.” But Vance did not mention the Trump proposal during a closed-door breakfast with GOP lawmakers, state party officials and activists from key battleground states on Thursday morning, instead touting a string of GOP economic achievements like Trump’s executive action that aims to lower prescription drug costs and the GOP tax cuts package.
“I think we’re all looking forward to learning more,” said Rep. Bryan Steil (R-Wis.) as he left the closed-door breakfast with Vance.
Asked if he would support Trump’s proposal, Steil repeated, “I think we’re all looking forward to learning more.”
While Republicans scramble to figure out how to position themselves on the “dividend” pledge, Trump told CBS on Thursday he doesn’t think he needs Congress to approve his plan to send out payments.
Amy Natoce, a spokesperson for Ohio GOP Sen. Jon Husted, who faces a tough battle for reelection this fall, said his team “has reached out to the White House to learn more about the proposal and how it would work.” Natoce noted that “putting money directly back into the pockets of hardworking Ohioans is in line with Jon Husted’s priorities.”
Some Republicans were willing to more fully embrace the idea.
Texas Sen. Ted Cruz said Wednesday that it was “an incentive for work” — even though the money will go to all Americans regardless of employment status. Ohio Sen. Bernie Moreno pledged to draft up a bill on the checks “so that we can get the Trump Dividend passed immediately after the November 3rd election.” Kansas Sen. Roger Marshall, who’s facing a surprisingly competitive race, eagerly asked his social media followers to “comment how you will spend your $5,000 Trump Dividend when Republicans win in November.”
Fiscal hawks say they are eager for information. Rep. Glenn Grothman (R-Wis.), who serves on the House Budget Committee, declined to say whether he would support the president’s proposal which could cost more than $1 trillion.
“I would like to know how they would plan to pay for … back of envelope … well over $1 trillion,” Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas) said in an interview Wednesday night shortly after Trump announced the proposal.
Trump has promised a litany of dividends and checks to Americans in recent years that have never materialized.
He raised the idea of direct checks to Americans in private meetings with GOP leaders before, often with money he says are from tariffs or the DOGE cuts. It’s an idea that Trump and some close White House advisers have discussed on and off for extended periods of time, particularly during his second term.
Each time, GOP leaders on Capitol Hill have argued that such an idea wouldn’t have the votes among Republicans given the price tag — and that it would likely require Congress to codify Trump’s controversial tariffs into law.
In December, Trump sent a $1,776 check to all members of the military, a move he referred back to while unveiling the dividend plan Wednesday. And he quickly followed up on Thursday with a separate offer to send money to Americans: $500 rebate checks to about 1 million Obamacare enrollees in 30 states.
Democrats immediately pounced on the latest proposal, including several candidates locked in competitive November races.
“Is this some kind of sick joke? Donald Trump’s policies are costing us more than [$5,000] — from his illegal war in Iran and his trade wars — and this dividend is nothing but a lie that wouldn’t even begin to make up for what he’s costing us,” Michigan Democratic Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed said in a statement to Blue Light News.
A spokesperson for El-Sayed’s opponent, Mike Rogers, did not respond to a request for comment on the proposal. He also declined questions from reporters at the Dallas convention Thursday.
So far Democratic leaders have been dismissive of the idea.
Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer called the dividends a “bribe” to Americans and said they demonstrate Trump’s weak political position.
“Trump just talks out of who knows what,” he told reporters Thursday in New York City.
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and House Majority PAC did not indicate that they planned to include the dividends in messaging to voters.
Emmer dismissed the criticism that the checks were a bribe, saying Trump wanted Americans “to share in the success” of the country.
He acknowledged it’s unlikely the House takes up such a bill before the midterms, given there is no proposal drafted yet and only one week of session scheduled before November, but expressed confidence the GOP could deliver on Trump’s promise after the election.
“Let the policy guys draft it. Let them debate it. Let them move it through committee,” Emmer said. “You get it to the whip’s office. We’ll pass it.”
Kamala Harris will campaign with Sen. Jon Ossoff in Georgia and headline a fundraising dinner hosted by Fulton County Democrats next month, marking her latest involvement in the midterm elections.
Harris is also slated to join Nevada attorney general and gubernatorial candidate Aaron Ford next month in Las Vegas and campaign with Democratic challengers in two competitive House races in her home state.
“It is critical for Democrats to win this November so we can fight the Trump administration’s corruption and work to lower costs for the American people,” a Harris spokesperson said in a statement. “Vice President Harris will continue to do whatever is needed to support candidates in races where she can be helpful.”
The events in Georgia were first reported by CNN. Harris will also be the keynote speaker at the fundraising dinner on Oct. 30 in Atlanta. An Ossoff campaign spokesperson confirmed his plan to campaign with Harris. Ossoff’s campaign previously told Blue Light News that it would welcome Harris to Georgia to stump with or on behalf of the senator.
Still, the announcements come as some Democrats have been keeping distance from the party’s last presidential nominee.
In Iowa, where Democrats are hoping to flip a Senate seat and retake the governor’s mansion in a state where Harris lost by 13 points in 2024, the two candidates both declined to have Harris’ help. So did Mary Peltola, the Democratic Senate candidate in Alaska who “isn’t seeking endorsements from anyone from the Lower 48,” and House candidates in some red states and rural districts.
For her part, Harris has skirted the question of whether she will run again in 2028 and said she is focusing on the midterm elections.
“Right now midterms [are] full-time occupying my thoughts, my mind and my work,” Harris said in a recent podcast episode with Megan Rapinoe on Vox Media. “I’m spending full time working on doing everything I can to help people restore some balance in our government, which is through the midterms, winning back Congress, the House and the Senate.”
“I haven’t decided. But honestly, from my perspective, ’28 doesn’t matter if we don’t win ’26,” she said to a question on another presidential bid.
- Ted Cruz on his 2028 lane, JD Vance and the GOP’s future
- How Republicans are privately talking about their Senate map at the convention
- GOP leaders blindsided by Trump’s promise of $5K checks
- House will vote on legislation shielding consumers from data center energy costs
- Tom Emmer has a message for House GOP chairs: Term limits matter
- Trump to give $500 refunds to nearly 1 million Obamacare customers
- Hawley presses OpenAI over ‘rogue’ Hugging Face hack
- Boozman set to hold another committee farm bill vote next week
- Kamala Harris to campaign with Ossoff in Georgia
- ‘Aggressive’ Medicaid crackdowns will hurt children with autism, providers warn
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