Minnesota has been the white whale for Republicans in the Trump era. And 2026 could be the year they finally break through — if President Donald Trump and one of the most prolific peddlers of conspiracy theories about the 2020 election don’t sink their chances.

Republicans are growing optimistic about their chances of unseating Democratic Gov. Tim Walz next year, as he seeks a historic third term. But Trump’s increasingly caustic attacks on Walz and disparagement of Minnesota’s Somali community — and MyPillow CEO Mike Lindell’s entrance into the gubernatorial race — could hurt Republicans’ chances of regaining ground in the state, some party strategists argue.

“When the president comes in with a flamethrower and just throws that type of rhetoric, there’s no oxygen, and there’s no space for the Republican to offer suggestions and to be thoughtful in that space, because the rhetoric of the president just paints them into a corner,” said Michael Brodkorb, a former deputy chair of the Minnesota GOP who backed the Democratic ticket in 2024.

Republicans have insisted they can be competitive statewide in the blue-leaning Minnesota ever since Trump lost Minnesota by less than 2 points in 2016. But since then, winning the state has beguiled both the president — who faced a 7-point loss in 2020 and a 4-point loss in 2024 — and Republicans in other statewide races, including two fairly comfortable wins for Walz in 2018 and 2022.

Still, Republicans see an opportunity to win back the Minnesota governor’s seat for the first time since 2006 by hammering Walz, who is running despite scrutiny into his oversight of state benefits and a star turn as the Democratic vice presidential nominee that put him in the crosshairs of Republicans across the country.

At the same time, Trump has also used the arrests of some Somali immigrants in federal fraud cases to broadly characterize the state’s Somali population as criminals — leaning on his trademark use of divisive rhetoric that some Republicans worry will fall flat.

That risk, insiders warn, could be exacerbated if Lindell, a Trump ally, wins the Republican nomination.

“We’d be cooked,” said Dustin Grage, a Minnesota Republican strategist. “I’d be moving to Florida very shortly. We would lose pretty badly if Mike Lindell were to get the nomination.”

Those close to the president strenuously disagree, arguing the state remains on the map. House GOP Whip Tom Emmer, the most high-profile Minnesota Republican and an ally of the president, said he’s spoken to Trump about the governor’s race and is confident that any of the 13 Republicans seeking the party’s nomination could defeat Walz.

“We should be able to beat Tim Walz with a dog,” Emmer told Blue Light News in an interview.

The White House declined to comment. At a rally in North Carolina on Friday, Trump praised Lindell and said he “deserves to be the governor of Minnesota.”

Walz faces a tricky path to reelection, with no Minnesota governor winning three consecutive terms in the state’s history. That’s been made more difficult by several investigations during his tenure leading the state that revealed a ring of alleged fraudsters siphoning money from public programs. In 2022, federal prosecutors charged dozens of people for pocketing $250 million from a federally funded child nutrition program overseen by the Minnesota Department of Education during the Covid-19 pandemic.

The massive scope of the fraud allegations (the Justice Department called it the “largest Covid-19 fraud scheme in the United States”) triggered a state audit that found the Walz administration “did not effectively exercise its authority” to prevent the fraud.

In September, federal prosecutors charged eight people with defrauding a Minnesota housing and health benefits program of millions of dollars by submitting inflated and fake reimbursement claims. Six additional people were charged for participating in the scheme in December. That same month, a defendant previously charged in the pandemic program fraud pleaded guilty to attempting to steal $14 million from a Minnesota health care program that offers services to children with autism.

Prosecutors have broadened their inquiry into benefits fraud in the state to investigate billions of dollars in flagged billings of 14 public programs supported by Medicaid.

In response to a request for comment to a Walz spokesperson, Minnesota Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party Chair Richard Carlbom said in a statement that Walz “heads into reelection with a record focused squarely on working people and kitchen-table issues.”

“While the GOP clown-car primary remains consumed by infighting and loyalty tests for Donald Trump, Minnesota families are falling behind as Republicans unleash higher grocery prices, skyrocketing health care bills, and giant tax breaks for billionaires,” Carlbom said. “Minnesotans see the difference — a governor delivering for working families, or Republicans delivering loyalty to Donald Trump and a Washington agenda that puts billionaires first.”

In recent weeks, Trump has ramped up his efforts to link Walz to the abuse of government programs — while using incendiary rhetoric directed at the governor and the Somali community. In a social media post on Thanksgiving, he called Walz “seriously retarded” and accused Somali refugees of seeking to “prey” on Minnesotans. And at an early December rally in Pennsylvania, he again denigrated the Somali community while discussing “the great big Minnesota scam with one of the dumbest governors ever in history.”

Emmer, who said he spoke with Trump about the governor’s race as early as July, said he believes the president recognizes an opportunity in Walz’s vulnerability. “I think the president knows that Tim Walz is the weakest he’s ever been in his political career,” Emmer said.

Former Minnesota House Speaker Kurt Daudt, a Republican, said the fraud investigations are part of the risk for Walz in seeking a third consecutive term.

“If you can lay out a case that, ‘Well, you’ve been elected now for eight years, and you haven’t fixed these problems,’ or ‘You haven’t accomplished what you said you were going to’ … it kind of makes it an easier case to say, ‘Maybe it’s time for someone new,’” Daudt said.

But the rhetoric Trump is using to highlight the fraud may reframe the issue to the detriment of Walz’s Republican opponent, said Brodkorb,the former party official. He believes Minnesotans are eager to weigh ideas on immigration policy and how to tackle abuse of public programs.

“The problem is when the president comes in and says things like, ‘Everyone in the entire Somali community is garbage,’” Brodkorb said.

Emmer, who adamantly defended Trump’s approach and his rhetoric attacking both Walz and the Somali community, credited him with shining a light on the state.

“If he hadn’t said it exactly the way it is, and if he hadn’t been so out there direct, guess what? Nobody would have covered it,” Emmer said.

The barrage directed at Walz and the state — including attacks from Trump allies, targeted probes from Cabinet officials and an immigration crackdown in Minneapolis — underscores the governor’s newfound national prominence since campaigning as former Vice President Kamala Harris’ running mate in last year’s presidential race.

Walz has emerged as a vocal critic of the second Trump administration, prompting a feud between the two. After a Democratic lawmaker was killed by a gunman and a second was seriously injured earlier this year, Trump said he would not “waste time” calling the “whacked out” governor.

Walz’s growing national profile both makes him a high-profile target in the 2026 midterms worthy of trying to defeat, GOP strategists say — but Trump’s intense focus on the race could also backfire given the state’s political makeup.

“Having Donald Trump being active in the race for a particular Republican may not be helpful, but it would be extremely helpful to raise the attention on Tim Walz and his record here in the state,” Daudt said.

And if Trump’s ends up throwing his weight behind Lindell — who conspired with Trump in 2020 to advance false claims that the presidential election was stolen — Republicans worry that could give Walz a clearer path to reelection.

“If [Lindell] is the candidate, that’s what the election will be about,” Daudt said. “It’ll definitely be easier for Walz to make the election about Trump if Mike Lindell is the candidate. No question.”

Trump, who continues to claim the 2020 election was rigged, touted Lindell’s efforts to reverse the election results at the North Carolina rally, and empathized with how Lindell “suffered” as a result.

“He was just a guy that said, ’This election was so crooked, it was so rigged.’ He fought like hell,” Trump told his supporters.

Lindell’s campaign did not respond to requests for comment.

Some Minnesota Republicans hope that the party will back a more moderate candidate that can highlight Walz’s vulnerabilities.

But Emmer said candidates should do what they can to win the endorsement of the hundreds of highly engaged party activists who serve as delegates at the party’s nominating convention next year.

“I’m going to tell you the way you win this race. You go run your race to get an endorsement,” Emmer said. “As soon as you are the endorsed Republican candidate, you have won the primary in August, you are going to win the governor’s race.”