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Capitol agenda: House GOP at the Obamacare cliff

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House Republicans are set to mark their final session week of 2025 with a muddled health care message that’s poised to have a big impact — a nationwide spike in insurance costs after Obamacare subsidies expire in less than three weeks.

— The plan: GOP leaders are eyeing a Wednesday vote on a package of conservative-friendly health policies they released last Friday (Pro subscribers can read more of the specifics here).

The proposal — a narrowly-focused attempt at striking consensus in a divided GOP conference — doesn’t include an extension of Affordable Care Act tax credits that lapse on Dec. 31. Instead, leadership is expected to throw a bone to anxious rank-and-file members by giving them the chance to vote on an amendment that would continue the subsidies — a vote that’s almost guaranteed to fail.

“I expect people are going to have an opportunity to vote their conscience and then go defend their votes back home like we always do,” House Budget Chair Jodey Arrington (R-Texas) said.

— Mods scramble: Moderate Republicans in the House and Senate are privately strategizing about how to pull off an unlikely last-minute deal to avert a health care price shock that could have big ramifications for the midterms. A number of vulnerable Republicans have argued they will lose their seats if the ACA subsidies aren’t extended.

The Obamacare amendment that GOP moderates are set to offer this week is expected to be a two-year extension of the subsidies with an income cap and other changes — a plan modeled after a proposal from Reps. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-Pa.) and Jared Golden (D-Maine).

House Democratic leaders are waiting to see what the final amendment looks like. They could try to tank the bill by helping adopt the amendment, though many Democrats have criticized the Fitzpatrick-Golden plan.

— More unhappy campers: Key GOP hard-liners are upset that Republican leaders are allowing an ACA vote at all, and they know they have leverage. They’re pushing for more restrictive language in the Obamacare amendment and want commitments on conservative policy wins in health legislation early next year, in exchange for letting the bill proceed. To shore up support with conservatives, GOP leaders are pairing the health care package with two bills that would limit transgender surgeries for minors.

— Why it matters for the midterms: This week’s vote is clear evidence that the GOP is struggling to define an easily digestible message on health care costs heading into next year’s elections, as Democrats stay mostly unified around extending the ACA subsidies.

Every Senate Democrat voted to advance an Obamacare tax credit extension last week, and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries has managed to keep most of his members from endorsing compromise proposals from purple-district Republicans.

House GOP leaders have been unwilling to rethink a 15-year-old party message that Obamacare is a costly disaster, despite growing anxiety from their members about the electoral consequences.

The saga has left many House Republicans frustrated even if they share concerns about the cost of the subsidies and the legacy of the ACA.

“A lot of people are receiving this health care — they don’t need the rug pulled out from under them,” Rep. Dan Meuser (R-Pa.) told Blue Light News last week. “Definitely should have been done a ways back, we could say, because of the shutdown. But we’ve got to do everything we can and then do more.”

“I don’t see how we just leave things in limbo.”

What else we’re watching:   

— House to take up permitting: House GOP leaders are eyeing a Thursday morning vote on bipartisan legislation that would aim to speed up energy project permitting. Republicans are working to shore up their votes, with resistant hard-liners arguing the bill would undermine President Donald Trump’s authority to block offshore wind energy projects.

— Thune’s busy week: Senate Majority Leader John Thune is looking to wrap the NDAA and confirm dozens of nominees before Congress leaves town for the holidays. Potential bonus items include some appropriations action and a war powers vote.

Meredith Lee Hill, Jordain Carney, Nicholas Wu and Josh Siegel contributed to this report. 

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Congress

Mike Johnson says House can end government shutdown ‘by Tuesday’

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House Speaker Mike Johnson said he is confident Congress can end the partial government shutdown “by Tuesday” despite steep opposition from Democrats and turmoil within the GOP conference.

Johnson is under pressure to unite his caucus, with lawmakers raising concerns about funding for the Department of Homeland Security as the Trump administration faces scrutiny over its nationwide immigration crackdown that has at times turned violent.

House Republicans are hoping to take up the $1.2 trillion funding package passed by the Senate on Tuesday following a House Rules Committee meeting Monday. The partial shutdown began early Saturday.

GOP leadership in the House originally hoped to pass the bill under suspension of the rules, an expedited process that requires a two-thirds-majority vote, but Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries told Johnson on Saturday that Democrats would not help Republicans acquire the necessary support for the spending bill.

“I’m confident that we’ll do it at least by Tuesday,” Johnson said in a Sunday interview on NBC’s “Meet the Press.” “We have a logistical challenge of getting everyone in town, and because of the conversation I had with Hakeem Jeffries, I know that we’ve got to pass a rule and probably do this mostly on our own. I think that’s very unfortunate.”

The Senate voted Friday to pass a compromise spending package after Senate Democrats struck a deal with President Donald Trump to extend DHS funding for two weeks. The move bought Congress more time to work out a compromise on reforms for Immigration and Customs Enforcement after federal officers fatally shot two people in Minnesota earlier this month.

Speaking to host Kristen Welker on “Meet the Press,” Johnson acknowledged that “there’s been tragedies in Minnesota” — but he also blamed Democrats in the state for “inciting violence,” even as the Trump administration attempts to tamp down pressures in the state.

Johnson praised Trump’s decision to send White House border czar Tom Homan to Minneapolis, a step widely seen as a deescalation from the aggressive tactics favored by Border Patrol commander Gregory Bovino.

“[Trump] was right to deputize him over that situation,” he said of Homan on NBC. “He has 40 years of experience in Border Patrol and these issues. So I think that this is going to happen, but we need good faith on both sides. Some of these conditions and requests that they’ve made are obviously reasonable and should happen. But others are going to require a lot more negotiation.”

Johnson pushed back in particular on Democratic calls to bar federal immigration enforcement officers from wearing masks and require them to wear identification, telling Fox’s Shannon Bream: “Those two things are conditions that would create further danger.”

He also signaled an unwillingness to negotiate on Democratic demands to tighten requirements for judicial warrants for immigration operations.

Still, House Democrats remained opposed to passing the funding package as is, with Rep. Ro Khanna (D-Calif.) saying Sunday: “I’m not just a no. I’m a firm no.”

“I just don’t see how in good conscience Democrats can vote for continuing ICE funding when they’re killing American citizens, when there’s no provision to repeal the tripling of the budget,” Khanna said in a Sunday interview with Welker on NBC. “I hope my colleagues will say no.”

Jeffries also signaled Sunday that a wide gap remains between his conference and House Republicans, telling ABC’s George Stephanopoulos that the House must reach an agreement on judicial warrants “as a condition of moving forward.”

“The one thing that we’ve said publicly is that we need a robust path toward dramatic reform,” Jeffries said on ABC’s “This Week.” “The administration can’t just talk the talk, they need to walk the walk. That should begin today. Not in two weeks, today.”

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Shutdown likely to continue at least into Tuesday

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The partial government shutdown that began early Saturday morning is on track to continue at least into Tuesday, which is the earliest the House is now expected to vote on a $1.2 trillion funding package due to opposition from Democrats and internal GOP strife.

House Republican leaders have scheduled a Monday meeting of the House Rules Committee to prepare the massive Senate-passed spending bill for the floor. According to two people granted anonymity to discuss internal deliberations, the procedural measure teeing up a final vote would not happen until Tuesday, with final passage following if that is successful.

That’s one day later than GOP leaders had hoped. Their previous plan was to pass the bill with Democratic help under suspension of the rules, a fast-track process requiring a two-thirds-majority vote.

But that plan was complicated by Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries telling Speaker Mike Johnson in a private conversation Saturday that Democratic leadership would not help Johnson secure the 70 or so Democratic votes to get the measure over the line, according to the two people and another person granted anonymity to discuss the matter.

The Tuesday plan remains tentative as GOP leaders scramble to navigate tensions inside their own conference, which could make passing the procedural measure difficult. Some conservative hard-liners, for instance, want to attach a sweeping elections bill to the package.

Jeffries said in a MS NOW interview Saturday that Republicans “cannot simply move forward with legislation taking a my way or the highway approach” while noting that House Democrats are set to have “a discussion about the appropriate way forward” in a Sunday evening caucus call — first reported by Blue Light News.

He did not rule out that Democrats might support the Senate-passed spending package, which funds the majority of federal agencies through Sept. 30 while providing a two-week extension for the Department of Homeland Security — including controversial immigration enforcement agencies.

Democrats, Jeffries said, want “a robust, ironclad path to bringing about the type of change that the American people are demanding” in immigration enforcement.

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Congress

Here’s what federal programs are headed for a (possibly brief) shutdown

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Government funding is set to lapse at midnight Friday for the military and many domestic programs, but cash will continue to flow at a slew of federal agencies Congress already funded.

House leaders are aiming to send a funding package to President Donald Trump Monday, days after the Senate passed the legislation just before the deadline to avert a partial shutdown.

The effect on most federal programs is expected to be minor, and employees who are furloughed would miss just one day of work if the House acts on schedule — which is not assured.

This time, many of the services that have the greatest public impact when shuttered — like farm loans, SNAP food assistance to low-income households and upkeep at national parks — will continue. That’s because Congress already funded some agencies in November and earlier this month, including the departments of Energy, Commerce, Justice, Agriculture, Interior and Veterans Affairs, as well as military construction projects, the EPA, congressional operations, the FDA and federal science programs.

Still, the spending package congressional leaders are trying to clear for Trump’s signature next week contains the vast majority of the funding Congress approves each year to run federal programs, including $839 billion for the military.

Besides the Pentagon, funding will lapse for several major nondefense agencies beginning early Saturday morning.

That includes federal transportation, labor, housing, education and health programs, along with the IRS, independent trade agencies and foreign aid. The departments of Homeland Security, State and Treasury will also be hit by the shutdown.

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