Connect with us

Congress

Bellwether suburban county’s red shift is now at the center of both parties’ future identities in New York

Published

on

ALBANY, New York — The statewide blue wave in which New York Democrats made big gains in nearly every corner of the state this November had one glaring exception: Nassau County.

While Empire State Democrats scored one of their best election nights on record, Republicans held down America’s archetypal suburb, with GOP candidates notching an 11-0 record in contested executive branch races in Nassau. In the marquee race, County Executive Bruce Blakeman improved on his 2021 performance after four years of wholeheartedly embracing President Donald Trump.

Blakeman is hoping to ride that success into next year: He launched a 2026 gubernatorial bid Tuesday touting his electability.

“While Democrats made gains nationwide on election night, the Republican party shined bright on Long Island,” the narrator of his launch video said. “Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman won a Democrat County by 12 percent.”

Whether Blakeman’s GOP primary opponent Rep. Elise Stefanik can replicate those numbers will be a key question facing Republican voters next June. Blakeman told Blue Light News his recent win came down to holding fast to pocketbook issues, hiring more cops and connecting with groups Republicans have ignored in the past. Others say his decisive victory might simply stem from a strong local party organization.

Whatever the secret of his success, the importance of Nassau extends far beyond next year’s gubernatorial race. It will also be crucial to determining control of the House.

And it is not just Republicans whose future stands to be shaped by Nassau’s political trends. Democrats have spent years bickering over whether party members in the county have focused too much on distancing themselves from the far left. Moderate Nassau Democrats say progressives like New York City mayor-elect Zohran Mamdani have made their jobs tougher.

“Most of the television commercials that they put up were all about ‘Mamdani, Mamdani, democratic socialists,’” Nassau Democratic Chair Jay Jacobs said. “Their tagline was, in effect, ‘Vote Republican and save Nassau County from becoming a socialist county.’ That plays well with a moderate audience.”

Democratic struggles in Nassau County have become a regular through line, revisited with each election cycle. While it was at the heart of the national blue wave in 2017 and 2018, the GOP won big there in 2021 local races. Four years after a 16-point Democratic win in Nassau in the 2018 gubernatorial election, the party suffered an 11-point loss in 2022. Then in 2024, Trump became the first Republican presidential candidate to win Nassau County since 1988.

How that pattern plays out next year remains an open question.

Rep. Laura Gillen, a Democrat in a battleground Nassau swing district, “is the number one target in the country for Republicans,” said Larry Levy, executive dean of the National Center for Suburban Studies at Hofstra University. “They really think they can win in that district and they’re going to put an unlimited amount of money in.”

An effective GOP candidate at the top of the ticket would help considerably toward that end.

Stefanik’s team disputed the idea that Blakeman has a magic formula for electoral success, pointing to his unsuccessful bids for state comptroller, New York City mayor and U.S. Senate. He last ran for higher office when he lost a congressional bid in 2014 — the same year Stefanik flipped a House seat with a 21-point victory.

Yet Blakeman believes he has a solid case to make.

He attributed his success this election cycle to holding true to past promises to not raise taxes and hire more police officers, while also building connections to groups Republicans haven’t focused on in the past. He rattled off a long list of outreach efforts undertaken by the county in recent years, such as a Feliz Navidad celebration and a Lunar New Year festival.

“We also reached out to the Muslim community and talked to them about things that were important to them,” Blakeman said. “I appointed the first Muslim police chaplain in Nassau County history, and shortly I will be appointing the first Sikh police chaplain.”

Trump, who has become politically toxic in many New York suburbs, will undoubtedly be a factor in next year’s race. On Monday, he described both Blakeman and Stefanik as “great,” and while he has not yet expressed a preference for either, that could change. And arguably no local official in the northeast has done more to associate themselves with Trumpism than Blakeman.

Under his leadership, Nassau County spent more than $1 million on police overtime hosting Trump for a campaign rally last fall. Blakeman has been New York’s most visible opponent of letting transgender girls participate in female sports and has had the county partner with ICE on immigration enforcement efforts. In late November, he announced a wall of surveillance on the Queens border to conduct facial recognition on visitors from Mamdani’s New York.

“I never ran away from President Trump,” Blakeman told Blue Light News. “I supported President Trump, and I was very vocal about my support for President Trump”

The approach is a far cry from how Nassau County Democrats have handled Mamdani.

Jacobs, who also serves as chair of the state Democratic Party, famously distanced himself from the mayor-elect in the fall, declining to offer an endorsement after Mamdani became the Democratic nominee. And he’s hardly the only local Democrat who falls into that category: “Mamdani’s reckless agenda filled with unachievable promises and contempt for certain groups threatens NY’s economy and safety,”Gillen said this fall.

Democrats based in New York City contend this is exactly what their counterparts on Long Island should not be doing.

“When the leading Democrats in the county are telling everyone that the Democratic Party sucks, it’s hard to convince voters to vote for your party,” said state Sen. Deputy Leader Mike Gianaris, who heads the Senate Democrats’ campaign arm. “They should start looking inside themselves and start trying to make a positive case for Democrats, or I think they can expect this to continue.”

Unlike in Nassau, Long Island’s neighboring Suffolk County showed significant signs of the pendulum swinging back to the left this November. Democrats grew their share of the vote by 10 or more points in four of the five top town races, and they flipped seats in places like Shelter Island and Riverhead.

Democrats haven’t been completely without hopeful signs in Nassau either.

They won a victory last month in a newly-drawn county legislative district, denying Blakeman’s allies a supermajority and giving them the ability to put their foot in the door during budget talks. In 2024, Tom Suozzi broke the Republicans’ hold on four congressional seats by winning a special election. Gillen won another seat later that year, thanks to a two-point victory in a district that favored Democrats by 11 points as recently as 2020.

But even the good Democratic vibes in the 2024 congressional races underscored a long-standing issue in the county — winning back the seat in Suozzi’s special election would not have been necessary if local Democrats had done opposition research into the now-disgraced former Rep. George Santos before the 2022 election.

The failure to do so illustrates another reality in the area. After decades of controlling Nassau, Republicans built a well-oiled machine.

“The relative strength of the organizations — it’s just not even close,” said Levy, who likened the GOP’s political operation to that of former Chicago Mayor Richard Daley. “At a time when all over the country, political organizations are shrinking in influence for a variety of reasons, Nassau still has an old-fashioned Daley machine-like operation that can get a vote out in ways that the Democrats can’t.”

Democrats didn’t do much to end that structural disadvantage when they won power in 2017.

“Arguably the Democrats could have, should have done more to leverage the patronage opportunities to raise money and create more foot soldiers to work politically,” Levy said. But any steps they made in that direction were halted when the political winds started to shift: “Anything that happened before the pandemic almost doesn’t count.”

Jacobs, who said his party was outspent by a more than four-to-one margin in the county executive’s race, didn’t disagree with the characterization.

“They raised and spent $15 million. That’s an extraordinary amount of money,” he said. “That was supplemented by both county mailings and town mailings that, in my judgement and other peoples’ judgement, were campaign-like pieces paid for by the taxpayer.”

That onslaught of ads built off years of tying local Democrats to policies like bail reform or high-density housing or candidates like Mamdani, former New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio and Gov. Kathy Hochul. The Democratic brand “is really doing poorly” in the area, Jacobs said.

“People — even at the doors when you’re collecting petitions, even when they’re Democrats — are upset with our party,” he said. “That’s been driven by a really well-funded consistent campaign by Republicans to set the narrative that all Democrats are either wild extremists themselves or so afraid of them that they bend to whatever the far left in our party wants. Neither of which is true, but too many people believe it.”

Nassau Republicans, meanwhile, aren’t shying away from a president whom the opposition characterizes as an extremist.

“In a county with 110,000 more Democrats, to win by 35,000 votes is something that is very special,” Blakeman said. “You have to be true to your values, and not a phony.”

Continue Reading
Click to comment

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Congress

GOP hard-liners threaten to tank FISA vote

Published

on

House GOP hardliners are threatening to tank the FISA rule shortly on the House floor as Speaker Mike Johnson tries to force through a five year extension, according to four people granted anonymity to speak about plans not yet public.

They’re livid over the “inexplicable 5 year extension, the fake warrant requirement, and the walk back of the promise from this afternoon to include CBDC,” according to one of the people, referring negotiations to prohibit a central bank digital currency.

Continue Reading

Congress

‘The original sin:’ Hill Republicans blame White House for slow-walking FISA sales pitch

Published

on

A messy GOP battle over a key government spy authority boiled over in the House this week — but the crisis was months in the making.

White House officials and Republican Hill leaders have tried to pressure GOP hard-liners into approving a clean, 18-month extension of Section 702 of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act that President Donald Trump demanded. But amid a GOP rebellion on Capitol Hill, Speaker Mike Johnson Thursday afternoon punted a vote on the measure for the second day in a row.

The program expires Monday night. Senators went home for the weekend as Johnson continued to pursue a compromise with the holdouts for an extension as long as three years with reforms, and raced to hold a vote.

Now, the finger-pointing among Republicans is rampant and temperatures are running high.

A band of House ultraconservatives — who have long been concerned that warrantless government surveillance of foreign individuals could sweep up data on Americans — shot down Trump and GOP leaders’ long-held plans for the 18-month extension with no reforms earlier this week.

“A clean extension ain’t going to move on the floor,” Rep. Chip Roy of Texas, one of the head House GOP holdouts, warned earlier this week.

In interviews with more than two dozen Republican lawmakers and aides on Capitol Hill involved in the talks, many of whom were granted anonymity to speak freely about the contentious policy debate, the consensus is that the White House is largely responsible for the current breakdown as GOP factions snipe and assign blame.

“This is why we shouldn’t wait until the last minute on these things,” one House Republican fumed Thursday. A congressional GOP aide added, “The White House was too late to come to a decision. That was the original sin.”

A senior White House official disputed the characterization from some Hill Republicans that the administration had taken too long to plead their case. They pointed to a briefing in the Situation Room months ago with Republican lawmakers, during which “the president heard arguments on both sides of the issue.”

The official added, “We’ve had multiple briefings from senior officials, both on the House and Senate side, about the desirability of this program. Again, going back months ago.”

Trump told House Intelligence Chair Rick Crawford (R-Ark.) and House Judiciary Chair Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) that he wanted a clean extension, without reforms, in February. The president arrived at this position, a second White House official said, after “the administration completed a policy process through the interagency and advised POTUS that a clean extension was the best course and solicited views on length from Blue Light News.”

There was also coordination between the White House and Capitol Hill, according to three people familiar and the senior White House official: Johnson requested the reauthorization run for 18 months, and Trump agreed.

The administration succeeded in convincing Jordan, who had previously pushed for changes to Section 702, to publicly support a clean extension following a White House meeting on the subject.

But ultraconservatives on Capitol Hill were harder to convince, with some House Republicans correctly predicting two months ago they were going to have issues as the vote drew nearer. Trump has forced those hard-liners to cave in recent months on other fights, but the spy powers legislation was one area where members have not been as willing to relent.

While Trump officials made outreach to members at least two months ago, Hill engagement ramped up in the days leading up to the scheduled vote. That has included appeals to lawmakers from CIA Director John Ratcliffe, Deputy CIA Director Michael Ellis and Joint Chiefs Chair Gen. Dan Caine, according to five people. Ellis has made personal phone calls to members, according to two people familiar with the pressure campaign.

White House deputy chief of staff James Blair, White House Legislative Affairs chief James Braid and other legislative affairs officials have also been calling individual House Republicans and working through negotiation details, according to six other people with direct knowledge of the conversations.

Noticeably absent from this outreach is Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard. Her office plays a statutory role in overseeing Section 702 and has historically been a key proponent of the powerful spy powers.

Gabbard in early February expressed concerns to Trump about reauthorizing the statute without additional privacy guardrails, as Blue Light News reported earlier Thursday, though her appeal appears to have been unsuccessful.

And while the administration’s position on Section 702 came into focus in February, there were signs earlier in the month that its position had not fully crystallized. Officials meeting with the Senate Intelligence Committee at that time refused to divulge the White House’s stance on extending the surveillance power and adding reforms, according to five people with knowledge of the meeting. The exchange frustrated Republicans and Democrats on the panel, who are generally supportive of the surveillance program.

Due to a quirk in the law, the administration will still be able to operate the program for nearly a year even if it is not renewed, and privacy advocates have argued that Monday is a false deadline. But without the law on the books, communications providers like Google and AT&T, which the government tasks to surveil foreign messages, could stop complying with those orders.

But White House officials want an extension codified now, all the same. They have been arguing in conversations with lawmakers that the country is at war and national security is paramount amid threats from Iran. Therefore, they say, hardliners should fall in line to back the clean extension without delay, according to five people involved in the conversations.

“The program is critical for the United States military to listen to the conversations of foreign terrorists abroad while we are engaged in a military operation in Iran. That’s what we’ve been telling individuals, as well as the elevated threat levels around the world, as well as the threat from Mexican drug cartels,” the senior White House official said.

Two groups of House GOP hard-liners, after being summoned by Trump Tuesday night, met with officials at the White House. But some of the Republicans declined the invitation.“I’ve heard everything that the executive has to say on FISA,” Freedom Caucus Chair Andy Harris (R-Md.) said in an interview that evening. That meeting, however, marked a shift: Those House Republicans who went to the White House alongside GOP leaders — among them Roy and Reps. Keith Self of Texas, Byron Donalds of Florida, Clay Higgins of Louisiana, Morgan Griffith of Virginia and Warren Davidson of Ohio — took the opportunity to begin negotiations about a framework for a possible agreement around the use of warrants to access certain information.

The discussions included how the White House and GOP leadership needed to make good on a months-old promise to advance legislation that would ban a central bank digital currency. Enough House GOP holdouts late Thursday evening were threatening to still tank the procedural vote to advance the extension if the White House didn’t address the digital currency matter, according to four people with direct knowledge of the matter. “Unless it’s included, there’s enough votes to kill the rule,” Rep. Ralph Norman (R-S.C.) said in an interview Thursday afternoon. But other Republicans, White House officials and Senate GOP leadership are warning that attaching the measure directly would tank the FISA bill.

In exchange for making these concessions, GOP leaders and the White House have been pushing for a Section 702 extension that’s longer than 18 months and closer to three years.

The senior White House official also said Thursday the administration has “focused in on potentially having conversations about reforms to the program that we think would strengthen protections for American civil liberties … those conversations are ongoing.”

Jordan, meanwhile, has been helping build support for a clean extension by privately telling some Republicans that, if they can pass this 18-month clean extension now, they could potentially work on warrant reforms later, according to three people with direct knowledge of the discussions. That’s raised some eyebrows internally among House Republicans.

The House delays are leaving barely any time for the Senate to act. Majority Leader John Thune said in an interview Thursday that he’s already started having conversations with his own members about what they would need to clear a FISA extension Monday.

Ultimately, even if GOP leaders strike a deal on changes to the current proposed extension, it could risk support for reauthorization among key Democrats, who Republicans will need to pass the final legislation in a narrowly-divided House. While some House Democrats are expected to help Republicans get the final bill across the finish line — including top Democrat on the House Intelligence Committee, Rep. Jim Himes of Connecticut — Democratic leaders have so far declined to shore up the votes for any fast-tracked process.

“I am deeply skeptical of a straightforward extension,” House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries said Thursday, adding he told Johnson a few days ago there was “great Democratic skepticism” on a clean extension.

One Democratic Hill aide said Johnson and Trump did far too little to coordinate their pitch with Democrats, who carried a razor-thin vote to re-up the law in 2024.

“They never came to us,” the aide said.

Continue Reading

Congress

GOP, Democrats blast Vought for holding back cash: ‘You don’t have the authority to impound’

Published

on

Senators from both parties chided the Trump administration Thursday for continuing to withhold funding Congress has approved, more than a year after the White House first froze billions of dollars for temporary “review.”

During White House budget director Russ Vought’s testimony before the Senate Budget Committee, Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) scolded the OMB chief for not sending hundreds of millions of dollars the Trump administration is supposed to give states throughout the year to support community services aimed at reducing poverty.

“Congress has appropriated money, and you don’t have the authority to impound it,” Grassley said about the more than $810 million Congress appropriated this year for the Community Services Block Grant program.

That program helps states fund anti-poverty services such as transportation, education and nutrition assistance that serve more than 9 million people each year.

Grassley told Vought that lawmakers “are not getting any answers” as to why the Trump administration hasn’t sent states their quarterly funding from the program. “I want those quarterly allotments released,” Grassley said.

While Vought did not directly address Grassley’s comments, he said at a different point during the hearing that “we have not impounded a single thing.”

Other senators, including Sen. Mark Warner (D-Va.), lamented federal dollars being withheld for the fund that provides capital to small banks and credit unions in underserved areas. For months lawmakers from both parties have pushed back against Trump’s plans to eliminate that program, the Treasury Department’s Community Development Financial Institutions Fund.

Continue Reading

Trending