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Capitol agenda: Democrats’ shutdown split screen

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The shutdown is barreling into a record-breaking sixth week and Senate Democrats are divided on their strategy for getting out of the morass.

On one side of the split screen, nearly a dozen Democrats are laying the groundwork for talks with Republicans that could bring an end to the partisan stalemate.

Bipartisan conversations so far have focused on passing a new funding patch to reopen federal agencies, reaching an understanding on moving full-year appropriations bills and guaranteeing a floor vote on soon-to-expire Affordable Care Act subsidies. Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-N.H.), as she left a meeting with fellow Democrats Monday night, said in an interview she hoped for a resolution in the coming days.

On the other side of that screen, many of Shaheen’s colleagues are still demanding Democrats dig in until Republicans promise to extend the ACA tax credits.

“We have the moral responsibility to stand up and fight for the 15 million people who are about to lose health care,” Sen. Bernie Sanders, a Vermont Independent who caucuses with Democrats, said in an interview Monday. “What the polling tells me, and what I believe to be true, is that the vast majority of the American people are behind us not to give in to Trump or the Republicans.”

Fellow progressive Sens. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.) and Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) are also calling on Democrats not to wave a white flag.

The Democrats’ intraparty fissure comes as Republicans grow emboldened in their own shutdown posture, with some believing they might be able to flip enough Democrats as soon as this week to pass a stopgap the House can clear for President Donald Trump’s signature.

There are signs of bipartisan momentum in the House as well, where two Democrats and two Republicans teamed up Monday to unveil the first tangible compromise framework for extending the ACA subsidies since the shutdown began (more on that below).

It’s all likely coming as a relief for Senate Republicans amid Trump’s calls to get rid of the filibuster to end the shutdown without help from Democrats — a move that would carry enormous political risks and doesn’t have the support among Republicans, anyway.

“The votes aren’t there,” Senate Majority Leader John Thune told reporters Monday.

Despite cautious optimism there are plenty of differences still to overcome, from internal strategy in both parties to the practical matter of how far out to push the end date for a new continuing resolution.

Senators are currently debating whether to craft a funding patch that would run through December, the preference of senior appropriators, or January, desired by most Republicans. Democratic leadership hasn’t endorsed a deadline yet.

Senate Appropriations Chair Susan Collins (R-Maine) said she’s feeling hopeful about all of it, but “who knows — it could all fall apart.”

What else we’re watching:   

— House eyes possible return: House Republicans will hold a virtual conference meeting Tuesday, where Speaker Mike Johnson is expected to talk his conference through the status of government shutdown negotiations with the Senate. If the Senate can pass an amended stopgap spending measure by the end of this week, the House would likely return to session next week following more than 45 days of recess.

— Mamdani endorsement watch: It’s Election Day in New York City — and the last day for Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer to endorse Zohran Mamdani, the Democratic nominee for mayor. Schumer has given no indication he plans to do so, saying last week he was having conversations with the democratic socialist but declining to offer his public support.

Mia McCarthy, Calen Razor, Jordain Carney, Meredith Lee Hill and Jennifer Scholtes contributed to this report.

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Congress

Congress has 10 days to cut a DHS funding deal. Don’t hold your breath.

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Congress has 10 days to prevent another shutdown — this one exclusively affecting the Department of Homeland Security. There’s not much optimism about a deal.

At issue is one of the thorniest issues in national politics — federal immigration enforcement, including new guardrails for agencies and repercussions for the local jurisdictions that refuse to cooperate with them.

Already, Republicans are rejecting central demands from Democrats, including tightening warrant requirements and banning federal agents from wearing masks. Democrats are pouring cold water on a GOP push to target so-called “sanctuary cities.”

Senate Majority Leader John Thune warned Tuesday that getting an agreement to President Donald Trump’s desk by the new Feb. 13 deadline is an “impossibility.”

“We’ve got a very short timeframe in which to do this, which I argued against,” he said, referring to his opposition to the two-week DHS punt Democrats insisted on.

House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, meanwhile, said Tuesday that another short-term patch was “off the table” for Democrats.

Together those comments portend a potentially lengthy shutdown that would disproportionately impact the DHS functions that don’t involve immigration enforcement, including TSA, FEMA and the Coast Guard. That’s because agencies like ICE and Border Patrol that have been at the center of the Democratic uproar received funding through the domestic policy megabill Republicans enacted in July.

That reality had a critical mass of Senate Democrats ready to swallow full-year DHS funding last month that held agency budgets flat and passed the House with only seven Democratic votes. But that plan evaporated on Jan. 24, when DHS agents killed 37-year-old Alex Pretti on the streets of Minneapolis and sparked bipartisan calls for new strictures on the Trump administration.

Thune and other Republicans are already warning that they believe they will need to buy more time after the Feb. 13 deadline. Negotiations over an immigration enforcement deal have largely been on hold, according to several senators, as the House wrestled with the larger spending package that finally passed Tuesday.

So far, Republicans and Democrats can’t even agree on who will be doing the negotiating. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer is putting the onus on Thune. But Thune and other Republicans believe any viable deal will need to be negotiated primarily by the White House while keeping congressional Republicans “engaged.”

Sen. Brian Schatz (D-Hawaii) said Tuesday that a deal would be difficult “without Trump deciding to drag Republicans in a direction that is normally uncomfortable for them.”

“But that’s different from John Thune just declaring that he’s out,” he added. “The majority leader can’t take himself out of the negotiation.”

A lengthy DHS shutdown could be uncomfortable quickly for both parties. While ICE and Customs and Border Protection would largely have a free hand to continue immigration enforcement, the Coast Guard and TSA would lose their appropriations — potentially snarling airports and threatening paychecks for an entire military branch. The Secret Service and Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency would also be affected.

Plenty of members are skeptical there will be a deal at all, given Congress’ perennial struggle to reach an agreement on anything even tangentially related to immigration.

“I have to say that I’m a little skeptical of this entire enterprise,” Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.) said. “I’m a little skeptical of the entire project here of trying to lard up an appropriations bill that funds critical agencies with a whole bunch of statutory restrictions.”

Rep. Glenn Ivey (D-Md.) said of the incipient negotiation, “I can’t say it feels like good faith.”

Democrats have outlined several key demands for any negotiations and are expected to formally present a proposal “very shortly,” according to Schumer.

But while Republicans have expressed openness to some of the Democratic proposals, such as body cameras and deescalation training, there is broad opposition to requiring immigration officers to obtain judicial warrants instead of administrative warrants before seeking apprehensions. Many, including Speaker Mike Johnson, also oppose requiring federal agents to remove masks, arguing it would be a possible safety threat.

“I can tell you that we are never going to go along with adding an entirely new layer of judicial warrants,” Johnson said Tuesday. “It is unimplementable. It cannot be done, and it should not be done. It’s not necessary.”

Republicans, meanwhile, are pushing for language cracking down on “sanctuary cities” that don’t comply with ICE and CBP to be included in any agreement that includes new restrictions on those agencies. Other Republicans are mulling trying to attach bigger immigration provisions, including increasing penalties for immigrants who cross the border illegally or re-enter the country illegally.

Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) used an Oval Office bill signing with Trump Tuesday to make his pitch for a sanctuary cities crackdown as part of any negotiation to extend DHS funding.

“If you want a debate on how to solve this problem, show up next week,” he said.

Trump encouraged the push: “I hope you’re going to press that very hard,” he told Graham.

But the policies Graham and other Republicans are proposing — such as imposing criminal penalties on state and local officials who “willfully interfere” with immigration enforcement — have long been a nonstarter for Democrats.

Sen. Dick Durbin, the No. 2 Senate Democrat, said it already would be “difficult” to get his caucus to support another funding punt, noting that roughly half of his Democratic colleagues already voted against the last spending package.

And trying to link sanctuary cities to the debate over immigration enforcement tactics, Durbin added, is “not realistic.”

“There’s so many different versions of sanctuary law in these communities and states,” he said. “What we’re talking about is funding this agency, but making sure there are reforms before funding.”

Other Senate Democrats who voted for the spending deal last week — including Sen. Patty Murray (D-Wash.), the top Democrat on the Appropriations Committee — are already warning that Republicans shouldn’t count on their votes again for another punt.

Another senior Democratic appropriator, Sen. Jeanne Shaheen of New Hampshire, said she believed there was enough time to get a deal if negotiators were “committed.”

“But it would help if they start negotiating,” Shaheen said.

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Congress

Powell pardon wouldn’t end Fed blockade, Tillis says

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A presidential pardon of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell would not end Sen. Thom Tillis’ one-man blockade of central bank nominees, the North Carolina Republican said Tuesday.

Only the Justice Department resolving its investigation into Powell’s Senate testimony on a massive Fed renovation project would suffice, he added, doubling down on his intention to use his vote on the Senate Banking Committee as a bulwark against any attempt to dilute the bank’s independence.

Tillis is the main obstacle to the swift confirmation of Kevin Warsh, President Donald Trump’s nominee to replace Powell as Fed chair. He has vowed to oppose any Fed nominee until the Powell investigation ends.

A pardon could be a fast and definitive way for Trump to end any legal peril for Powell, but Tillis called the idea “silly” and a “mistake” because it could imply that Powell is guilty of committing perjury during his appearance last year before the Banking Committee.

“A pardon to me almost validates the whole notion for the investigation,” Tillis said. “If they think they’ve got a valid case, then we’ll just see it through to the end.”

With Republicans holding a 13-11 majority on the Banking panel, Tillis’ opposition is enough to prevent Warsh from getting advanced out of committee unless he gets support from Democrats on the panel.

Tillis said Tuesday that he thought Warsh would be a “fine” Fed chair “at some point in the future if not this Congress, then the next Congress, if they don’t get this investigation done.”

“I’m not budging one inch,” he added. “This is foundational to Fed independence and if you reward this sort of behavior and there’s no compelling evidence that could convince me or a jury that he’s guilty of it then you’ve got to stand on Fed independence.”

Trump batted down a question Monday about whether he would ask prosecutors to drop the Powell case in order to clear a path for Warsh. He instead told reporters that Jeanine Pirro, the U.S. attorney for D.C., would “take it to the end and see.”

Responding to Trump’s remarks, Tillis said it showed “an area where we’re in agreement this week — we’re both willing to go all the way.”

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Congress

Congress ends shutdown, approves $1.2T in funding — and sets up DHS cliff

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Congress approved a spending package Tuesday afternoon that secures funding for the vast majority of federal agencies through September, ending the second government shutdown in the span of four months.

But what’s left unfinished — funding for the Department of Homeland Security — will be a doozy, with partisan tensions over President Donald Trump’s immigration enforcement agenda threatening another lapse for the embattled department that also includes TSA, FEMA and other crucial agencies.

The package the House passed in a bipartisan 217-214 vote Tuesday afternoon only funds DHS through next week. Democrats are refusing to support months of additional cash until Republicans agree to rein in the actions of ICE and Border Patrol agents following the fatal shootings last month of two U.S. citizens in Minnesota.

If Republicans don’t concede to enacting significant new mandates for DHS by the new Feb. 13 deadline, the department many Democrats have called “rogue” will face another funding lapse or short-term patch.

“We have a list that we want done, and we aren’t settling for half-measures,” Rep. Pete Aguilar (D-Calif.), the No. 3 party leader, told reporters Tuesday. He warned that if Senate Majority Leader John Thune and Speaker Mike Johnson “don’t want to come to the table and negotiate real reform, then they’re going to have to explain to the American public why they’re shutting down agencies.”

Trump is expected to swiftly sign the legislation, ending the partial government shutdown that began early Saturday morning after the Senate passed the altered package, punting the measure back to the House.

By advancing the trillion-dollar package, Congress has approved more than 95 percent of the government funding it approves each year to run federal agencies, after clearing full funding for some agencies in November and another slate in January.

Under the legislation that now awaits the president’s signature, the Pentagon and all remaining domestic agencies besides DHS will get new funding levels through the end of the fiscal year, which started with the longest government shutdown in U.S. history.

“We finalized true, bipartisan, bicameral bills to fully fund our government in a member driven, district focused way,” House Appropriations Chair Tom Cole (R-Okla.) said on the House floor. “Funding the government is not an optional exercise. It’s the most basic duty we have in Congress.”

Only 21 Democrats voted yes on passage, highlighting the challenge leaders face over the next 10 days in negotiating new immigration enforcement rules that can attract enough Democratic support for funding DHS into the fall.

“I refuse to send another cent to Stephen Miller or Kristi Noem,” Rep. Jim McGovern (D-Mass.) said this week. “They are undermining our Constitution, and the department they run is murdering American citizens in the streets.”

To ensure Democratic leaders on both sides of the Capitol are aligned heading into negotiations with Republicans over changes to DHS immigration operations, Jeffries is set to meet Tuesday afternoon with Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer.

House Democrats are demanding that Jeffries have a seat at the bargaining table after many groused this week about the altered funding package Senate Democrats brokered with the White House.

“They need to talk to Hakeem — the House and Senate are equal partners,” Rep. Debbie Dingell (D-Mich.) said in an interview.

House Democrats contend that they have a better understanding of Trump’s immigration enforcement actions in communities throughout the country, as well as the sentiment of Americans.

“We are the ones that are closest to the anger and the frustration of our constituents,” Rep. Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.) said in an interview. “We need [Senate Democrats] to start negotiating with us and carrying out our demands instead of constantly caving to Republicans.”

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