Politics
The Trump Supreme Court is back for another term as Election Day nears
Welcome back, Deadline: Legal Newsletter readers. As if there isn’t enough going on with Election Day just weeks away, the Supreme Court is starting a new term. Chief Justice John Roberts and company are coming off a term that featured (among other things) them giving Donald Trump broad criminal immunity and approving his latest presidential run despite his involvement in the Jan. 6 insurrection.
A big open question heading into November is: Will the Republican-appointed majority find a way to put the Republican nominee back in office?
For a brief refresher on how this works: The court hears oral arguments in two-week sessions through April, issuing rulings on a rolling basis and usually wrapping up by late June. Sometimes, the justices stretch into July, as they did when capping off last term with the immunity case. They can also get emergency appeals at any time, which is how last-minute election challenges could reach them on the so-called shadow docket.
So, what legal mischief awaits, besides the election (a big “besides,” I know)? It’s a developing story because the court adds cases as the term proceeds. The court just granted a bunch Friday, including one about gun-maker liability. Heading into the last term, the court hadn’t yet added some of the most significant disputes, like the immunity appeal the justices took up in February. An example of another pending petition the court could still accept is former Trump White House chief of staff Mark Meadows’ bid to move his Georgia state election subversion charges to federal court; that would add yet another wrinkle to the already-hobbled case against Trump, Meadows and others.
But so farsome of the cases the justices are slated to hear involve transgender rights“ghost guns” and a First Amendment challenge to a Texas law requiring age verification to access sexual content online.
The “ghost guns” appeal — over regulating kits for making untraceable weapons at home — will be heard Tuesday at the court that OK’d deadly bump stocks last term. Wednesday features an unusual capital case hearing from Oklahoma, where even the state says that death row inmate Richard Glossip should get a new trial because of prosecutorial misconduct. But instead of just ordering a new trial outright, the court that backed the Trump-era execution spree has appointed a third party to argue why Glossip — who maintains his innocence — should still be put to death. Even former Trump administration official Ken Cuccinelli thinks the court shouldn’t force this execution.
While the justices declined to save Trump from his 2020 defeat, they’re coming off an unusually Trump-friendly term.
On the election front, the court has already fielded some emergency appeals in recent weeks. The justices divided in partially backing Republican efforts to restrict Arizona voting in August, while last month unanimously rejecting third-party bids from Jill Stein and Robert F. Kennedy Jr. to be on the ballot in Nevada and New Yorkrespectively. We’ll be closely watching the beleaguered court — which faces calls for reform — as more voting-related appeals inevitably reach Washington in the coming weeks. While the justices declined to save Trump from his 2020 defeat, they’re coming off an unusually Trump-friendly term.
The former president’s four criminal cases make the election stakes very real for him. If he wins in November, he can dismiss his two federal prosecutions: the election subversion case in Washington and the classified documents case in Florida. The election case is back in the D.C. trial court, where U.S. District Judge Tanya Chutkan is tasked with figuring out what the high court’s vague immunity test means. The justices can review Chutkan’s work again before any trial goes forward, which wouldn’t happen until long after the election (that is, if Trump loses and can’t kill the case). Smith is separately appealing U.S. District Judge Aileen Cannon’s documents case dismissal to a federal appeals court, where outside groups are calling for the Trump-appointed judge’s ouster.
And finally, presidents can’t pardon or dismiss state casesbut Trump’s Georgia and New York ones could be even further delayed if he wins next month’s election. The Georgia case is already tied up with a pretrial appeal over the defense bid to disqualify Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis. Meanwhile, after Election Day, Judge Juan Merchan in New York is set to decide Nov. 12 whether the immunity ruling upends Trump’s May guilty verdicts for falsifying business records. The GOP nominee’s already-delayed sentencing is set for Nov. 26, but only if Merchan rules against the defense on immunity. Yet, even if Merchan rejects Trump on Nov. 12, the latest sentencing date is still uncertainbecause the former president will likely launch an immediate appeal, potentially all the way to the justices.
So whether it’s in the election, Trump’s legal cases or both, the high court has multiple opportunities ahead to shape Trump’s — and the country’s — future.
Have any questions or comments for me? I’d love to hear from you! Please emaildeadlinelegal@nbcuni.comfor a chance to be featured in a future newsletter.
Jordan Rubin is the Deadline: Legal Blog writer. He was a prosecutor for the New York County District Attorney’s Office in Manhattan and is the author of “Bizarro,” a book about the secret war on synthetic drugs. Before he joined BLN, he was a legal reporter for Bloomberg Law.
WASILLA, Alaska — Three weeks out from Election Day, President Donald Trump took a helicopter to a plane to another helicopter to a motorcade to an ice hockey rink in Alaska’s Matanuska-Susitna Valley, traversing nearly 4,000 miles over more than eight hours to turn out his base here to help Republicans defend the Senate.
But Trump’s trek might not be enough to save Sen. Dan Sullivan, who’s running in a tougher-than-expected race against Democrat Mary Peltola in a state where the president’s approval rating is underwater and independents outnumber both Republicans and Democrats.
Alaska strategists and voters who spoke to Blue Light News acknowledged that Sullivan faces a difficult path to reelection, despite Trump’s time investment and the outside money pouring in.
“Very conservative MAGA voters can’t vote for you harder,” said Scott Kendall, a veteran political strategist who worked on two of Alaska GOP Sen. Lisa Murkowski’s campaigns and was chief of staff to former Alaska Gov. Bill Walker. “Donald Trump’s support in this current climate is both a blessing and a curse.”
Even some Trump supporters at the Tuesday night rally admitted the outlook appeared bleak.
“I think Alaska’s turning blue,” said Matt Niessink, a 45-year-old general contractor from Wasilla. He said he had voted for Trump three times and planned to support Republicans this year.
What did he wish the president would do differently? “I wish he’d shut his mouth sometimes and not be such a pompous ass,” Niessink said.
The president was in Wasilla — population 10,556 — because the outlook is darkening for his party in a state he carried by 13 points just two years ago. In a midterm year defined by the cost of gas and groceries, the Last Frontier has been hit particularly hard, with the average price of diesel nearing $7 per gallon. In the Senate race, Peltola is flush with cash and leads Sullivan in most polls. MAGA Inc., the cash-rich Trump-aligned super PAC, is increasingly focusing on Alaska as one in a slate of states that can help Republicans hold the Senate.
Enter Trump, who has been spending the cycle’s crucial final weeks holding rallies in red states to juice support among his base, which tends to see depressed turnout in years when he’s not on the ballot.
“That was a lot of flying,” the president said at the top of his remarks. “In fact, they were thinking about canceling. They said, ‘Sir, you’re very busy, this is very tough.’” But, Trump continued, he refused to cancel for a state he won three times.
Echoing his comments at other red-state rallies, Trump asked the roaring crowd for “one big favor” — to “pretend that I’m on the ballot, because every time I’ve been on the ballot, we win.” He repeated his promise that Americans will receive $5,000 dividends if Republicans hold both chambers.
“What this is about is getting out the vote,” Sullivan told reporters before Trump’s speech. “A rising tide of enthusiasm lifts all the candidates.”
Unlike some other Republican candidates in tight races, Sullivan has shied away from distancing himself from the least popular aspects of Trump’s presidency.
Sullivan proclaimed on stage at the rally that “the conflict in the Middle East is temporary. The true forever war is the national Democrats’ war against Alaska oil and gas and our jobs.” And although a campaign aide released a statement condemning Trump’s move to import Russian diesel, Sullivan did not join four of his Republican Senate colleagues, including Murkowski, who called on Trump to reverse the decision.
Art Hackney, a veteran Republican strategist in Alaska, said that “most of the people who support” Sullivan “think that he should” break more with the president.
Hackney, who runs a pro-Sullivan super PAC called “We Stand with Dan,” attributed that choice to loyalty — but suggested the president’s demand of fealty, and treatment of frequent dissenter Murkowski, could also be part of Sullivan’s calculus.
“A lot of his longtime supporters and the people who are in the industries that would benefit from that wish he would be more blunt,” Hackney said. “But with what Murkowski has done, if Dan did something considered a disrespectful trigger or something, what do you think would happen? It could well have implications for things that affect Alaska’s economy.”
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Some top congressional Republicans have privately concluded that it is likely impossible for them to keep control of the House of Representatives in the midterm elections, and they are now focused on limiting the scale of the defeat and salvaging the party’s Senate majority.
Five senior Republican lawmakers, all granted anonymity to speak candidly about their party’s dire position, told Blue Light News the House had all but slipped away.
One senior House Republican said the GOP’s goal at this point was to “save as many Republican seats as we can.” The president, this person said, was not helping.
“President Trump has made this election all about himself,” the lawmaker said. “Now we have to survive that political storm.”
A second Republican member of Congress said the movement of campaign advertising made plain which side was in control of the midterms. This lawmaker predicted Democrats would pick up about 10 seats, more than enough to take control of the chamber.
Even in newly redistricted red states like Florida and Texas, this person said, Republican candidates were “hanging on with their fingernails.”
Republicans have already fallen back from several contested House districts that they feel are no longer winnable, including those held by Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks of Iowa and Tom Kean Jr. of New Jersey. Trump carried their districts just two years ago. The party last week gave up on an Omaha-based district held by retiring Rep. Don Bacon.
Trump officials and other top GOP operatives say more candidates may be cut off in the coming days, in order to shift advertising money to races where it can make more of a difference. Republican groups have already given up on multiple races where they once hoped to unseat Democratic lawmakers.
The Republican Party is under extreme pressure across the Midwest, where it is now spending heavily to defend Senate seats in once-reliably MAGA states like Iowa, Nebraska and Kansas.
Bacon, a maverick often at odds with the White House, said there was no mystery in his party’s political tribulations.
“I’ve talked to some who are making these decisions: The biggest problem is the president’s polling numbers and unfavorables,” Bacon said.
White House officials insist they’re not giving up on either chamber of Congress. In a statement, White House spokeswoman Liz Huston said Trump remained “committed to maintaining Republican majorities in both the House and Senate.”
As he departed on Tuesday to campaign in Alaska for embattled GOP Sen. Dan Sullivan, Trump professed optimism about the midterms but acknowledged that sitting presidents typically see their party lose seats in the off year.
“But I’m doing a tour right now and I’m doing rallies,” Trump added. “The level of enthusiasm for the Republican Party is way up.”
House Speaker Mike Johnson went even further, flatly declaring during a campaign stop in deep-red Texas that “the polling is wrong” in showing his party on the brink of a broad defeat.
Yet at a tactical level, the Republican Party’s moves to shift money away from defending the House and toward saving the Senate are clear enough. In recent days, the Congressional Leadership Fund, the top super PAC for House Republicans, canceled advertising for key House candidates in Nebraska and Iowa and allowed the Senate Leadership Fund – a Republican group focused on the upper chamber – to swoop in and claim the airtime to support Nebraska Sen. Pete Ricketts and Rep. Ashley Hinson, who is running for Senate in Iowa.
“These are not the moves of a party that’s going to keep the House,” a third Republican lawmaker said.
In statements to Blue Light News, both CLF and the National Republican Congressional Committee said they had no intention of giving up on the fight for control of the House.
NRCC spokesperson Mike Marinella said districts are won “one by one,” and that the GOP has “the financial firepower and ground game needed to win.”
Chris Winkelman, president of CLF, said his group would keep moving money around to maximize the impact nationally.
The goal, he said, was to “keep the pressure on the most vulnerable Democrats and preserve a path to 218 seats.”
Former Rep. Carlos Curbelo, a Florida Republican who lost his swing seat in Trump’s first midterm election eight years ago, said his former colleagues were clear-eyed about where the election seemed to be headed.
“The environment is about as tough as one could expect,” Curbelo said. “There is no one who has privately stated that they believe Republicans can hold the House — not in recent weeks, anyway.”
Megan Messerly, Lauren Fedor, Lisa Kashinsky and Myah Ward contributed to this report.
Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff said Tuesday he will not run for president in 2028 and committed to serving a full six-year Senate term if reelected.
“I have zero interest in running for president. I’m not running for president. I’m running for reelection to the Senate,” Ossoff said during a Georgia Senate debate against Republican Rep. Mike Collins.
Asked by Greg Bluestein of The Atlanta Journal-Constitution whether he would serve his full term if he wins in November, Ossoff replied: “Yes, I will.”
The remarks are Ossoff’s most forceful rejection yet of a potential 2028 presidential bid even as his name has repeatedly surfaced in national Democrats’ conversations about possible contenders for the party’s nomination. His public commitment to a full Senate term on Tuesday is the latest of his campaign’s many efforts to tamp down that speculation.
Ossoff gained national attention this year given his strong fundraising numbers, his consistent lead in public polling against Collins and his ability to generate viral moments on the campaign trail, particularly through his attacks on President Donald Trump. Democrats are bullish about Ossoff’s ability to hold onto his Senate seat — so much so that the Democratic-aligned Senate Majority PAC said Tuesday it was removing its ad spending in Georgia for the week.
He’s also taken steps to boost the state Democratic party in Georgia, a perennial battleground that has been and will be key to winning the presidency. If November brings historic wins up and down the ballot, Ossoff will get some of the credit — and he’ll have confirmed his status as a leader in the swing state.
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