Congress
White House ramps up sales pitch for Trump tax plan
The White House is stepping up its efforts to sell the GOP megabill ahead of an impending Senate vote.
The legislation is far from finalized, but the Council of Economic Advisers is sending its first analysis of the Senate bill to Congress Wednesday. The report obtained by POLITICO is based on the Senate Finance Committee draft released last week.
The analysis contrasts the economic and fiscal impact of the party’s signature domestic policy legislation with letting President Donald Trump’s 2017 tax cuts expire at the end of the year — a cliff Senate GOP leaders and the White House are leaning into as they try to sway their holdouts.
“The [One Big Beautiful Bill Act] will establish a strong foundation for economic prosperity by increasing investment, raising GDP, and boosting resources for American families in the form of higher wages and a lower tax burden,” the CEA wrote in its analysis.
The Senate tax plan would create more than $100 billion in investment and more than 1 million new jobs over the 10-year budget window, according to the report. It’s also estimating the economic growth sparked by the tax plan would create between $2.1 to $2.3 trillion in deficit reduction, as well as help decrease the overall debt.
The analysis is significantly rosier than projections from most other economists, who doubt that the Republican plan will do much for growth because the tax breaks for businesses — which have the most potential economic oomph — are relatively small, especially compared to the 2017 bill. Their tax package this time around is much more focused on cutting taxes for individuals while piling on debt that most economists believe will push up interest rates and create a drag on growth.
The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office hasn’t yet released a full estimate for the Senate legislation, but it recently analyzed the economic effects of the House-passed bill and concluded that any government revenues sparked by growth due to the bill would be swamped by higher debt-service costs prompted by higher interest rates.
In a boon for Majority Leader John Thune, Finance Chair Mike Crapo and other Finance Committee Republicans, the White House analysis found that making some of the business tax cuts permanent would boost investment and increase wages. Permanency is a top priority for Thune, Crapo and others, who have made the case to both the House and the White House that it is worth including even though it comes with a higher price tag.
Senate Republicans are likely to use the analysis to tout their legislation — and to rebut CBO when it releases its own findings. The CEA gave a similarly positive overview of the House’s bill earlier this year, which Speaker Mike Johnson has frequently used to argue that the bill won’t add to the national debt. That has not prevented House fiscal hawks from finding fault in it, even as they voted for it; Thune & Co. are facing similar doubts from their own conservative bloc.
Brian Faler contributed to this report.
Congress
Muslim Democrats ask leaders to denounce Islamophobic attacks on Zohran Mamdani
All four Muslim Democratic House members are denouncing “racist smears” against Zohran Mamdani from lawmakers in both parties since his New York City mayoral primary win, according to a statement provided first to Blue Light News.
“The vile, anti-Muslim and racist smears from our colleagues on both sides of the aisle attacking Zohran Mamdani cannot be met with silence. These hateful, Islamophobic, and racist tropes have become so entrenched and normalized in our politics,” said Reps. Andre Carson of Indiana, Rashida Tlaib of Michigan, Ilhan Omar of Minnesota and Lateefah Simon of California in a statement.
The lawmakers said that “at a time when we are facing increased violence against elected officials, we cannot allow the attacks on Zohran Mamdani to continue” and asked for elected leaders to speak out on them.
Mamdani, who would become New York’s first Muslim mayor, has faced attacks from GOP lawmakers after his primary win this week. Rep. Nancy Mace (R-S.C.) tied him to the 9/11 terrorist attacks and Rep. Andy Ogles (R-Tenn.) called for him to be deported, among others. The left was also concerned about since-clarified comments from Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-N.Y.) about Mamdani’s rhetoric about Israel.
Critics of the democratic socialist have called some of his comments about Israel, including his defense of the phrase “globalize the intifada,” antisemitic, which he’s denied.
The Muslim lawmakers have sought a more forceful pushback from their leaders to the GOP attacks and have privately approached Democratic leadership about doing so. Speaker Mike Johnson didn’t answer a question from a reporter Friday asking him to respond to the remarks from Mace, Ogles and others.
Congress
Megabill delay ‘possible,’ Johnson says
Speaker Mike Johnson opened the door Friday to a possible megabill delay past the GOP’s self-imposed July 4 deadline.
“It’s possible … but I don’t want to even accept that as an option right now,” he told reporters as Republicans scramble to cut a series of deals with holdout members. Johnson said he had spoken with his Senate counterpart, Majority Leader John Thune, in the “last 20 minutes.”
Already time is running tight for Republicans. With the Senate not expected to start debating the bill until Saturday at the earliest, the House might not get the bill until Sunday. Johnson confirmed he plans to observe a House rule giving members at least 72 hours to review the bill before floor consideration begins.
“The House will not be jammed by anything,” he added.
Congress
Mike Johnson hails ‘progress’ toward SALT deal
The White House is close to clinching an agreement on the state and local tax deduction after a last-ditch flurry of negotiations with blue-state House GOP holdouts and Senate Republicans, according to three people granted anonymity to describe the talks.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who is brokering the politically complex deal that is key to unlocking the GOP megabill, will attend Senate Republicans lunch later today, according to a another person with direct knowledge of the matter.
Speaker Mike Johnson told reporters Friday morning that there was “a lot of progress yesterday” at an evening meeting of SALT Republicans and Treasury officials and that he expected the issue to get “resolved in a manner that everybody can live with.”
“No one will be delighted about it, but that’s kind of the way this works around here,” he said. “But the other issues [with the megabill], I think, will be resolved, hopefully today, and we can move forward.”
However, one hard-line SALT holdout, New York Rep. Nick LaLota, said: “If there was a deal, I’m not a part of it.”
Jordain Carney contributed to this report.
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