Congress
White House ramps up sales pitch for Trump tax plan
The White House is stepping up its efforts to sell the GOP megabill ahead of an impending Senate vote.
The legislation is far from finalized, but the Council of Economic Advisers is sending its first analysis of the Senate bill to Congress Wednesday. The report obtained by POLITICO is based on the Senate Finance Committee draft released last week.
The analysis contrasts the economic and fiscal impact of the party’s signature domestic policy legislation with letting President Donald Trump’s 2017 tax cuts expire at the end of the year — a cliff Senate GOP leaders and the White House are leaning into as they try to sway their holdouts.
“The [One Big Beautiful Bill Act] will establish a strong foundation for economic prosperity by increasing investment, raising GDP, and boosting resources for American families in the form of higher wages and a lower tax burden,” the CEA wrote in its analysis.
The Senate tax plan would create more than $100 billion in investment and more than 1 million new jobs over the 10-year budget window, according to the report. It’s also estimating the economic growth sparked by the tax plan would create between $2.1 to $2.3 trillion in deficit reduction, as well as help decrease the overall debt.
The analysis is significantly rosier than projections from most other economists, who doubt that the Republican plan will do much for growth because the tax breaks for businesses — which have the most potential economic oomph — are relatively small, especially compared to the 2017 bill. Their tax package this time around is much more focused on cutting taxes for individuals while piling on debt that most economists believe will push up interest rates and create a drag on growth.
The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office hasn’t yet released a full estimate for the Senate legislation, but it recently analyzed the economic effects of the House-passed bill and concluded that any government revenues sparked by growth due to the bill would be swamped by higher debt-service costs prompted by higher interest rates.
In a boon for Majority Leader John Thune, Finance Chair Mike Crapo and other Finance Committee Republicans, the White House analysis found that making some of the business tax cuts permanent would boost investment and increase wages. Permanency is a top priority for Thune, Crapo and others, who have made the case to both the House and the White House that it is worth including even though it comes with a higher price tag.
Senate Republicans are likely to use the analysis to tout their legislation — and to rebut CBO when it releases its own findings. The CEA gave a similarly positive overview of the House’s bill earlier this year, which Speaker Mike Johnson has frequently used to argue that the bill won’t add to the national debt. That has not prevented House fiscal hawks from finding fault in it, even as they voted for it; Thune & Co. are facing similar doubts from their own conservative bloc.
Brian Faler contributed to this report.
The Senate is aiming to leave town Friday for a five-week recess. They’ve got to finish a mountain of work first.
Senate Majority Leader John Thune said Thursday night the chamber is hoping to pass a stopgap funding bill as well a long-stalled Russia sanctions bill Friday. They are also set to confirm dozens of nominees and — Republicans hope —Todd Blanche as attorney general if he can win the support of Sens. Lisa Murkowski or Bill Cassidy.
Thune indicated Blanche’s fate was still uncertain and that leaders were “still working to get the final vote.”
Republicans will also hold an initial vote on a budget blueprint for a third party-line spending bill, Thune said, as well as a vote related to the SAVE America Act.
“I would expect that would be in whatever the final tranche of votes [is],” Thune said about an initial vote on the budget resolution.
Senate Republicans, as Blue Light News previously reported, don’t believe the budget resolution has the votes within the conference to be adopted. Instead, the Senate is expected to hold an initial vote that will fail to clear a simple majority threshold.
The decision to hold that vote comes after two Republican senators, granted anonymity to speak candidly, said Thursday that they believed Sen. Mike Lee of Utah or another member of the GOP’s right flank would force a vote regardless on the framework, which they are able to do under the chamber’s rules.
Any single senator could still object to expediting the chamber’s agenda, which would derail Thune’s goal of getting members out of town by the end of the day Friday.
The majority leader teed up a final vote on the Russia sanctions legislation for Friday morning, a confirmation vote for dozens of nominees and another procedural step on a stopgap funding bill.
Leadership is hoping they’ll get a deal later in the day to finish other business, including passing the CR, advancing a college sports bill, confirming Blanche and voting on the budget resolution.
“We’ve been having these conversations with Democrats trying to figure out what’s the path – so we’ve tried to set up a series of votes to deal with all the unfinished business with one exception, so anyways we’ll see how it goes,” Thune said.
A bipartisan counteroffer for ethics language in a major cryptocurrency bill would force President Donald Trump and other federal officials to divest any ownership stake in a digital asset company if it is worth more than $1 million and represents 10 percent or more of the firm’s value, according to three people with knowledge of the language who were granted anonymity to discuss private negotiations.
The restriction applies to ownership stakes in firms that obtain most of their revenue from issuance or sponsorship of digital assets, the people said.
The offer for ethics language in the crypto bill was sent to the White House last week by Sens. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) and Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.). Democrats, who rejected a previous White House-blessed GOP ethics proposal, are demanding the provision be in the bill to address concerns about the Trump family’s crypto businesses. It is unclear how exactly the language would apply to Trump, but it could require him to divest from World Liberty Financial, the crypto firm he launched with his sons.
The ethics language in the bill, known as the Clarity Act, remains the subject of ongoing discussions. Tillis told reporters Thursday afternoon that his office has had “discussions” with the White House, “but there’s no exchange of paper” so far.
The counteroffer would allow state attorneys general to sue the Justice Department for not enforcing the ethics requirements. It would also allow state AGs to sue crypto exchanges for listing assets that are in violation of the ethics requirements.
The state AG authorities have been a major sticking point in the ethics talks. Democrats say they don’t trust the Trump Justice Department to enforce any ethics rules, but Republicans have pushed back on proposals to create a role for state AGs, saying they could use the language to go after politicians in the opposite party.
Gallego said in a statement that “this sensible, bipartisan ethics deal ends Trump’s crypto grift by requiring him to divest and stops him from making one dollar more from his rug pulls.”
“If these provisions were law before Trump got into office, they would have prevented the $1.4 billion in corrupt earnings he’s made this term,” he said.
Tillis said in a statement that he has “made it clear” that he “will be voting to get on the Clarity Act but won’t support final passage without a bipartisan ethics agreement.”
“We have worked on a fair proposal that directly addresses the legitimate concerns of both Republicans and Democrats, including enforcing the law and preventing state attorneys general from abusing litigation for partisan purposes,” he said.
The White House did not immediately respond to a request for comment Thursday evening.
Republican supporters of the crypto bill have been hoping to hold an initial procedural vote on it before the Senate departs for its August recess, but GOP leaders are not currently expecting to take it up before leaving. The ethics fight is the biggest sticking point in bipartisan talks, though other outstanding policy issues also remain. The legislation needs bipartisan backing to advance.
The ethics counterproposal transmitted last week would also cover federal officials who have stakes in crypto firms that are less than $1 million. It would require any official who has an ownership stake of more than $15,000 to place those holdings in a blind trust or divest.
The ethics requirements would take effect one year after the bill is enacted into law. Officials would have six months after that to comply with the divestment requirement.
Bloomberg previously reported that the divestment proposal could let Trump take advantage of a tax break that allows federal officials who divest from certain assets to put off paying capital gains tax.
Vice President JD Vance fielded questions on Iran — lots of them — during a closed-door lunch with Senate Republicans Thursday.
Vance’s visit to Capitol Hill came as the Senate is trying to wrap up a massive to-do list ahead of a planned five-week recess — including unfinished work on a spending stopgap, Russia sanctions and cryptocurrency regulations, as well as possible votes on a party-line spending bill and the GOP elections legislation President Donald Trump desperately wants enacted.
But senators emerging from the lunch said the dominant topic was instead the administration’s ongoing negotiations with Iran over reopening the Strait of Hormuz and ending months of hostilities that have put upward pressure on prices.
Some Republicans urged Vance to provide more transparency as polling shows that the conflict is unpopular with many Americans with the midterms just three months out.
“The vice president responded to questions, and a lot of the questions were about Iran,” Sen. John Kennedy (R-La.).
Kennedy said he suggested that Vance and other top administration officials go on TV or hold a news conference to explain what was happening and why.
Vance, according to multiple GOP senators, detailed how much damage the U.S. has done to Iran’s military since strikes began in February. Republicans said they also discussed the state of the Pentagon’s munitions stockpile during the lunch amid reports that some weapons are running low — something Trump denies — and as the administration pushes for a $1.5 trillion defense infusion.
“That was one of the things I wanted to talk about because I’m on Defense [appropriations],” said Sen. John Hoeven (R-N.D.) when asked if there was a concern Congress wasn’t approving money fast enough. “We went through the impacts and timing and how they’re managing that. But they’re doing a good job.”
Trump announced earlier this month that a deal with Iran to reopen the strait, a vital global oil corridor, was imminent. Vance, according to the senators, said that the administration is “hoping” to get an agreement.
“But they have to trust and verify, not just trust — so verify whatever it is that they offer, and then maintain it,” said Sen. Mike Rounds (R-S.D.). “And if they back out, then we’re still right back in their face again.”
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